BCS Metrics

GTCrew4b said:
Basically GT’s performance out of conference and then in conference killed the ACC.

0-3 in FBS OOC, and 5-3 in conference. Pretty damning for the ACC when it comes to computer rankings.
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So a team that FSU did not play kept them out of the playoffs?

Well that is just a ööööing brilliant methodology.
 
RoanokeJacket said:
So a team that FSU did not play kept them out of the playoffs?

Well that is just a ööööing brilliant methodology.
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Well that’s how the computers work. It’s pretty much wins and losses of opponents and opponents opponents with different tweaks here and there. And many of them discount FCS games entirely. I’m a little surprised at FSU’s number from a BCS perspective.
 
GTCrew4b said:
Well that’s how the computers work. It’s pretty much wins and losses of opponents and opponents opponents with different tweaks here and there. And many of them discount FCS games entirely. I’m a little surprised at FSU’s number from a BCS perspective.
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Oh that’s how computers work? Then why was FSU in on the BCS one?
 
supersenior said:
Oh that’s how computers work? Then why was FSU in on the BCS one?
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As an undefeated team one would expect their number to be even higher in a BCS rating. The fact that they are 4 and ahead of only Texas but not Alabama is odd. And explained by ACC teams being bad out of conference but good in conference. I believe Virginia Tech is in the same boat.
 
Basically the algorithm showed even affinity for the SEC (and/or disdain for the ACC) than the committee did. It just didn't feel like it had to put Texas in over Bama due to their one h2h matchup, so FSU got in instead.
 
andrew said:
The BCS algorithm was public and a third party continues to produce simulated BCS rankings. It had Bama 3, FSU 4, texas 5.



Calculation detail: https://bcsknowhow.wordpress.com/bcs-formula/
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That's exactly my top 4. Head to head matters a lot less than human bias thinks. If you ignore it and look at records independently, Bama has better wins and a loss to the better team.
 
interchange said:
That's exactly my top 4. Head to head matters a lot less than human bias thinks. If you ignore it and look at records independently, Bama has better wins and a loss to the better team.
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I'm struggling a bit with this:

1) Head to head matters less than we think. I can kind of buy this, especially if it's early in the season.

2) Bama has better wins. This feels a little wrong given that Texas beat Bama, which seems llike a really important win in this context, but given 1 I can at least understand it. And Bama does have more wins agains ranked teams.

3) Bama has a loss to the better team. This is where I'm having trouble. Alabama's loss is to Texas. So Alabama should get in over Texas because their loss is to Texas, who is a really good team? It just feels like the results don't matter when Texas beating Alabama is used as an argument to put Alabama in over Texas.
 
interchange said:
That's exactly my top 4. Head to head matters a lot less than human bias thinks. If you ignore it and look at records independently, Bama has better wins and a loss to the better team.
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What are their better wins than Texas? And why is UGA a better win in 2023? Do you think Texas wouldn’t also beat UGA?
 
GTCrew4b said:
Well that’s how the computers work. It’s pretty much wins and losses of opponents and opponents opponents with different tweaks here and there. And many of them discount FCS games entirely. I’m a little surprised at FSU’s number from a BCS perspective.
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Yes but if UGA had gotten in, then Tech may have squeezed in too. It’s how you play at the end of the year and if your qb is healthy.
 
Any conference champion who plays and beats another conference champion should have significant weight added to their being invited to the playoff. Considering how few inter-conference games are played.
 
andrew said:
3) Bama has a loss to the better team. This is where I'm having trouble. Alabama's loss is to Texas. So Alabama should get in over Texas because their loss is to Texas, who is a really good team? It just feels like the results don't matter when Texas beating Alabama is used as an argument to put Alabama in over Texas.
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This is ultimately the problem overall. Was the problem back in the BCS rematch year too. It's not just that losses get marginalized because they are "good" or "better" than other losses, it's that the idea of them as an elimination criteria get thrown out completely. If the committee felt they couldn't take Bama and leave Texas out because of the head-to-head, then the logic is really weak for taking Texas and Bama together over some 3rd worthy team.

Just like in that other year (2012?), there's not much credibility in giving Bama a second crack at beating a team they lost to but now with a national championship on the line. Similarly it's stupid to force Texas/LSU to have to beat them twice to win the trophy. Basically, for how the system is set up otherwise, these losses should of resulted in telling Bama "sorry, next time try to lose less".
 
Thinking more about the logic behind my view. I now get why the committee would oppose it. Not because they think these losses are actually less bad, but they don't want to encourage teams to go the Georgia route of choose OOC opponents this year and result in a whole lot of games people don't want to pay money to see. So if a big name team loses to another big name team OOC, they look the other way kind of cause otherwise the big name team that lost may not play another big name team OOC again.
 
andrew said:
Bama has a loss to the better team. This is where I'm having trouble. Alabama's loss is to Texas. So Alabama should get in over Texas because their loss is to Texas, who is a really good team? It just feels like the results don't matter when Texas beating Alabama is used as an argument to put Alabama in over Texas.
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Oklahoma beat Texas so shouldn't they be in ahead of Texas? Better teams lose to worse teams, sometimes by double digits all the time.

