2nd Chance POLL: What is the probability we beat UVA in 2023

2nd Chance: What is the probability we beat UVA in 2023

  • Total voters
    83
  • Poll closed .
coit

coit

Bullseye
Joined
Nov 29, 2007
Messages
93,641
Poll to gauge the change in confidence as the season goes along.

UVA 2-6 / ESPN FPI -3.2 (-0.4 YTD)
GT: 4-4 / ESPN FPI 0.6 (+1.2 YTD)

GT ESPN FPI Win Probability: 54.4% (+7.0%)
 
Last edited:
coit said:
Poll to gauge the change in confidence as the season goes along.

UVA 6-1 / ESPN FPI -3.2 (-0.4 YTD)
GT: 4-4 / ESPN FPI 0.6 (+1.2 YTD)

GT ESPN FPI Win Probability: 54.4% (+7.0%)
Click to expand...
wait what.. they are favored but we're supposed to win?
 
gt2690b said:
wait what.. they are favored but we're supposed to win?
Click to expand...

They are Vegas favored, but not ESPN FPI favored. They are a slight favorite per the Sagarin ratings after giving 2.2 points for home field.

Code: 
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT   
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.19]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.22]       [  2.19]
  82  Georgia Tech         A  =  67.62    4   4   71.01(  50)    0   0  |    1   2  |   68.33   75 |   67.20   84 |   66.88   84  ACC
  86  Virginia             A  =  66.76    2   6   74.29(  20)    0   0  |    1   1  |   65.90   89 |   65.06   93 |   67.52   78  ACC
 
coit said:
They are Vegas favored, but not ESPN FPI favored. They are a slight favorite per the Sagarin ratings after giving 2.2 points for home field.

Code: 
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT  
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.19]                                               [  2.18]       [  2.22]       [  2.19]
  82  Georgia Tech         A  =  67.62    4   4   71.01(  50)    0   0  |    1   2  |   68.33   75 |   67.20   84 |   66.88   84  ACC
  86  Virginia             A  =  66.76    2   6   74.29(  20)    0   0  |    1   1  |   65.90   89 |   65.06   93 |   67.52   78  ACC
Click to expand...
GT ESPN FPI Win Probability: 54.4% (+7.0%) ??
 
how’s the win probability doing against the results?
 
gt2690b said:
GT ESPN FPI Win Probability: 54.4% (+7.0%) ??
Click to expand...


www.espn.com

Georgia Tech 45-17 Virginia (Nov 4, 2023) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Virginia Cavaliers NCAAF game, final score 45-17, from November 4, 2023 on ESPN.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

1698689941259.png


The +7% is the year to date change.
 
Akinji07 said:
how’s the win probability doing against the results?
Click to expand...

ESPN probability or ST probability?

ESPN is 3-5, being correct on first 3 and wrong on the last 5.

ST probability is 4-4, including a win in predicting the UNC game.
 
UVA has an interesting history with Tech. We haven't beaten them since 2018. Last time we won in Charlottesville was 2013
Chan was 2-4.
CPJ was 7-4.
Clown was 0-2.
Key is 0-1.

Regardless, I see us winning this one. We will ride the momentum of the UNC win to even up the GT-UVA series at 22 wins a piece.

1698691688761.png
 
We've never had good results in France. Like Napoleon going to Russia. For that I'm predicting a 30% chance and hope I'm wrong again like last week :)
 
cajunjacket said:
UVA has an interesting history with Tech. We haven't beaten them since 2018. Last time we won in Charlottesville was 2013
Chan was 2-4.
CPJ was 7-4.
Clown was 0-2.
Key is 0-1.

Regardless, I see us winning this one. We will ride the momentum of the UNC win to even up the GT-UVA series at 22 wins a piece.

1698691688761.png
Click to expand...
and only 2 victories in c'ville in the last 30 years
 
UNC euphoria gonna continue in c'ville. UNC was an epiphany for the team!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top