POLL: What is the probability we beat Florida State in 2024

What is the probability we beat Florida State in 2024?


  • Total voters
    162
  • Poll closed .

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
89,759
Sat, August 24 vs Florida State - 12:00 PM ET

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Next game: Georgia State
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ESPN Pre-Season FPI Rank: 11
FPI Differential: -13.0
Win Probability: 6.9%

Back to Ireland for another season opener! At least this one won't start at 7 AM EDT. I posted a bit about the publishing schedule for this season in the 2024 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion thread.

In the Portal era, will any of these pre-season projections really be all that accurate. I like our chances.
 
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I already spent this year's prize money. Might as well cancel the pole.
 
I think we have a decent chance in week 0, with FSU over-confident and starting out the season with a lot of new players, but it's still more likely to be a competitive loss.
 
Can I get a refresher on why probabilities can't round to 1.0 or 0.0? Why would 0.99 round down to 0.9 but 0.09 round up to 0.1?
 
Can I get a refresher on why probabilities can't round to 1.0 or 0.0? Why would 0.99 round down to 0.9 but 0.09 round up to 0.1?

The old software would only allow 10 options maximum. So you couldn’t do 1.0 through 0.0, as that was 11 options. So this is the way it’s been done.

Can I get a refresher on why people care so much? Every damn year, the same question.
 
Can I change my vote? I fat fingered 0.7 but this is a 0.9 for me.

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I think as the game approaches and focus shifts from brand / 2023 records to actual game analysis we’re gonna start getting some love in this matchup. They have a talent advantage. But…

- Their roster has turned over a ton and we have a lot of returning production. Highlighted most with the matchup of our OL vs their DL. If we can come out and establish a run game then they’re in trouble.

- DJU has been good at times and bad at times. Not sure he will dominate even if he has picked up the offense / meshed with receivers already (which is no guarantee).

- Weather was an issue last time in Dublin. That’s an equalizer and our special teams are solid if the game devolves to that.

- Week 0 overseas, who knows how teenagers will react. I like that we have people in the AA who have been through it already.
 
I think as the game approaches and focus shifts from brand / 2023 records to actual game analysis we’re gonna start getting some love in this matchup. They have a talent advantage. But…

- Their roster has turned over a ton and we have a lot of returning production. Highlighted most with the matchup of our OL vs their DL. If we can come out and establish a run game then they’re in trouble.

- DJU has been good at times and bad at times. Not sure he will dominate even if he has picked up the offense / meshed with receivers already (which is no guarantee).

- Weather was an issue last time in Dublin. That’s an equalizer and our special teams are solid if the game devolves to that.

- Week 0 overseas, who knows how teenagers will react. I like that we have people in the AA who have been through it already.
If I’m FSU, with a new QB, I line up and try to pound the Jackets. I think of the UGA game when we closed to within a TD with a few minutes left in the game, we knew what UGA was going to do but could not stop them.
 
The old software would only allow 10 options maximum. So you couldn’t do 1.0 through 0.0, as that was 11 options. So this is the way it’s been done.

Can I get a refresher on why people care so much? Every damn year, the same question.
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FSU also had more talent when a clown led team, led by a QB bust managed to beat FSU in the first game of the year. GT is more talented and much better coached this time.
 
I think we can beat them. Their QB will be new. We’ll see if there are any lingering side effects of the bowl beat down.

In their favor, we will have a new defensive scheme and I expect there to be some broken coverages on our side.
 
If our D-Line shows up, we can take 'em.

I expect the first half of the L'ville game and the 2nd half of the UCF game.
 
I see a few people harping on FSU run game. I wanna dig into that a little more and say I'm more concerned with them running it with DJU. Big tall QBs have given our run defense fits. I think back to Logan Thomas at VT.

If they can run it on us with him it will be a long day.
 
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