POLL: What is the probability we beat Alcorn State in 2018

What is the probability we beat Alcorn State in 2018

  • Total voters
    130
  • Poll closed .
Just thought I'd revisit this thread on the issue of the probability that we beat Alcorn St.

ESPN's GameTracker said at the beginning of the game that the odds were 99.3% that we would win. That had reached 99.9% two minutes into the second half.

It appears that ESPN uses different techniques to estimate probability than this board does...
 
18in32 said:
Just thought I'd revisit this thread on the issue of the probability that we beat Alcorn St.

ESPN's GameTracker said at the beginning of the game that the odds were 99.3% that we would win. That had reached 99.9% two minutes into the second half.

It appears that ESPN uses different techniques to estimate probability than this board does...
Click to expand...

I think I responded to you in the summary thread but I’ll do it again here as well.

Surely you see that the maximum value you can vote for is 0.9, not 1.0, right?

If the top value for this game were 1.0 instead of 0.9, the probability would be 96%. And that includes the trolls that voted below 80%.
 
coit said:
I think I responded to you in the summary thread but I’ll do it again here as well.

Surely you see that the maximum value you can vote for is 0.9, not 1.0, right?

If the top value for this game were 1.0 instead of 0.9, the probability would be 96%. And that includes the trolls that voted below 80%.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I did see that. Just continuing my public service campaign to demonstrate that all these probability assessments – yours, ours, ESPN's, etc. – are highly improbable.
 
18in32 said:
Yeah, I did see that. Just continuing my public service campaign to demonstrate that all these probability assessments – yours, ours, ESPN's, etc. – are highly improbable.
Click to expand...

And I'll respond by saying they are most useful as a way of gauging changes in the level of optimism from year to year and for different opponents.
 
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