POLL: What is the probability we beat UCF in 2022?

[coit]

Sat, Sept 24 @ UCF - TBD ET
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Last game: Ole Miss
Next game: Pittsburgh
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 34
FPI Differential: -8.5
Win Probability: 20.0%


Can Malzahn continue to work his magic in Orlando? I smell an upset here.

 

[Jmonty71]

I am giving us a 30% chance of winning. I think we play them close. But, I think we make too many errors. UCF 24 GT 21. I think we lose by a FG.

 

[BuzzinWreck78]

Sat, Sept 24 @ UCF - TBD ET
---------------------------------
Last game: Ole Miss
Next game: Pittsburgh
---------------------------------

ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 34
FPI Differential: -8.5
Win Probability: 20.0%


Can Malzahn continue to work his magic in Orlando? I smell an upset here.

what is FPI? is this differential intended to represent a point spread?

 

[coit]

what is FPI? is this differential intended to represent a point spread?

That is my understanding. It is an ESPN thing.

 

[GoGATech]

what is FPI? is this differential intended to represent a point spread?

That is my understanding. It is an ESPN thing.

Sort of. Your actual FPI value is the expected points margin vs. an average opponent on neutral field. I don't know what they use to calculate average opponent, but for instance our FPI is -0.4 and UCF's is 8.1. That means according to their calculations and computer simulations (20,000), we would lose to an "average" opponent on a neutral field by 0.4 points on average and UCF would win against an "average" opponent on a neutral field by 8.1 points on average. So basically if you are a 0 you are average. Positive numbers are above average, negative are below. The difference just means that is what the spread difference would be between GT playing an average opponent and UCF playing an average opponent on a neutral field, not necessarily meaning the spread when they play each other. Data is updated every week with real results and the remaining games are simulated again to keep the FPI current. Preseason FPI numbers don't really hold a lot of water. You really need to be 1/2 to 3/4 through the season before they really show anything.