An alternative scenario is:
Team A beats team B
Team B beats team C
team C beats team A

Which team is best?

You have to evaluate the entire resume.

GTCrew4b said:
What are their better wins than Texas? And why is UGA a better win in 2023? Do you think Texas wouldn’t also beat UGA?
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Alabama currently ranked wins:
6 Georgia
11 Ole Miss
13 LSU
21 Tennessee

Texas currently ranked wins:
4 Alabama
25 Kansas State

UGA isn't a better win than Alabama, but on the whole Alabama beat many more high quality teams than Texas. Do I think Texas would beat UGA? I don't know. I don't think they'd be favored, but they should be ranked higher given their conference championship.
 
interchange said:
Oklahoma beat Texas so shouldn't they be in ahead of Texas? Better teams lose to worse teams, sometimes by double digits all the time.
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I would say definitely yes if both of them had only one loss and both won their conference.

Head to head isn't the only thing that matters but when you're down to tiebreakers like "whose one loss is better" between two teams who played each other then I think it should matter.
 
interchange said:
Oklahoma beat Texas so shouldn't they be in ahead of Texas? Better teams lose to worse teams, sometimes by double digits all the time.

An alternative scenario is:
Team A beats team B
Team B beats team C
team C beats team A

Which team is best?

You have to evaluate the entire resume.



Alabama currently ranked wins:
6 Georgia
11 Ole Miss
13 LSU
21 Tennessee

Texas currently ranked wins:
4 Alabama
25 Kansas State

UGA isn't a better win than Alabama, but on the whole Alabama beat many more high quality teams than Texas. Do I think Texas would beat UGA? I don't know. I don't think they'd be favored, but they should be ranked higher given their conference championship.
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You forgot Oklahoma State. And I think when one team beats a team at home. And then the loser beats another team on a neutral site most bettors would favor the first superior team (Texas in this case).

I’m not sure why Tennessee is any better a win than Kansas this season. I understand they are ranked because the committee used 2020-2022 results to determine their rankings, but as far as actual performance, they’re not too different.
 
GTCrew4b said:
You forgot Oklahoma State. And I think when one team beats a team at home. And then the loser beats another team on a neutral site most bettors would favor the first superior team (Texas in this case).

I’m not sure why Tennessee is any better a win than Kansas this season. I understand they are ranked because the committee used 2020-2022 results to determine their rankings, but as far as actual performance, they’re not too different.
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Sorry about missing OK St. You can add #20 Ok St to Texas' resume. Regardless, the strength of wins are clearly in Bama's favor by committee rankings. I feel pretty confident that looks similar using almost every human poll and computer model you look at, but I'm not inclined to go digging.

If you don't agree with the ranking of other teams, that's fine. You are entitled to a different opinion.
 
interchange said:
Sorry about missing OK St. You can add #20 Ok St to Texas' resume. Regardless, the strength of wins are clearly in Bama's favor by committee rankings. I feel pretty confident that looks similar using almost every human poll and computer model you look at, but I'm not inclined to go digging.

If you don't agree with the ranking of other teams, that's fine. You are entitled to a different opinion.
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Every SEC West team has an OOC loss with the exception of the Mississippi teams. So I’m not sure why the SEC West is still treated as this great division. They didn’t prove it this season.

The one good win of the bunch: Miss St over AZ happened when AZ had their original starter who did not lead them to their current heights. So the entire SEC West is basically paper tigers in my mind. LSU got SHELLACKED by FSU. UGA and Ole Miss beating us is holding up the charade of SEC strength. Kentucky beating Louisville did the college football world no favors…Basically Bama got lucky in their rivalry game and Louisville didn’t, ergo we are in this position. But if Bama had lost to Auburn, UGA would be in the playoff over maybe Texas instead, but probably still FSU.

As far as the East is concerned, Mizzou did beat KState on a 61 yard FG so there is that good win out of the bunch. But that’s about it when comparing to the Big 12.
 
I can think of no better illustration of why committees, rankings and so forth have no business deciding sports outcomes than where this thread is at now. This isn't all that far off from a bunch of teenage girls deciding who can and cannot go to the upcoming party because of what they wore at the last one.

Type B, 100%. 90210 reunion airs when?
 
juraitwaluzka said:
I can think of no better illustration of why committees, rankings and so forth have no business deciding sports outcomes than where this thread is at now. This isn't all that far off from a bunch of teenage girls deciding who can and cannot go to the upcoming party because of what they wore at the last one.

Type B, 100%. 90210 reunion airs when?
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We get it. Anyone who discusses relative strengths of teams is gay in your mind. No one agrees with you. Go talk to yourself.
 
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