2023 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

Vespinae said:
More competitive than TCU. We were the first (maybe only?) team to score on its opening drive against u[sic]ga all year.
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We were they only team to score a td on the opening drive against them since the last time we scored a td on the opening drive against them (I think). And that was 2016.
 
Vespinae said:
More competitive than TCU. We were the first (maybe only?) team to score on its opening drive against u[sic]ga all year.
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There are but a handful of plays in my nearly half-century of watching GT that haunt my nightmares to the point that I would welcome Freddy Kruger with open arms given the choice.

We can start with an TD pass from John Dewberry on our last possession against the dwags in '83 that would have won the game had it not been overthrown and intercepted. The pass interference call in 1995 that cost us another W over the dwags. Joe Burns running OOB against MD. Calvin bobbling a TD against NCSU. DT RiP dropping a 4th dn pass in 2009 v the dwags. Darren Waller breaking the wrong way on a dime throw from Justin Thomas on our final drive v F$U in the ACCCG.

But the last one - on our 2nd possession in Athens last year - a crisp, on-the-money, right into his hands pass to the TE with 21 guys behind him and nothing in front of him but a sea of green grass and an ocean of stunned dwag fans just bounces off of unfocused fingers and falls to the turf taking any chance of an upset right along with it.

If we can just not have any such plays this year, who knows what might happen.
 
Wake Forest voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.613
ESPN Probability: 0.245
Diff: +0.368

And previous years:

2022 Probability: n/a
2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a
 
Bowing Green voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.854
ESPN Probability: 0.869
Diff: -0.015

And previous years:

2022 Probability: n/a
2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a
 
coit said:
Shhh, don’t tell anyone but I have special edit powers for the Football threads since I update the poll threads through the season.

The polls close in 5 days so that I can crunch the numbers as we go along and I don’t have to process everything all at once in the week before the first game.

I bump the voting threads at least once or twice before they close, and each voting thread has a link to the previous and next polls in them.

Lastly, I allow people who may have missed a vote or two to put their picks in at the end.
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I only missed the first 5 votes. Will I get a chance to make those up?
 
I voted 0.9 against Bowling Green but it did not get recorded. Please enter my selection. Thanks.
 
Miami voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.472
ESPN Probability: 0.149
Diff: +0.323

And previous years:

2022 Probability: 0.363
2021 Probability: 0.440
2019 Probability: 0.470

First opponent that we have seen over the past 3 years (excluding 2020). The trend above shows the general souring of our relationship with the Clown over that time. Otherwise, this year's probability is almost exactly that of 2019, so some confidence has been restored it appears.
 
Boston College voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.716
ESPN Probability: 0.650
Diff: +0.066

And previous years:

2022 Probability: n/a
2021 Probability: 0.604
2019 Probability: n/a
 
UNC voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.583
ESPN Probability: 0.256
Diff: +0.327

And previous years:

2022 Probability: 0.438
2021 Probability: 0.415
2019 Probability: 0.642

Similar trends to the Miami game. Jump in confidence over past few years and about the same as 2019.
 
UVA voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.706
ESPN Probability: 0.474
Diff: +0.232

And previous years:

2022 Probability: 0.501
2021 Probability: 0.581
2019 Probability: 0.528

Interesting here that the previous UVA results do not show the same trend that the Miami and UNC games showed. I assume the clear increase in confidence this year is due to the decline in UVA's program.
 
Clemson voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.332
ESPN Probability: 0.055
Diff: +0.277

And previous years:

2022 Probability: 0.278
2021 Probability: 0.234
2019 Probability: 0.230

This year's confidence is about +0.1 higher than in the past several years. As with UVA, I suspect that this has more to do with the relative decline in the Clemson program. Turns out that losing your OC and DC means something in this case.
 
Syracuse voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.694
ESPN Probability: 0.333
Diff: +0.361

And previous years:

2022 Probability: n/a
2021 Probability: n/a
2019 Probability: n/a


Our differential with the ESPN probability is higher than all other games except WF. Not sure how to read that but we clearly don't respect the product Dino is putting on the field.
 
Georgie voting results:

2023 Probability: 0.337
ESPN Probability: 0.039
Diff: +0.298

And previous years:

2022 Probability: 0.187
2021 Probability: 0.385
2019 Probability: 0.371


After a record-low confidence level in 2022 it looks like we are back on par with previous year predictions.

THWG!
 
I will be posting the results shortly and those of you that want to add missing picks can do so in that results thread.
 
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