Yay for 2008 (early w/l projection thread)

beej67

beej67

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I do this every year, so I can decide whether or not a season was disappointing based on my preseason expectations instead of however grumpy I am after the bowl. Feel free to play along. Unstead of calling wins and losses, I call what I think the percentage chance of a win is, and add them up.

Definitely a rebuilding year next year. I figure it goes like this:


ACC Home:
FSU 0.6
UVA 0.7
Miami 0.8
Duke 0.9

ACC Away:
Clemson 0.4
BC 0.4
UNC 0.7
VT 0.3

OOC:
Jacksonvile State 0.9
Miss State 0.8
Georgia (away) 0.1

Totals to 6.6, e.g. a 6 or 7 win season, not including the bowl, then a much better 2009 season as our offense develops.
 
VERY cool way to add up your predictions, i've never seen it done that way!
 
ACC Home:
FSU 0.6
UVA 0.7
Miami 0.7
Duke 1.0

ACC Away:
Clemson 0.5
BC 0.5
UNC 0.6
VT 0.4

OOC:
Jacksonvile State 1.0
Miss State 0.8
Georgia (away) 0.2

About the same... 7.0. BUT you are forgetting our 12th game, which should push this prediction to 7 OR 8 wins, depending on who we schedule.
 
refrigeratormover said:
9-3
Click to expand...
Wishful thinking ---can you name the 3 losses?

I'd say more like 4-8 with wins being Duke, Clempsen, Jacksonville State, and Boston College. Maybe add UVA to the wins---maybe.
Defense is in shambles, and has always been only an afterthought on Paul Johnson teams. I hope you are right and I am wrong, but Georgia Tech has a lot of work to do just to maintain a Gailey-like position in the conference--just to hold on to what we were this year. I am not confident that one spring and one fall camp is nearly enough to turn things completely around.
 
Yukonwreck said:
Wishful thinking ---can you name the 3 losses?

I'd say more like 4-8 with wins being Duke, Clempsen, Jacksonville State, and Boston College. Maybe add UVA to the wins---maybe.
Defense is in shambles, and has always been only an afterthought on Paul Johnson teams. I hope you are right and I am wrong, but Georgia Tech has a lot of work to do just to maintain a Gailey-like position in the conference--just to hold on to what we were this year. I am not confident that one spring and one fall camp is nearly enough to turn things completely around.
Click to expand...

I was asked to predict the record not name the loses.
 
Yellow Fever said:
VERY cool way to add up your predictions, i've never seen it done that way!
Click to expand...

It works better, because if you just predict wins and losses, and you figure you've got a 55% chance to win every game, that adds to 12-0, which doesn't make a lot of sense. And then you get into these arguments about who the losses will come from and whatnot. (*cough* :) )

Also, I don't think anyone who pays attention to Tech sports can give us a 1.0 in any game - we always seem to have a minimum 10% chance of screwing the pooch.
 
refrigeratormover said:
I was asked to predict the record not name the loses.
Click to expand...
I know---it's all a crapshoot in January. And apparently we are all about as good as the "professionals" at prognosticating--look where most had Tech for 2007. We might be ACC champs. Who knows? It's why we love the sport.
 
beej67 said:
Also, I don't think anyone who pays attention to Tech sports can give us a 1.0 in any game - we always seemed to have a minimum 10% chance of screwing the pooch.
Click to expand...

Fixed. :fingersx:

Sure, maybe the 1.0 is a bit over the top. But come on, we're talking about what WILL be a very disciplined football team next year under an excellent HC. Jax State and Duke, I put the win probability higher than 9.0.

Also, you are forgetting a 12th game. We'll probably schedule a cupcake, which would push your prediction to between 7 and 8 wins as well.
 
ACC Home:
FSU 0.65
UVA 0.60
Duke 0.80
Miami 0.70

ACC Away:
BC 0.50
VT 0.45
UNC 0.65
Clemson 0.40

OOC:
vs. Jacksonville State 1.0
vs. ???? (Probably a cupcake) 0.80
@ UGA 0.40
vs. Mississippi State 0.55

I see 7 wins, 3 toss-ups, and 2 losses.
 
Also, you are forgetting a 12th game. We'll probably schedule a cupcake, which would push your prediction to between 7 and 8 wins as well.
Click to expand...

Scheduling a cupcake would certainly be a good idea next year.

Add a cupcake at 0.9 and a low tier bowl at 0.50 takes me from 6.6 to 8.0 end-of-season - not too shabby for a first year coach.
 
beej67 said:
I do this every year, so I can decide whether or not a season was disappointing based on my preseason expectations instead of however grumpy I am after the bowl. Feel free to play along. Unstead of calling wins and losses, I call what I think the percentage chance of a win is, and add them up.

Definitely a rebuilding year next year. I figure it goes like this:


ACC Home:
FSU 0.6
UVA 0.7
Miami 0.8
Duke 0.9

ACC Away:
Clemson 0.4
BC 0.4
UNC 0.7
VT 0.3

OOC:
Jacksonvile State 0.9
Miss State 0.8
Georgia (away) 0.1

Totals to 6.6, e.g. a 6 or 7 win season, not including the bowl, then a much better 2009 season as our offense develops.
Click to expand...

interesting,I would change Ms st to .5,UNC to ,5, Clem to .2,Uva to .5,Miami to .5, the ONLY team that loses much from this yr is BC
 
Dook, Jax State, and the creampuff to be named later are givens. So all we have to do is win three of the remaining nine and we'll be 6-6.

Miami really sucks, MSU has no offense, and BC loses a lot. So I'll pick those as our wins.

6-6 is my conservative estimate.
 
5 & 7 is probable, with a little luck, and depending on the 12th game 7 & 5, but if the team rebells like when Ross took over 3 & 9 or 4 & 8...Its just to hard to predict how they will react after being babied for 6yrs....... 7 & 5 with all the unknowns would bee just fine with me
 
From what I am reading, looks like, if we are lucky, we win 7 and get the blue turf again.
 
ACC Home:
FSU 0.5
UVA 0.75
Duke 0.9
Miami 0.75

ACC Away:
BC 0.6 (sans Matt Ryan)
VT 0.3
UNC 0.6
Clemson 0.8

OOC:
vs. Jacksonville State 1.0
vs. ???? 0.95
@ UGA 0.30
vs. Mississippi State 0.55

A nice even 8.0 ... Playing as poorly as we did on offense this year especially outside of T.C. I think we should definately improve in that respect. Honestly I think our bball team would be put to better use on the football field knocking down deep passes, sure not getting it done on the hardwood. Anything in the world would be better than watching Word-Daniels trip over himself then trash talk when the opposing receiver drops a sure TD.
 
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