2017 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit

coit

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Here's the result of the 2017 Probability Polls. A lot of excitement out of the gate, with more than 160 folks voting in the first poll. Later polls set in at about 90 voters, and then apathy set in after the news about Mills hit.

UT : 0.615 L
JSU : 0.846 W
UCF : n/a
Pitt : 0.642 W
UNC : 0.624 W
Mia : 0.438 L
WF : 0.776 W
Clem : 0.332 L
UVA : 0.742 L
VT : 0.596 W
Duke : 0.720 L
UGA : 0.616 L

Total: 6.95 wins (2016 prediction: 7.3 wins)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 6.33 wins (-0.615)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 6.49 wins (+0.154)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 6.85 wins (+0.358)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 7.22 wins (+0.376)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 6.78 wins (-0.438)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 7.01 wins (+0.776)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 6.67 wins (-0.332)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 5.93 wins (-0.742)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 6.34 wins (+0.404)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 5.62 wins (-0.720)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 5.00 wins (-0.616)

Changes in probability from 2016 / 2015 repeat opponents:

Pitt : +0.062 / -0.097
UNC : +0.085 / -0.126
Mia : -0.020 / -0.197
Clem : -0.054 / -0.210
UVA : +0.060 / -0.056
VT : +0.054 / -0.062
Duke : +0.052 / -0.103
UGA : +0.144 / -0.010

Average : +0.048 / -0.108
Cumulative: +0.384 / -0.861

So, we are roughly 4.8% more optimistic this year over last year, but notably less optimistic than this time in 2015.

Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1. Clem 0.332 L
2. Mia 0.438 L
3. VT 0.596 W
4. UT 0.615 L
5. UGA 0.616 L
6. UNC 0.624 W
7. Pitt 0.642 W
8. Duke 0.720 L
9. UVA 0.742 L
10. WF 0.776 W
11. JSU 0.846 W

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season if you voted for all 12 games.

 
Last edited:
And thanks to everyone who took the time to vote!
 
coit said:
Here's the result of the 2017 Probability Polls. A lot of excitement out of the gate, with more than 160 folks voting in the first poll. Later polls set in at about 90 voters, and then apathy set in after the news about Mills hit.

UT : 0.616
JSU : 0.845
UCF : 0.763
Pitt : 0.647
UNC : 0.622
Mia : 0.422
WF : 0.780
Clem : 0.337
UVA : 0.749
VT : 0.597
Duke : 0.718
UGA : 0.616

Total: 7.7 wins (2016 prediction: 7.3 wins)

Adjusted total thru Game 1:
Adjusted total thru Game 2:
Adjusted total thru Game 3:
Adjusted total thru Game 4:
Adjusted total thru Game 5:
Adjusted total thru Game 6:
Adjusted total thru Game 7:
Adjusted total thru Game 8:
Adjusted total thru Game 9:
Adjusted total thru Game 10:
Adjusted total thru Game 11:
Adjusted total thru Game 12:

Changes in probability from 2016 / 2015 repeat opponents:

Pitt : +0.062 / -0.097
UNC : +0.085 / -0.126
Mia : -0.041 / -0.217
Clem : -0.054 / -0.210
UVA : +0.060 / -0.056
VT : +0.054 / -0.062
Duke : +0.052 / -0.103
UGA : +0.144 / -0.010

Average : +0.045 / -0.110
Cumulative: +0.363 / -0.881

So, we are roughly 4.5% more optimistic this year over last year, but notably less optimistic than this time in 2015.

Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1. Clem 0.337
2. Mia 0.422
3. VT 0.597
4. UT 0.616
5. UGA 0.616
6. UNC 0.622
7. Pitt 0.647
8. Duke 0.718
9. UVA 0.749
10. UCF 0.763
11. WF 0.780
12. JSU 0.845

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season if you voted for all 12 games.

Click to expand...

Dang it. Knew I had forgotten to vote in at least one of these. Can I still vote for the Duke game?
 
Can you double check mine? I'm a blank on the spreadsheet for da u but I'm pretty sure I voted in that poll.
 
@coit can you plug me in please:

UT : 0.6
JSU : 0.8
UCF : 1.0
Pitt : 0.6
UNC : 0.6
Mia : 0.3
WF : 0.9
Clem : 0.2
UVA : 0.8
VT : 0.6
Duke : 0.7
UGA : 0.7
 
Me too please:


JSU : 0.9
UCF : .9

UNC : 0.8
Mia : 0.4
WF : 0.9


VT : 0.7
Duke : 0.9
UGA : 0.6
 
Same, I missed the first ten games.

UT : 0.5
JSU : 0.9
UCF : 0.9
Pitt : 0.7
UNC : 0.8
Mia : 0.4
WF : 0.8
Clem : 0.2
UVA : 0.7
VT : 0.5
 
Me four:

UT : 0.6
JSU : 0.9
UCF : 0.9
Pitt : 0.6
UNC : 0.5
Mia : 0.3
WF : 0.8
Clem : 0.2
UVA : 0.8
VT : 0.5
Duke : 0.7
UGA : 0.5
 
OK, all results are in and updated.

@whenyousaybud I'm not sure your additional picks are going to help you. I'm gonna punch you when I see you today.
 
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