I get the 3 & 5 win seasons being the reason for the total, but who is betting on the under, especially for the line to be moving in that direction? The amount of returning experience we have is rare for a college team. When you look at our success (especially offensively), that's quite a good predictor. Great examples are 2014 where we came from 7-6 after a string of losses and identity confusion with the Vad Lee experiment, a QB that no one was hyping (JT), yet returned a bunch of experience (especially offensively) and mauled people. Then 2015 where we had the momentum and another year under JT yet had to totally redefine our backs and receiver position (plus the injury bug) and replace Shaq Mason. Last year was bad, but we competed better than our win % would suggest. Now we're hopefully entering with a line that will have built some depth and has enough experience (Stick's loss hurts, but hopefully more than offset with DeFoor joining the fold, Marshall returning, and a bunch of other guys having more of a clue of what to do and better S&C). We have a QB that is being actively disparaged yet, despite the poor stats in certain areas, would only need to make small adjustments and better decisions to massively improve -- basically the kind of thing a year of experience often provides. ST is still a concern but can only improve. Defense, well, that's a matter of opinion, although I personally couldn't imagine Woody performing worse than Roof did. Although we did get poor fortune last year, especially with the weather, you also make your own luck. The best way to do that is through experience.