Compare expectations before season started and now

N

NATSman

Guest
Before the season, I thought we'd win 3-4 games and had a 5% chance to beat UGA and a .01% chance to win the conference.

Now, I think we'll win 7-8 games and have a 20% chance to beat UGA and a 10% chance to win the conference.

My expectations have already been well-exceeded in terms of where we are at this point in the season.

What do you think?
 
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I thought we'd win 6-7 games before the season, now I think we'll win 9-10. I still don't like our chances against UGA, but I think we've got a 40% chance of making the title game.
 
Before the season, this was basically my expectation:

Gailey's staff led us to at least 7 wins in all the years he was here. We are now upgrading to one of the premier coaches in the college game. Our team will be young (but when switching systems, it's not necessarily a bad thing as the old system is not as in-grained into their playing). I basically felt that 7 wins would be a solid total to shoot for, and that we could possibly win 8 if things really took off with the new system. I didn't buy into all the naysayers talking about our new system not working at this level.


At this point, I've upped my win total to 9. We have taken to the new system even faster than I thought we would, and PJ has been an even better playcaller than I'd hoped. Our defense has stepped up and the scheme we're playing with on that side of the ball is perfect for our personnel. Assuming we get everyone back healthy after the bye week, then I truly see no reason as to why we couldn't go 7-2 down the stretch. Our schedule sets up nicely with FSU and Miami both being home games, and with UNC losing their QB for a while, I think we'll be good to go.

I'm thinking 9-3 (with the potential to be 10-2) prior to the bowl game. I can't wait to see how we play in a bowl game under PJ, too!
 
I was expecting this and if someone can dig up season predictions thread, it will be interesting to look at that.

Only thing I wasn't expecting was this much offensive production.
 
i said 7 wins should be achievable with a +/- of one game potentially understandable

more than 8 wins would mean that Nesbitt really took off, and less than 6 would mean that we may have big problems for the long haul (IMO)

now i think that we can get 8 wins, and should get 7 wins for sure. we should be able to get 8, maybe more. again, Nesbitt and the Oline will have to really play well to get that many, but not impossible

therefore i conclude that my expectations are being met, and were in line with current outcomes


here were my original predictions

i think we will win 7

IMO, we should win 7

less than 7 would be a disappointment for me, more would be a bonus.

6 would be ok, and understandable, but still disappointing

JaxSt, Duke, GW are gimmies (3)
i think we should beat MsSt and BC (2)
we should be able to split MIA, FSU, UNC & UVA (2)
There is my seven wins
bonus wins potential: Clim, VT, & Ugay

in the last few years, we might have lost 3 of the 4 i say we split, but then get one back from the potential win list.. we will see about this year

http://www.stingtalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=236583#poststop
 
I say 9 wins, I believe in PJ and you should believe in PJ! PJ is not going out there to get a 5-7, he is going out there to kick some ass, EVERY SINGLE GAME!
Click to expand...
I think the same now.
 
I think we will win out. Seriously. I think we will win out and finish with a top 10 season. Maybe #8 or so.
 
Expectations before:

http://www.stingtalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=216488#post216488

beej67 said:
Okey dokey, time to revisit the old Beej WinOMeter.


Aug. 28 Jacksonville State 0.9
Sept. 6 at Boston College 0.6
Sept. 13 at Virginia Tech 0.4
Sept. 20 Mississippi State 0.7
Oct. 4 Duke 0.9
Oct. 11 Gardner-Webb 1.0
Oct. 18 at Clemson 0.4
Oct. 25 Virginia 0.8
Nov. 1 Florida State 0.5
Nov. 8 at North Carolina 0.6
Nov. 20 Miami (Thu.) 0.5
​
Nov. 29 at Georgia 0.2

Based on the above percentage chances of winning, I expect 7.5 wins, 4.5 losses.

But then again, why break with tradition? Hehe.
Click to expand...

Sticking to the same expectations, but applying known results, would yield this:

Aug. 28 Jacksonville State 1
Sept. 6 at Boston College 1
Sept. 13 at Virginia Tech 0
Sept. 20 Mississippi State 1
Oct. 4 Duke 0.9
Oct. 11 Gardner-Webb 1.0
Oct. 18 at Clemson 0.4
Oct. 25 Virginia 0.8
Nov. 1 Florida State 0.5
Nov. 8 at North Carolina 0.6
Nov. 20 Miami (Thu.) 0.5
​
Nov. 29 at Georgia 0.2

7.9 wins, and a 0.8% chance of going undefeated through the rest of the season.

I recently posted this revision:

http://www.stingtalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=250825#post250825

beej67 said:
Woot. I love these math threads.

Duke - .95
GW - .99
CU - .45
UVa - .95
FSU - .75
UNC - .7
Miami - .5
UGa - .3

I've got us winning 5.59 more games, for an expected value of 8.59, and a 3.2% chance of winning out.
Click to expand...

...where Clemson, UVA, UGA, and FSU were revised upwards.

Net: 8 or 9 wins. Not bad. More than Gailey.
 
beej67 said:
Expectations before:

http://www.stingtalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=216488#post216488



Sticking to the same expectations, but applying known results, would yield this:

Aug. 28 Jacksonville State 1
Sept. 6 at Boston College 1
Sept. 13 at Virginia Tech 0
Sept. 20 Mississippi State 1
Oct. 4 Duke 0.9
Oct. 11 Gardner-Webb 1.0
Oct. 18 at Clemson 0.4
Oct. 25 Virginia 0.8
Nov. 1 Florida State 0.5
Nov. 8 at North Carolina 0.6
Nov. 20 Miami (Thu.) 0.5
​
Nov. 29 at Georgia 0.2

7.9 wins, and a 0.8% chance of going undefeated through the rest of the season.

I recently posted this revision:

http://www.stingtalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=250825#post250825



...where Clemson, UVA, UGA, and FSU were revised upwards.
Click to expand...
Nevermind, read your thing wrong. (edited)
 
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