2022 Preseason Probability Poll Results

coit

coit

Persecuted for his beliefs
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
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Here's the result of the 2022 Probability Polls. I am comparing our voting results to the ESPN preseason probabilities and to our 2021 and 2019 polls for common opponents, with red meaning our predictions this year were loser than the other data points.

As shown in the table below, it is interesting that we trended at about +0.2 above the EPSN results for 7 of the games. Lower for Western Carolina, but that is due mostly to not being able to vote for a 1.0. Trended equal to ESPN for UVA and VT, and below ESPN for Duke. And as expected, our 2022 predictions trended lower than 2021 and 2019, reflecting the general pessimism in the fanbase.


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Total: 5.221 wins (-1.356 wins from 2021 predictions)

Adjusted total thru Game 1: 4.943 wins (-0.278)
Adjusted total thru Game 2: 5.179 wins (+0.236)
Adjusted total thru Game 3: 4.878 wins (-0.301)
Adjusted total thru Game 4: 4.467 wins (-0.411)
Adjusted total thru Game 5: 5.052 wins (+0.585)
Adjusted total thru Game 6: 5.385 wins (+0.333)
Adjusted total thru Game 7: 4.884 wins (-0.499)
Adjusted total thru Game 8: 4.479 wins (-0.405)
Adjusted total thru Game 9: 4.988 wins (+0.509)
Adjusted total thru Game 10: 4.625 wins (-0.363)
Adjusted total thru Game 11: 5.187 wins (+0.662)
Adjusted total thru Game 12: 5.000 wins (-0.187)

Ranking of toughest opponents by probability:

1 UGA : 0.187 L
2 Clem : 0.278 L
3 Ole Miss : 0.301 L
4 Mia : 0.363 L
5 FSU : 0.405 L
6 UCF : 0.411 L
7 Pitt : 0.415 W
8 UNC : 0.438 W
9 VT : 0.491 W
10 UVA : 0.501 L
11 Duke : 0.667 W
12 W Car : 0.764 W


Here's the complete voting spreadsheet. I'll be tracking each voters record through the season as described in THIS thread if you voted for all 12 games.

LINK TO SPREADSHEET


 
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As a former champion, I'm not sure how I missed a few games. Is it OK to put me down as 0.4 for all missed games except the mutts, which I'll put 0.2?
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
As a former champion, I'm not sure how I missed a few games. Is it OK to put me down as 0.4 for all missed games except the mutts, which I'll put 0.2?
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Not to mention the posts over the past several day asking people to review their picks.

Done.
 
Coit, I missed the WCU pick, can you put me down for a 0.7 on that one?
 
coit said:
Not to mention the posts over the past several day asking people to review their picks.

Done.
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Missed those too. Sorry, the constant anti-CGC stuff really made this forum a cesspool over the summer. thanks for helping a brother out though!
 
OP updated for Game 1 results.

Our Game 1 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.278. The total expected win value is now 4.943 wins.
 
Coit, not sure how I missed Ole Miss. would you please put me down for a .3 please sir. Thank you
 
OP updated for Game 2 results.

Our Game 2 win has increased the expected win total by 0.236. The total expected win value is now 5.179 wins.
 
OP updated for Game 3 results.

Our Game 3 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.301. The total expected win value is now 4.878 wins.


We are 25% of the way through the season, and some leaders in the prediction contest have emerged...

@BuzzinWreck78
@ElCidBUZZingFAN
@Jmonty71

Are tied for the #1 spot in all three categories so far, each with a perfect score.
 
@coit So will we put an asterisk by the winners name this year? We all made these predictions based on the head coach being in place for another year. Many of us predicted only a couple of wins based on that. We might actually have a shot at a few more now hopefully.
 
mookie43 said:
@coit So will we put an asterisk by the winners name this year? We all made these predictions based on the head coach being in place for another year. Many of us predicted only a couple of wins based on that. We might actually have a shot at a few more now hopefully.
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LOL, you should’ve factored all external influences into your predictions!
 
OP updated for Game 4 results.

Our Game 4 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.411. The total expected win value is now 4.467 wins.

We are 1/3rd of the way through the season, and @Jmonty71 is alone in first place.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 4 results.

Our Game 4 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.411. The total expected win value is now 4.467 wins.

We are 1/3rd of the way through the season, and @Jmonty71 is alone in first place.
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I believe the award came with a check????........ Pulling my inner Grinch. LOL
 
OP updated for Game 5 results.

Our Game 5 win has increased the expected win total by 0.585. The total expected win value is now 5.052 wins.

@Jmonty71 still leads the contest in all metrics but @jacket67 is the only prognosticator with a perfect 5-0 record in picking wins and losses straight up.
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 5 results.

Our Game 5 win has increased the expected win total by 0.585. The total expected win value is now 5.052 wins.

@Jmonty71 still leads the contest in all metrics but @jacket67 is the only prognosticator with a perfect 5-0 record in picking wins and losses straight up.
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What kind of wierd ass voodoo did he use to come to this version of 2-3?
 
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