CPJ should go for it on 4th down

BuzzMD

BuzzMD

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Saw this article link from smartfootball blog, and it appears that CPJ, as usual, is right in going for it so often on 4th down. Also, it appears the video game strategy of never punting is also valid.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/

Here’s a thought exercise for you. Imagine that for decades no one ever thought of the punt. Teams knew nothing else than to run or pass on 4th down. And then one day it’s invented. Some guy comes up to a coach and says, “Kick the ball on every 4th down and the other team gets possession 37 yards further down the field.” The coach would think he was crazy: “Wait, you want me to give up one quarter of my opportunities for a first down on every series…just for 35 yards of field position? Do you realize how much that’s going to kill our chances of scoring?”
And that coach would be absolutely right. It’s funny how boxed in our thinking can be. Except for the most desperate of circumstances or with inches to go just outside of field-goal range, today’s N.F.L. coaches will choose to punt.
Every single serious study of 4th-down decisions has found that, in most situations, teams would be better off by going for the conversion attempt rather than kicking. I’ve recently completed a study of 4th-down decisions that confirms what some fans already know, that it pays to be more aggressive. Those short on time might want to skip ahead to the bottom line.
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I am sick of not using that "get the team to jump off-sides" play we always run and never use it. Where each of the A-Backs motions up next to the B-Back and we have a "hard snap count". I don't see why we don't run that play after the motions when the play clock strikes 1 or 2 and actually go for it rather than call a timeout or take the penalty.
 
Yellow Fever said:
I am sick of not using that "get the team to jump off-sides" play we always run and never use it. Where each of the A-Backs motions up next to the B-Back and we have a "hard snap count". I don't see why we don't run that play after the motions when the play clock strikes 1 or 2 and actually go for it rather than call a timeout or take the penalty.
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Something tells me we will see that this year.
 
Yellow Fever said:
I am sick of not using that "get the team to jump off-sides" play we always run and never use it. Where each of the A-Backs motions up next to the B-Back and we have a "hard snap count". I don't see why we don't run that play after the motions when the play clock strikes 1 or 2 and actually go for it rather than call a timeout or take the penalty.
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You know it's coming at some point.
 
Pretty much every statistical analysis ever shows that teams should ALWAYS go for it on fourth down and less than 5, except in extreme situations such as backed up in your own 10 or if a FG wins the game. However, most coaches don't have the job security to do that. TMQ rants on this all the time.

Belichick subscribes to this theory and has plenty of job security, and the Patriots have done okay for themselves under his regime.
 
And that idiot Dodd thought that field position was important! He even punted on third down occasionally! No wonder that guy never won the Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year Award!
 
Easterbrook of ESPN's Tuesday Morning QB harps on this all of the time. There is a study that tells you the point value of going for it vs punting from different positions on the field and different distances (couldn't find it). If you are across your own 30 or 40 it says to pretty much always go for anything under 10 yards iirc.

His columns are a good read.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/060926

Edit: The study is linked in the column.
 
This advanced NFL stats quotes the same Romer paper as well as other papers. He has 4 blog entries on why they should go for it on 4th. Interesting read, if you have the time. I just might add Easterbrook and Advanced NFL stats to my reading list, in addition to smartfootball. All 3 appear to be pretty analytical--which I love.
 
GiveEmHellJackets said:
And that idiot Dodd thought that field position was important! He even punted on third down occasionally! No wonder that guy never won the Bobby Dodd Coach of the Year Award!
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On a strategic and athletic level, the game in Dodd's day was probably about the same as a 3A or 4A high school game now (or even worse at schools that didn't admit blacks). Back then the value of a punt was much higher because it was much more difficult for the offense to score points.
 
a5ehren said:
On a strategic and athletic level, the game in Dodd's day was probably about the same as a 3A or 4A high school game now (or even worse at schools that didn't admit blacks). Back then the value of a punt was much higher because it was much more difficult for the offense to score points.
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Georgia Tech 222 Cumberland 0
 
BuzzMD said:
This advanced NFL stats quotes the same Romer paper as well as other papers. He has 4 blog entries on why they should go for it on 4th. Interesting read, if you have the time. I just might add Easterbrook and Advanced NFL stats to my reading list, in addition to smartfootball. All 3 appear to be pretty analytical--which I love.
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Highly recommend Easterbrook, although I'd say his posts are about half NFL and half his own musings about random stuff. Always fun to read though.
 
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