5 star recruits more likely to be arrested than drafted

[BuzzMD]

Saw this article and found it amusing.

http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/20...ruits-of-2005-more-likely-to-be-arrested-tha/

In the 2009 draft, seven of these 28 men were drafted. Four more left early and were drafted in the 2008 draft. That means there have been 11 draft picks from the 2005 five-stars. Amazingly, that's less than the number of men who have been arrested, 14. If you ever doubted whether being obsessed with college football recruiting was fool's gold, keep this stat in mind: In 2005, five-star recruits were more than twice as likely to be arrested (14) as drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft in 2008 or 2009 (six). There haven't been this many wasted hours on the Internet since first year lawyering.

But no one really ever asks a key question, how accurate is the Rivals star system when it comes to future NFL draft success? The answer? Not that accurate. Eight of the first round picks in 2009 were two-stars, guys who, if your team offered them scholarships, you'd kick the dirt and wonder whether your team would ever compete for championships. See for yourself. If the NFL draft is an inexact science then college football recruiting is akin to treating cancer with leaches.

In all, seven five-stars from the class of 2005 were drafted out of the 255 picks in 2009. Combining that with the four taken in 2008's first round, 11 five-star players from the 2005 class have gone on to be drafted. That pales in comparison to the 135 two-stars and 65 three stars. In fact, guys who would barely merit a mention when they sign with your team (nary a four-star or five-star among them) comprised a whopping 78 percent of the NFL draft picks.

 

[stinger78]

Saw this article and found it amusing.

http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/20...ruits-of-2005-more-likely-to-be-arrested-tha/

Interesting.

Consider that Scout lists its top 300 players as 4-5* players, that is in the neighborhood of 13% of the 2400 or so players signed by FBS (D1A) teams each year.

That they make up 22% of the players drafted tells you one thing. That they don't make up far more tells you another.

 

[gth816f]

In 2005, five-star recruits were more than twice as likely to be arrested (14) as drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft in 2008 or 2009 (six).

But aren't there three+ years' worth of five star recruits playing in college at any given time and only one class per year gets to go to the draft?

 

[Deleted Stingtalker 69]

seeing as there's a lot more two and three star players, it would be interesting to see the % of players in each star ranking category drafted. % of each star ranking making up the class and % making up the draft.

 

[Yellow Fever]

Wow! Thanks for the post! Very interesting!

 

[BuzzMD]

But aren't there three+ years' worth of five star recruits playing in college at any given time and only one class per year gets to go to the draft?

No, they looked at the 5star recruits of 2005 -- and of those, they were more likely to go to jail than be drafted. So the problem with this study is that it looked at 1 year of data, rather than a continuum of years -- but the analysis was interesting to say the least.

 

[lonestarjacket]

seeing as there's a lot more two and three star players, it would be interesting to see the % of players in each star ranking category drafted. % of each star ranking making up the class and % making up the draft.

Yeah, this is interesting, but just slightly better than anecdotal evidence.

Another factor that should be included in any analysis of correlation is where people were drafted. Give more points for first rounders than sixth rounders.

In isolation, it is a bit like claiming that basketball seeds don't matter because #1 seeds only win X% of the time. But #1 seeds win a lot more than #12 seeds, so seeding means something.

Anybody got the time and stats package to do a correlation between stars and draft points?

P.S.
The underlying message to me is that highly recruited players have invested too much in success or failure on the field. If they happen to fail in sports then things can go badly.

 

[Rodzilla]

The analysis is interesting, but flawed, as they don't factor the percent of players in each *-ranking, as previously mentioned in this thread.

 

[gthog61]

seeing as there's a lot more two and three star players, it would be interesting to see the % of players in each star ranking category drafted. % of each star ranking making up the class and % making up the draft.

It's the same thing as when people point out successful "C" students. There are a lot more of them.