Weekend Coastal games: what's our rooting interest?

Discussion in 'Football' started by 18in32, Oct 31, 2018.

  1. 18in32

    18in32 Petard Hoister

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    Thought it would be helpful to review the relevant Coastal games this weekend, and lay out how I hope they turn out. I'm ignoring all the non-head-to-head tie-break scenarios for the moment.

    Obviously it's really unlikely we get to the ACCCG, but there's no harm in cheering for it to happen. Please haters, don't hurt me.

    Fri @ 7:30 – Pitt @ UVA – We need Pitt to lose 3 of their remaining 4 games (UVA, VT, WF, Miami). We need UVA to lose 2 of their remaining 3 conference games (Pitt, GT and VT). If Pitt wins, then Pitt has to lose to Wake; if UVA wins, then UVA has to lose to VT. I think the latter is more likely than the former, so I'm cheering for UVA to win.

    Sat @ 12:15 – GT @ UNC – Obviously our slim chances become even more purely theoretical if we lose to UNC.

    Sat @ 3:45 – BC @ VT – We need VT to lose 2 of their remaining 4 games (BC, Pitt, Miami, UVA). Moreover, it'd be helpful if they beat Pitt and UVA (see above). So hopefully they lose to BC.

    Sat @ 7:00 – Duke @ Miami – It probably doesn't matter who wins this game. We need Duke to lose 1 of their remaining 4 games (Miami, UNC, Clemson, WF), and it seems really likely they'll lose to Clemson. As long as Miami loses to us, they can win their remaining games (Duke, VT, Pitt) – and in fact it would be really helpful if they beat VT and Pitt.
     
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  2. fatmike91

    fatmike91 Varsity Lurker

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    Well - on the bright side I don’t have to cheer for Duke...or Miami...

    /
     
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  3. johncu

    johncu Dodd-Like

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    I think GT and BC wins are the only two obvious rooting interests.

    Pitt/UVA is tough for me, because we're in a better position to surpass UVA, but I think they're a better team and are less likely to drop another games. Now that I say that, though, they do still have VT on the schedule which is basically a guaranteed loss for them. Go Hoos! Eat öööö Pitt!

    As for the Duke/Miami game, I hope that all 22 starters somehow simultaneously draw targeting calls on one big collision and everyone gets suspended.
     
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  4. gtphd

    gtphd Very Stable

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    I'm dreading the scenario where I'm forced to root for VPI over UVA.
     
  5. 18in32

    18in32 Petard Hoister

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    Not sure why you say that. Pitt's gotta lose 3/4 to UVA, VT, WF and Miami. UVA's gotta lose 2/3 to Pitt, GT and VT. I don't think we're in a better position to finish higher than Pitt, compared to UVA.

    What's going to be really painful is if we end up tied at 5-3 with Pitt (which happens if they lose 2 more). Nothing like that early season fart-noises loss to come back and bite you in the rear at the end of the season.
     
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  6. 18in32

    18in32 Petard Hoister

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    Sadly, that's just this week. We really need Miami to beat VT and Pitt.
     
  7. jacket67

    jacket67 Dodd-Like

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    Considering the way we pissed some games away this season, I'd be very content to lose a tie-breaker for the division, and let another team take the beat down in Charlotte.
     
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  8. GTWannaBee

    GTWannaBee Dodd-Like

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    The good thing about this week is BC, GT, and UVA are all favored to win this week, and those are the teams we need to win.
     
  9. 18in32

    18in32 Petard Hoister

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    Do you know the lines?
     
  10. gtrower

    gtrower Dodd-Like

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    Y’all need to rethink this. We damn near won the 2012 ACCCG in a very similar scenario. Not to mention Clemson is one sprained ankle away from being a sack of öööö on offense.
     
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  11. GTWannaBee

    GTWannaBee Dodd-Like

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  12. GTNUKE

    GTNUKE Varsity Lurker

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    And from another thread where I posted, ESPN's FPI win probabilities for this weekend:
    UVA over Pitt 72%
    GT over UNC 76%
    BC over VT 50%
    Clemson/Miami over Duke 99% (just Clemson is 95%, but add in Duke having to beat Miami as well and it jumps to 99%)
     
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  13. AE 87

    AE 87 Dodd-Like

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    I think there's a tie breaker we win if more than just us and Pitt are at 5-3, but I haven't taken time to think about it.
     
  14. GTNUKE

    GTNUKE Varsity Lurker

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    Agreed, I figured I would spend time thinking about that depending on how this weekend goes!
     
  15. G776T

    G776T Dodd-Like

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    We can easily win the tie-breaker in a three way tie at 5-3 vs Pitt. If Pitt wins though it means they must lose to VT and Miami.

    Pitt presumably will have their 3 losses in the coastal, so we win any 5-3, 3 or more team tie-break scenario with them as long as the head to head amongst the teams cancels out. Which it should if Miami and VT are part of the equation and they both beat Pitt. If Pitt wins and UVA ends up 5-3 we need it to be a 4 team tiebreaker, and I believe it would need to be Miami.

    If Pitt wins and loses to VT and Miami

    GT, Pitt, VT, GT goes
    GT, Pitt, UVa, Pitt goes
    GT, Pitt, Miami, GT goes
    GT, Pitt, Miami, UVA, GT goes
    GT, Pitt, UVA, VT, Pitt goes
     
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  16. ricejacket

    ricejacket Flats Noob

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    The calculus requirement needs to stay so that every November we can figure out how to win the Coastal.
     
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  17. Yukonwreck

    Yukonwreck Dodd-Like

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    Patiently observe and learn, Grasshopper. It's happening.
     
  18. ThisIsAtlanta

    ThisIsAtlanta Actually Nicolas Cage Staff Member

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    :bowrofl:
     
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  19. Yukonwreck

    Yukonwreck Dodd-Like

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    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Duke needs four losses. Pitt needs four losses. If we get to 5-3, by definition, we have the head-to-head tiebreaker on three loss VPI, a three loss Miami, and a three loss Virginia. UNC could help our cause, as can all Atlantic teams playing Coastal teams. Lie back and enjoy it.
     
  20. midatlantech

    midatlantech Dodd-Like

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    The odds are best for three way tie with uva and Pitt in which case we lose if Pitt beats uva. I am changing my opinion and rooting for uva.