Almost 40% of CPJ's P5 victories are blowouts

18in32

18in32

Petard Hoister
Joined
May 23, 2010
Messages
27,889
Per a request in the 'few blowout losses' thread, here's a breakdown of how we've done in all of CPJ's *POWER 5* Tech wins...

As of today, CPJ has a record of 76-52 at GT. Of the 76 wins, 12 are over FCS teams (Jax St x3, Gardner Webb, WCU, Wofford, Alcorn St, Presbyterian, SC State, Ala A&M, Elon & Mercer), and 6 are over G5 FBS teams (MTSU x2, Tulane x2, Ga So x2). None of those victories are included in these stats. (One of those 76 victories is the 2009 ACCCG, which I continue to treat as a normal win.)

So of the 58 victories over P5 teams here are our margins of victory —
1-8 pt wins: 22 (38%)
9-16 pt wins: 14 (24%)
17-21 pt wins: 7 (12%)
22+ pt wins: 15 (26%)

Pulling from the other thread, there are 52 losses by these margins....
1-8 pt losses: 28 (54%)
9-16 pt losses: 10 (19%)
17-21 pt losses: 8 (15%)
22+ pt losses: 6 (12%)

So if you treat a three-score victory as a blowout... almost 40% of CPJ's P5 victories are blowouts. In fact, we are more likely to beat a team by four scores than by two or by three.

We have 36 more-than-one-score victories, but only 24 more-than-one-score losses. On the flip side, we lose more one-score games than we win. (It sure feels that way, doesn't it? Nice when the stats back up your intuition.)

Given that a typical CPJ game has a reduced number of possessions, I'd say our margins of victory over P5 opponents are pretty impressive.

Here's the annual breakdown if any cares....

2008
1-8 pt wins: 4
9-16 pt wins: 0
17-21 pt wins: 1
22+ pt wins: 2

2009:
1-8 pt wins: 5
9-16 pt wins: 1
17-21 pt wins: 1
22+ pt wins: 3

2010:
1-8 pt wins: 2
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 0

2011:
1-8 pt wins: 3
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 1

2012:
1-8 pt wins: 0
9-16 pt wins: 1
17-21 pt wins: 4
22+ pt wins: 1

2013:
1-8 pt wins: 1
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 2

2014:
1-8 pt wins: 2
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 4

2015:
1-8 pt wins: 1
9-16 pt wins: 0
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 0

2016:
1-8 pt wins: 3
9-16 pt wins: 3
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 1

2017:
1-8 pt wins: 1
9-16 pt wins: 1
17-21 pt wins: 1
22+ pt wins: 1
 
looking back at the 2014 season, i remember how close we were to losing to georgia southern and vpi. but i forgot how close those games were against duke and unc. i wonder how things would have gone down if we had won those two.
 
Xihix said:
looking back at the 2014 season, i remember how close we were to losing to georgia southern and vpi. but i forgot how close those games were against duke and unc. i wonder how things would have gone down if we had won those two.
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We lost to FSU head to head in the ACC championship, so an Orange Bowl victory over a top ranked SEC team probably would’ve been the best we could have hoped for.

I don’t think we’d gotten into the playoffs losing to FSU.
 
samsgt02 said:
We lost to FSU head to head in the ACC championship, so an Orange Bowl victory over a top ranked SEC team probably would’ve been the best we could have hoped for.

I don’t think we’d gotten into the playoffs losing to FSU.
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Even with the two losses, if we’d beaten FSU and if Wisconsin had won, I think we woulda made it.
 
18in32 said:
Even with the two losses, if we’d beaten FSU and if Wisconsin had won, I think we woulda made it.
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Ol crab legs played the game of his life against us in the ACCCG. He had been good for ~2 turnovers a game every game that season and we got nada.

He used up all his capital against us and then completely self-destructed the next game vs Oregon.
 
18in32 said:
Per a request in the 'few blowout losses' thread, here's a breakdown of how we've done in all of CPJ's *POWER 5* Tech wins...

As of today, CPJ has a record of 76-52 at GT. Of the 76 wins, 12 are over FCS teams (Jax St x3, Gardner Webb, WCU, Wofford, Alcorn St, Presbyterian, SC State, Ala A&M, Elon & Mercer), and 6 are over G5 FBS teams (MTSU x2, Tulane x2, Ga So x2). None of those victories are included in these stats. (One of those 76 victories is the 2009 ACCCG, which I continue to treat as a normal win.)

So of the 58 victories over P5 teams here are our margins of victory —
1-8 pt wins: 22 (38%)
9-16 pt wins: 14 (24%)
17-21 pt wins: 7 (12%)
22+ pt wins: 15 (26%)

Pulling from the other thread, there are 52 losses by these margins....
1-8 pt losses: 28 (54%)
9-16 pt losses: 10 (19%)
17-21 pt losses: 8 (15%)
22+ pt losses: 6 (12%)

So if you treat a three-score victory as a blowout... almost 40% of CPJ's P5 victories are blowouts. In fact, we are more likely to beat a team by four scores than by two or by three.

