2024 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
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Here's the result of the 2024 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2023, 2022, and 2021 polls for common opponents, with red meaning our predictions this year were loser than the other data points.

As shown in the table below, we typically trended at about 0.4 above the ESPN results.

1724507919239.png


Total: 7.84 wins (+0.68 wins from 2023 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 8.326 wins (+0.490)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 8.475 wins (+0.149)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 7.730 wins (-0.745)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 7.862 wins (+0.132)


Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 UGA : 0.448
2 ND : 0.465
3 FSU : 0.510 W
4 Lou : 0.581
5 Mia : 0.597
6 NCSt : 0.626
7 VT : 0.679
8 UNC : 0.710
9 Syr : 0.745 L
10 Duke : 0.756
11 GSU : 0.851 W
12 VMI : 0.868 W

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET

 
Last edited:
Picks through the NCSU game are shown in the Missing Picks tab in the post above. Please provide picks for other games if you want them included in the contest.
 
coit said:
Picks through the NCSU game are shown in the Missing Picks tab in the post above. Please provide picks for other games if you want them included in the contest.
Click to expand...
If a user name doesn't appear in the above list,,are we to assume that all 12 have been recorded?
 
Deadline is noon Saturday for getting missing picks in.
 
@coit , please put me in for a 0.9 for all games I am missing. And please correct my error for FSU. I am a 1.0 for FSU. We’re playing in the ACCCG and will be a top 12 team after championship weekend. We’ll be 3-0 against schools from the state of Georgia by year end.
 
OP updated for final results. Trends definitely up in confidence this year.

Go Jackets!
 
Just saw this thread...could have swore I chose UNC selection. I know it may be late but I would have put 0.8.
 
OP updated for Game 1 results.

Our Game 1 win has increased the expected win total by 0.490. The total expected win value is now 8.326 wins.

We have 56 participants in the contest this year, a big drop from last year's 80.
 
coit said:
Here's the result of the 2024 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2023, 2022, and 2021 polls for common opponents, with red meaning our predictions this year were loser than the other data points.

As shown in the table below, we typically trended at about 0.4 above the ESPN results.

1724507919239.png


Total: 7.84 wins (+0.68 wins from 2023 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 8.326 wins (+0490)


Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 UGA : 0.448
2 ND : 0.465
3 FSU : 0.510 W
4 Lou : 0.581
5 Mia : 0.597
6 NCSt : 0.626
7 VT : 0.679
8 UNC : 0.710
9 Syr : 0.745
10 Duke : 0.756
11 GSU : 0.851
12 VMI : 0.868

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET

Click to expand...

Damn. I missed three pics.
 
Could you please check to make sure I made all the picks. I’m pretty sure I did but I can’t find where to check. Thank you for your kindness
 
Please put me down for .9 for Gsu, Vmi, Nc St and VT. .7 for the rest that are blank.
 
OP updated for Game 2 results.

Our Game 2 win has increased the expected win total by 0.149. The total expected win value is now 8.475 wins.
 
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