2022 Preseason Probability Poll Results

OP updated for Game 6 results.

Our Game 6 win has increased the expected win total by 0.333. The total expected win value is now 5.385 wins.

@Jmonty71 continues to leads the contest and @jacket67 is the only prognosticator with a perfect 6-0 record in picking wins and losses straight up.
 
OP updated for Game 7 results.

Our Game 7 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.499. The total expected win value is now 4.884 wins.

The last undefeated picker went down in the UVA upset, leaving a large group with a 6-1 record. We have different leaders in each of the scoring systems at this point:

TIA Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78
GoGATech Mod: @JoeCakeEater
GoGATech Raw: @agt45 / @Jmonty71
 
OP updated for Game 8 results.

Our Game 8 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.405. The total expected win value is now 4.479 wins.
 
OP updated for Game 9 results.

Our Game 9 win has increased the expected win total by 0.509. The total expected win value is now 4.988 wins.


We are 3/4 of the way through the season, so here's how things are shaping up in the contest.

For overall record, there's a 3-way tie for first at 8-1: @jacket67, @KrazieJacket, and @wgardiner3

TIA Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78 leads @05GTCorndog, @Jmonty71, and @Techfan02

GoGATech Mod Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78 leads @05GTCorndog

GoGATech Raw Scoring: @agt45 leads @05GTCorndog
 
OP updated for Game 10 results.

Our Game 10 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.363. The total expected win value is now 4.625 wins.
 
OP updated for Game 11 results.

Our Game 11 win has increased the expected win total by 0.662. The total expected win value is now 5.187 wins.

One game to go, here's how things are looking in the contest.

For overall record, @jacket67 is all alone in 1st place with a 10-1 record.​
​
TIA Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78 leads @Jmonty71 with @05GTCorndog in 3rd​
​
GoGATech Mod Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78 leads @Jmonty71 with @05GTCorndog in 3rd​
​
GoGATech Raw Scoring: @Jmonty71 leads @05GTCorndog and @agt45. Strangely, @BuzzinWreck78 lags well behind in this metric, more on that below.​

All of these fine fellers have a 0.1 prediction for the final game, therefore it would expect this to be the way that the contest will end.

As we did last year, for the overall championship, points are assigned to each of the three categories, 3 for 1st, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. With that scoring, the final standings are:

1st place: @Jmonty71 - 7 points
2nd place: @BuzzinWreck78 - 6 points
3rd place: @05GTCorndog - 4 points

So, a bit more about the @GoGATech Raw Score. The intent of this metric in part was to reflect accuracy in the predictions. As you may recall, the scoring was developed to reflect not just that you think we would win or lose, but also the margin. Predictions of 0.9 or 0.1 would not only reflect the confidence of a W or L but also the margin of victory. In looking at @BuzzinWreck78 and @Jmonty71 picks, BW had 8 picks of 0.1 while JM only had 3. They both predicted the same Ws and Ls through the season, so the Raw Score reflects that JM more accurately predicted the actual outcome of each game. BW had the higher @ThisIsAtlanta score because he picked more of the losses with the 0.1. The deciding factor more than any appears to be their picks for the Pitt game, where BW picked 0.1 and PM picked 0.4. While both were wrong, BW was as far from right as he could've been while JW was much closer.

With that being said, congratulations to the 2022 Stingtalk PPP Champion: @Jmonty71
 
coit said:
OP updated for Game 11 results.

Our Game 11 win has increased the expected win total by 0.662. The total expected win value is now 5.187 wins.

One game to go, here's how things are looking in the contest.

For overall record, @jacket67 is all alone in 1st place with a 10-1 record.​
​
TIA Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78 leads @Jmonty71 with @05GTCorndog in 3rd​
​
GoGATech Mod Scoring: @BuzzinWreck78 leads @Jmonty71 with @05GTCorndog in 3rd​
​
GoGATech Raw Scoring: @Jmonty71 leads @05GTCorndog and @agt45. Strangely, @BuzzinWreck78 lags well behind in this metric, more on that below.​

All of these fine fellers have a 0.1 prediction for the final game, therefore it would expect this to be the way that the contest will end.

As we did last year, for the overall championship, points are assigned to each of the three categories, 3 for 1st, 2 for 2nd and 1 for 3rd. With that scoring, the final standings are:

1st place: @Jmonty71 - 7 points
2nd place: @BuzzinWreck78 - 6 points
3rd place: @05GTCorndog - 4 points

So, a bit more about the @GoGATech Raw Score. The intent of this metric in part was to reflect accuracy in the predictions. As you may recall, the scoring was developed to reflect not just that you think we would win or lose, but also the margin. Predictions of 0.9 or 0.1 would not only reflect the confidence of a W or L but also the margin of victory. In looking at @BuzzinWreck78 and @Jmonty71 picks, BW had 8 picks of 0.1 while JM only had 3. They both predicted the same Ws and Ls through the season, so the Raw Score reflects that JM more accurately predicted the actual outcome of each game. BW had the higher @ThisIsAtlanta score because he picked more of the losses with the 0.1. The deciding factor more than any appears to be their picks for the Pitt game, where BW picked 0.1 and PM picked 0.4. While both were wrong, BW was as far from right as he could've been while JW was much closer.

With that being said, congratulations to the 2022 Stingtalk PPP Champion: @Jmonty71
Click to expand...
which thread has the scoring rules?
thanks for doing this
 
BuzzinWreck78 said:
which thread has the scoring rules?
thanks for doing this
Click to expand...

2022 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

It is that time of year, sports fans. Time for the 2022 PPP! The season is just about 6 weeks away, and apathy couldn't be higher. As in past years (other than 2020), I will be tracking everyone's performance through the season and handing out kudos at the end for top performers, so be sure...
stingtalk.com stingtalk.com
 
OP updated for Game 12 results.

Our Game 12 loss has decreased the expected win total by 0.187. The final win value is 5.000 wins.

No changes in the results of the contest as discussed in my last post.

We turned out to be pretty good predictors of the schedule strength this year, as we lost the Top 5 games and won 5 of the Bottom 6 games.

1 UGA : 0.187 L
2 Clem : 0.278 L
3 Ole Miss : 0.301 L
4 Mia : 0.363 L
5 FSU : 0.405 L
6 UCF : 0.411 L
7 Pitt : 0.415 W
8 UNC : 0.438 W
9 VT : 0.491 W
10 UVA : 0.501 L
11 Duke : 0.667 W
12 W Car : 0.764 W

Thanks to everyone who participated in this year's contest. See you in 2023!
 
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