2023 Preseason Probability Poll Results

[coit]

Here's the result of the 2023 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2022, 2021, and 2019 polls for common opponents, with red meaning our predictions this year were loser than the other data points.

As shown in the table below, we trended at about +0.3 above the EPSN results for 8 of the games. Lower for SC St and BG, but that is due mostly to not being able to vote for a 1.0. Trended equal to ESPN for BC. As some would expect, our 2023 predictions trended generally higher than 2022.

Total: 7.161 wins (+1.940 wins from 2022 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 6.550 wins (-0.611)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 6.674 wins (+0.124)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 6.307 wins (-0.367)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 6.694 wins (+0.387)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 5.840 wins (-0.854)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 6.368 wins (+0.528)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 5.652 wins (-0.716)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 6.069 wins (+0.417)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 6.363 wins (+0.294)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 6.031 wins (-0.332)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 6.337 wins (+0.306)
Adjusted total thru Game 12: 6.000 wins (-0.337)

Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 Clem : 0.332 L
2 UGA : 0.337 L
3 Ole Miss : 0.367 L
4 Mia : 0.472 W
5 UNC : 0.583 W
6 Lou : 0.611 L
7 WF : 0.613 W
8 Syr : 0.694 W
9 UVA : 0.706 W
10 BC : 0.716 L
11 BG : 0.854 L
12 SC St : 0.876 W

Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET

 

[coit]

Ok, if you are showing less than 12 votes in the last above, feel free to put your additional votes here and I'll add them.

Deadline for requests is noon on Friday Sept 1st.

 

[Akinji07]

Ok, if you are showing less than 12 votes in the last above, feel free to put your additional votes here and I'll add them.

Deadline for requests is noon on Friday Sept 1st.

We just sacrificed 12 tributes. Put me in for 12-0.

 

[ramblin_wreck08]

Thanks for coordinating this! Put me down as a .9 for BC.

 

[clapper]

I need a 0.9 for SC State, please.

 

[gtg970g]

Need a 0.9 for BG

 

[coit]

Thanks for coordinating this! Put me down as a .9 for BC.

Done

 

[coit]

Need a 0.9 for BG

Done

 

[coit]

Need a 0.9 for BG

Done

 

[coit]

We just sacrificed 12 tributes. Put me in for 12-0.

List games and probabilities please and thank you.

 

[GoGATech]

Missed UGAg game... put me down as 0.3

 

[coit]

Missed UGAg game... put me down as 0.3

Done.

 

[Akinji07]

List games and probabilities please and thank you.

.9 across the board for the remaining except Wake. Make that .5

 

[wgardiner3]

0.6 for Miami

 

[coit]

.9 across the board for the remaining except Wake. Make that .5

Done

 

[coit]

0.6 for Miami

Done

 

[gt9589]

Here's my missing games:

BG = 0.90
MIA = 0.60
BC = 0.70
UNC = 0.50

Thx!

 

[coit]

Here's my missing games:

BG = 0.90
MIA = 0.60
BC = 0.70
UNC = 0.50

Thx!

Done

 

[coit]

People missing one pick:

@agt45
@BrentwoodJacket
@BuzzyWuzzy
@crazyjacket
@getyourbuzzon
@Gman1411
@GT98
@IslandJacket
@JelloJacket
@MeatWrench
@sowegajacket

 

[agt45]

Give me a 0.70 on ‘Cuse.