2024 Pre-Season Probability Poll Discussion Thread

BuzzCzar said:
I found a copy of coit's poll on my cloud drive from 2016...
Also a Butthurt Trading Market info sheet from the same year

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Look at me up there in 2nd place - get used to it, gents - only guy above me has two dollar signs in his name so probably one of those high-roller gambler types. There's plenty to go around so don't be too bummed.
 
coit said:
So I’ve been thinking about adjusting this scoring to account for all of the whining about 1.0 and 0.0. Here’s what I’m thinking:

If we win a game you predict as 0.9 you get 1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.1 you get 1.0
If we win a game you predict as 0.1 you get -1.0
If we lose a game you predict as 0.9 you get -1.0

The scores in between would be ratioed accordingly. Or, the -1.0 scores would be 0.0. Any thoughts on this?
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I think you should catch a ban for complaining about the scoring system.
 
FSU voting results in:

2024 Probability: 0.510
ESPN Probability: 0.069
Diff: +0.441

And previous years:

2023 Probability: n/a
2022 Probability: 0.405
2021 Probability: n/a

So, an increase in confidence over the 2022 results. That's to be expected.
 
coit said:
FSU voting results in:

2024 Probability: 0.510
ESPN Probability: 0.069
Diff: +0.441

And previous years:

2023 Probability: n/a
2022 Probability: 0.405
2021 Probability: n/a

So, an increase in confidence over the 2022 results. That's to be expected.
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G776T said:
7% is a ridiculous number, implied odds from Vegas right now are 20%, and id say that's still a little low, but we are still certainly optimistic at 51%
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I should say that I calculated the FPI probability from an equation I found online, as ESPN is no longer reporting them on the the team pages. I think it is accurate but who knows.
 
ramblinwise1 said:
We are an unrealistc bunch!
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This time of year most fanbases are optimistic so I guess it's reasonable for us to be too. Guessing at this poll is fun but I've always felt it better
to gamble on teams and games that you don't care about the outcome. Makes it easier to be objective.
 
For those of you that miss voting in a poll, I typically will allow folks that miss one or two votes to give me their picks at the end.
 
GSU voting results in:

2024 Probability: 0.851
ESPN Probability: 0.883
Diff: -0.032

And previous years:

2023 Probability: n/a
2022 Probability: n/a
2021 Probability: n/a

Obviously, no previous matchups to compare. And hey, we are less optimistic than the FPI, so there's that.
 
Syracuse voting results in:

2024 Probability: 0.745
ESPN Probability: 0.540
Diff: +0.205

And previous years:

2023 Probability: 0.694
2022 Probability: n/a
2021 Probability: n/a

Well above the ESPN probability, and slightly more confident than last year game, which we won.
 
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