We have 36 more-than-one-score victories, but only 24 more-than-one-score losses. On the flip side, we lose more one-score games than we win. (It sure feels that way, doesn't it? Nice when the stats back up your intuition.)

Given that a typical CPJ game has a reduced number of possessions, I'd say our margins of victory over P5 opponents are pretty impressive.

Here's the annual breakdown if any cares....

2008
1-8 pt wins: 4
9-16 pt wins: 0
17-21 pt wins: 1
22+ pt wins: 2

2009:
1-8 pt wins: 5
9-16 pt wins: 1
17-21 pt wins: 1
22+ pt wins: 3

2010:
1-8 pt wins: 2
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 0

2011:
1-8 pt wins: 3
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 1

2012:
1-8 pt wins: 0
9-16 pt wins: 1
17-21 pt wins: 4
22+ pt wins: 1

2013:
1-8 pt wins: 1
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 2

2014:
1-8 pt wins: 2
9-16 pt wins: 2
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 4

2015:
1-8 pt wins: 1
9-16 pt wins: 0
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 0

2016:
1-8 pt wins: 3
9-16 pt wins: 3
17-21 pt wins: 0
22+ pt wins: 1

2017:
1-8 pt wins: 1
9-16 pt wins: 1
17-21 pt wins: 1
22+ pt wins: 1
Click to expand...


Nice analysis. Only thing missing is a spreadsheet. :biggrin:
 
A data point no one is talking about... If you take out the cupcake wins, PJ is 58-52.

Before you get out your torches, I'm a CPJ fan. But if you take out the UGA wins and Orange Bowl victory, he would have been gone years ago. Perspective.
 
white&gold said:
A data point no one is talking about... If you take out the cupcake wins, PJ is 58-52.

Before you get out your torches, I'm a CPJ fan. But if you take out the UGA wins and Orange Bowl victory, he would have been gone years ago. Perspective.
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2008 & 2009 showed us what was possible. The fact that we had few blowout losses, and some comfortable wins, kept him alive for 2010-2013. But 2014 definitely reetablished some much needed credibility. If 3-9 had happened in 2014, not sure he’d still be our coach.

At the end of the day, we’re not gonna fire a coach who can beat UGA.
 
white&gold said:
A data point no one is talking about... If you take out the cupcake wins, PJ is 58-52.

Before you get out your torches, I'm a CPJ fan. But if you take out the UGA wins and Orange Bowl victory, he would have been gone years ago. Perspective.
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Is this post supposed to be made in jest?

In what universe does anyone’s “objective” job critique look like this:

You handle the easy stuff almost 100% of the time, have accomplished something few have before in your position, and have dealt with a historical problem with a higher success rate than nearly all your predecessors. BUT if I take that away, you’re still only 10% better than average. So gain some perspective.
 
white&gold said:
A data point no one is talking about... If you take out the cupcake wins, PJ is 58-52.

Before you get out your torches, I'm a CPJ fan. But if you take out the UGA wins and Orange Bowl victory, he would have been gone years ago. Perspective.
Click to expand...

If you take the most important accomplishments away from any coach he's not going to look very good unless he's Nick Saban.
 
GTCrew4b said:
Is this post supposed to be made in jest?

In what universe does anyone’s “objective” job critique look like this:

You handle the easy stuff almost 100% of the time, have accomplished something few have before in your position, and have dealt with a historical problem with a higher success rate than nearly all your predecessors. BUT if I take that away, you’re still only 10% better than average. So gain some perspective.
Click to expand...

I did say I'm a CPJ fan. So I'm not lightening his accomplishments. Fully agree that he has done what few have done before him.

Just pointing out that his success at tech really comes down to 5-6 games out of 100+
 
white&gold said:
A data point no one is talking about... If you take out the cupcake wins, PJ is 58-52.

Before you get out your torches, I'm a CPJ fan. But if you take out the UGA wins and Orange Bowl victory, he would have been gone years ago. Perspective.
Click to expand...

I’m confused as to why eliminating the uga and OB wins would be part of any argument for or against CPJ? By that token, remove all losses to uga, fsu, Miami, and vt. Dafuq
 
Dirty Jacket said:
I’m confused as to why eliminating the uga and OB wins would be part of any argument for or against CPJ? By that token, remove all losses to uga, fsu, Miami, and vt. Dafuq
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lol I think my post is misinterpreted. I was commenting on how his success over 10 years is defined by 4-5 (maybe 6-7 if you include other top 10 wins)out of 100+ games coached with a barely above .500 record.

I've just never thought of it that way.

Carry on
 
Take away the handful of times Saban won title games and he'd be just a good not great coach
 
white&gold said:
He'd still have the best record of any coach over the last ten years
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But in this instance he never won it all!

My point is it's retarded to say things like "well....take away this or that and Coach X really isn't that good or bad".

It's like saying "take away those 3 75 yard TD passes and Tech had zero yards passing!"
 
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