#### coit

##### Bullseye

- Joined
- Nov 29, 2007

- Messages
- 89,759

It is that time of year, sports fans. Time for the 2024 PPP!

The season is just about 8 weeks away, and a very tough schedule awaits. As in past years, I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that. Each poll will be open for at least 7 days.

Publishing schedule is below and links to each week's poll will be added here as the poll is released:

Game 01 - Florida State - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-florida-state-in-2024.116871/

Game 02 - Georgia State - Closes July 18 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-georgia-state-in-2024.116882/

Game 03 - Syracuse - Closes July 22 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-syracuse-in-2024.116901/

Game 04 - VMI - Closes July 26 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-vmi-in-2024.116921/

Game 05 - Louisville - Closes July 29 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-louisville-in-2024.116942/

Game 06 - Duke - July 23 -

Game 07 - North Carolina - July 26 -

Game 08 - Notre Dame - July 30 -

Game 09 - Virginia Tech - Aug 02 -

Game 10 - Miami - Aug 06

Game 11 - NC State - Aug 09 -

Game 12 - UGA - Aug 13 -

---------------

In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

This simply calculates the ratio of the GoGaTech score to the TIA scores as calculated above, which essentially removes the TIAScore from factoring in.

GGTRaw = GGTScore / TIAScore = (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This serves to reflect how accurate your prediction is relative to the final result. As noted in Section 2 above.

The final result of these three weighting systems produces scores that reasonably reflect how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2023 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2023-preseason-probability-poll-results.115046/

2022 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2022-preseason-probability-poll-results.112086/

2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/

2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/

2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/

The season is just about 8 weeks away, and a very tough schedule awaits. As in past years, I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure to vote in every poll if you want to participate in that. Each poll will be open for at least 7 days.

Publishing schedule is below and links to each week's poll will be added here as the poll is released:

Game 01 - Florida State - Closed - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-florida-state-in-2024.116871/

Game 02 - Georgia State - Closes July 18 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads...ability-we-beat-georgia-state-in-2024.116882/

Game 03 - Syracuse - Closes July 22 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-syracuse-in-2024.116901/

Game 04 - VMI - Closes July 26 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-vmi-in-2024.116921/

Game 05 - Louisville - Closes July 29 - https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/poll-what-is-the-probability-we-beat-louisville-in-2024.116942/

Game 06 - Duke - July 23 -

Game 07 - North Carolina - July 26 -

Game 08 - Notre Dame - July 30 -

Game 09 - Virginia Tech - Aug 02 -

Game 10 - Miami - Aug 06

Game 11 - NC State - Aug 09 -

Game 12 - UGA - Aug 13 -

---------------

In previous seasons we've developed some scoring systems that attempt to incentivize picks that are close to the actual result. We have taken to calling these the TIAScore and the GGTScore weighting factors. These systems are described below.

**The @ThisIsAtlanta / @GoGATech Scoring Systems**

1. TIA Score Weighting:1. TIA Score Weighting:

For a Win, your score equals your win probability.

For a Loss, your score equals 1 minus your win probability.

- If we win a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.9
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.9 you get 0.1
- If we lose a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.9
- If we win a game you predicted as 0.1 you get 0.1

**2. GoGATech / 18in32 Scoring Modification:**Score starts with the TIA scoring described above. Each game is given a result value according to the following index, which is based on the point spread of the final score:

- 0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) win
- 0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) win
- 0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) win
- 0.1 = TD (>3 pt) win
- 0.0 = win or loss by < 3 pts
- -0.1 = TD (>3 pt) loss
- -0.2 = two possession (>8 pt) loss
- -0.3 = two TD (>11 pt) loss
- -0.4 = three possession (>16 pt) loss

GGTScore = TIAScore * (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This rewards vote probabilities that are closer to final outcome by giving them a higher weight than results that are further from the actual final outcome.

**3. GoGATech Raw Score**:This simply calculates the ratio of the GoGaTech score to the TIA scores as calculated above, which essentially removes the TIAScore from factoring in.

GGTRaw = GGTScore / TIAScore = (1 - abs(VoteProb - 0.5 - GameResultValue)

This serves to reflect how accurate your prediction is relative to the final result. As noted in Section 2 above.

The final result of these three weighting systems produces scores that reasonably reflect how close to the actual result a voter's predictions are on a game by game and seasonal basis.

If you'd like to reminisce about past polls, links are below.

2023 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2023-preseason-probability-poll-results.115046/

2022 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2022-preseason-probability-poll-results.112086/

2021 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2021-preseason-probability-poll-results.108425/

2019 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2019-preseason-probability-poll-results.101870/

2018 Results Thread: https://stingtalk.com/board/threads/2018-preseason-probability-poll-results.97791/

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