Discussion in 'Football' started by cyptomcat, May 6, 2013.
thats incredibly low for them.
Why is Ga State so quickly moving to FBS? Seems premature to me.
I would have just started at #124.
They went 1-10 last year in FCS. They won't win a game this year.
With their lone win coming over 0-11 Rhode Island.
Good news is, they didn't lose to any sub-D1 teams this year!
They're hurting now that they've lost the FBS recruiting advantage to Southern.
What FBS recruiting advantage? They're going into their first year of FBS and have been recruiting the second tier Atlanta area guys, just like Southern does in the boonies. Both schools are getting the kids that the SEC and ACC leave behind. I'm not saying they're not good talent, just that it's less. What recruit has Southern lost to an FBS school? That's why they were able to dominate FCS, now they have to use the same talent to compete in the Sunbelt. There isn't some magical elixir about being low level FBS.
You do realize FBS is a lot more than ACC/SEC and they all recruit Georgia heavily? Sun Belt, Conf USA, Big East, etc.
Yes, and Southern gets the leftovers, just like other Sunbelt, Big East, CUSA, Georgia State, etc. teams. We're in the second cut, but the rest are in the third. You do realize, that schools like North Dakota State recruit Florida hard? I just don't see a great divide between FCS and lower level FBS conferences like the Sunbelt. When you're in a conference with UL-Monroe, you're not exactly at the top. I've told him before, I think being the cream of FCS is a hell of a lot better than the dregs of FBS. No major conference is going anywhere near them, so they won't get the TV and exposure. I just don't see how that upgrades their recruiting at all.
well, you should have said that initially
Even if the divide is not 'great', there is still a divide, and it matters some.
Do you really think you'll ever compete with UGA for recruits? Do you think that losing will continue the momentum that Southern has achieved? To be honest, they have joined the new FCS, conferences that don't have a chance in hell of making the playoffs, while no longer being allowed in the playoffs. We'll see, but I just think this was a bad idea that costs more money with little, if any, payoff. It kind of reminds me of a bunch drunks coming up with something that seems good at the time.
Best case scenario for Southern is being an ECU, UCF, or a Southern Miss type. Which is respectable. Too many much better options around.
Georgia State football will be Mempiss 2.0.
Memphis has played in bowl games. GSU will just waste money and have to charge too much for tuition to make up for it. Their only saving grace is that KSU is run by similar idiots.
I've been toying with the idea of not even making this post, because someone will likely take offense to it and ignore the point, but here goes:
Be honest with yourself as a Georgia Tech fan, and consider the likelihood that GT ever makes the playoff. What percentage would you assign to that over the first five years of it being implemented?
Again, I am not trying to be facetious, I am simply making a point.
As for costing more money and there being no payoff, Southern has to add 44 scholarships. Let's assume a cost of $20,000 per year for those, which is high for Southern and is just a conservative number. The Sun Belt conference payout of $1.5 million per year covers that $880,000 with over $620,000 remaining for increased travel costs. Not to mention the doubled payout for BCS games, such as the $350,000 increase we're getting from Georgia Tech, and the $400,000+ increase we're getting from LSU.
So let's assume one money game per year, at $750,000 (a low estimate) in FBS vs $450,000 in FCS. Then adding in the $1.5 million payout and you're looking at clearing an additional million dollars to cover the increased travel costs after the scholarships are already fully funded. Then add in at least $2 million from the student fee increase (which still leaves it at a competitive level), and you're looking at a pretty decent opportunity to cover increased coaching salaries. This is also ignoring any other increase in revenue.
Of players from Georgia, 165 signed FBS offers in 2012. Only ~50 of those can go to Georgia Tech and UGA. That leaves 100 players that are leaving the state to play FBS football. Highly unlikely that all of those are going to SEC schools.
Georgia is a relatively talent rich state (fourth highest total signees, second highest ratio [source]) and Georgia Southern has a good history of winning. They'll be just fine over the long run.
Does that include the new payout from the playoffs?
Sun Belt will get $10-20 million per year from the new playoff contract too. No FCS teams getting any of that...
On top of that, also 300k per school from the playoff yearly if APR requirements are met.
I'm not arguing that it could work, but it's a really giant leap of faith with the payoff being becoming Louisiana Tech. I just think that Southern had a really good thing going. As far as the money, a couple of years of 2 or 3 wins and suddenly a lot of those numbers change. The guy who drove me and a friend to a game from Sandersville, might not be showing up.
I'm also not arguing about the talent in Georgia. I just think you're already getting the tier 3 guys. Tier 1 being SEC, tier 2 being ACC/B1G/Big XII/etc. I just don't see Southern getting those guys. You've been successful by recruiting the next tier on more than even ground with the MTSU's of the world. The new playoff system really keeps out anyone outside the big 5 and in return, you lose playoff games for, at best, a crappy bowl that Georgia Tech fans know well.
By the way, I helped take the goal posts down at the Citrus Bowl. So as Jim Carey would say, there is a chance.
The current upper end of the range is Boise St. The lower end of the range is Ga State.
I'll be happy to take my chances.
Good luck. I'm not rooting against you, just giving my two cents worth. I think the chances are that you end up in the middle of the Sunbelt and as a fan, I would prefer to be king of FCS.
The main point to the entire thing is that Georgia Southern football has not grown since 1990. Average attendance has not changed all that much. Being the most successful team to take the field in FCS didn't change the situation much. The program is stagnant, aside from moving forward to FBS.
As for "a couple of years of two or three wins", people tend to talk out of both sides of their mouth on this one. On one hand, you say that we're recruiting the same talent as the current lower tier, and that the lower tier is "the new FCS". In the next breath, you say we'll win two or three games.
Those statements don't really jive.
As for the money changing (even in the event of a few bad years), the numbers I listed aren't really impacted by success. BCS teams are still going to pay for an FBS win. Students are paying the fee whether we're winning or not. The Sun Belt payout is going to be relatively the same for a period of time. Those numbers are quite static.