ATLANTA — If Geoff Collins has succeeded at anything in his three seasons as Georgia Tech’s football coach, it’s vagueness. He will tell you how great recruiting is going, how successful his strength and condition program is, how his players have bought in and that a foundation is being laid for success, adding, “I think we’re going to be really good.” And the sentence ends there, with no timeframe. Because if there’s one key element to a coach’s self-preservation, it’s not setting expectations that may come back to crush him.
The problem is that three years into Collins’ tenure, vagueness doesn’t work anymore. A coach needs to win, show tangible progress and avoid embarrassment. He can’t lose the season opener to Northern Illinois, or get steamrolled for 636 yards by Virginia, or need a last-minute touchdown to beat Duke, or get humiliated by Notre Dame on national television 55-0.
“It’s Year 3, and it’s still not working,” said Roddy Jones, the former Georgia Tech running back and now a college football analyst for ESPN and SiriusXM radio who maintains close ties to the program. “You’re still trying to lay a foundation, and it’s a lot of the same guys. Why are they still so bad on defense? They’re worse.”
Jones, who played on teams that went 34-19 with an ACC championship in his four seasons under Paul Johnson, said Georgia Tech’s 2-6 ACC record this season looks even worse given how weak the conference has proven to be. He believes scheme problems have led to standout running back
Jahmyr Gibbs being underutilized and defensive players being confused by assignments and blowing coverages. He also speculates, “I think there’s been some misses, honestly, in recruiting.”
“In order to gain the confidence of everybody, something has to change, whether it’s on the staff or whether it’s the way they operate,” he said. “Because what they’re doing now is not working. Ultimately, it’s a results-oriented business, and showing progress is important. This staff has had to overcome injuries and the pandemic, but so has every team. It’s the way guys are prepared to play, and the names that are making these mistakes.
“If the league had been what we thought it was going to be this year, I may think, three wins, OK. But it’s three wins with a loss to Northern Illinois and some really embarrassing performances. You saw what happened against Notre Dame. What’s going to happen against Georgia? These are really embarrassing losses, and they’ve happened since Coach Collins has arrived. People are looking at it like, ‘Are things really going the right way, even if players come in?'”
The Jackets are 35 1/2-point underdogs to Georgia on Saturday, the biggest spread in the rivalry since at least 1995. The question isn’t whether the Jackets will pull off a stunning upset — they won’t. It’s whether athletic director Todd Stansbury’s first major coaching hire in Collins was a monumental mistake — and with that giving a seven-year contract to somebody whose only head coaching experience was going 15-10 in two years at Temple.
The only thing likely preventing Collins from getting fired may be the
economic realities that accompany the buyout at a place like Georgia Tech, where the athletic department operates close to the margins. Collins’ buyout would be approximately $12 million (salary plus other guarantees) if he were to be fired after this season. The buyout drops to $7.2 million if the move is made after 2022, $4.8 million after 2023 and $2.4 million after 2024. It’s far more likely there are changes to the coaching staff, particularly at offensive and/or defensive coordinator.
Stansbury declined to comment through a spokesperson Monday on Collins’ status or his view on the state of the program.
If Tech loses to Georgia, it will be the team’s sixth straight defeat and complete a 3-9 season. Collins’ overall record is 9-24 (.273). It’s the second-worst winning percentage of any coach in the program’s history after three seasons. There is some concern among fans and donors because the program appeared to have some momentum three years ago when Collins stepped up recruiting, created a buzz with his marketing efforts and Stansbury spearheaded a major fundraising campaign for a facilities makeover, notably the Edge Athletics Center. But that momentum is gone.
Another potential ripple effect to the losing is players leaving. Gibbs, one of the ACC’s top players and a touted recruit who had offers from multiple Power 5 programs, has basically seen his first two seasons wasted. The Jackets have no clear offensive identity, and it’s worth wondering whether Gibbs and others will enter the transfer portal after this season.
“You talk to opposing coaches, and the first name that comes out of their mouth is Jahmyr Gibbs,” Jones said. “The portal is a real thing, and how many of these guys elect to stay and how many go is going to be telling. If you see guys jumping off the ship, it’ll be clear there’s a lack of belief in the building.”
Collins has leaned on what he considers a “monumental transition” from the triple-option offense when explaining the losing. His tone changed slightly after the Notre Dame game, when he said, “That’s a really good football team, but I thought we got out-coached, we got out-executed and we got out-physicaled throughout the game. Response to adversity was not like we’ve shown in previous games, and we’ve got to find a way.”
Maybe even he realized excuses were wearing thin.
Only two of the Jackets’ eight losses have come to teams currently in the CFP rankings (Notre Dame and Pittsburgh). Four have come to teams that are either 6-5 or 5-6 (Virginia, Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech) and one came to Northern Illinois of the MAC. Collins points to close losses as clear signs of progress, but that argument carries more weight when opponents aren’t pedestrian.
The Jackets rank 10th in the ACC and 80th nationally in scoring and 13th and 106th in defensive scoring. They rank ninth and 79th in total offense, 12th and 114th in total defense. Tech’s defense has allowed 505 or more yards in five of 11 games, including 636 against Virginia and 580 to Pittsburgh. Opponents have scored 33-plus points in five games, including 55 to Notre Dame, 52 to Pitt and 48 to Virginia.
Tech has had successful coaches start poorly, but they rebounded in their third season. Bill Curry started 2-19-1, then had only one losing season in the next five, went 9-2-1 one season and was hired by Alabama. Bobby Ross started 5-17 (0-13 in the ACC), then went 26-9-1 during the next three, including 11-0-1 and a share of the national championship in 1990, before jumping to the
NFL. George O’Leary failed to go to a bowl in his first two years, then went to five straight.
NBC showed a pair of crushing graphics during the broadcast of the Notre Dame game. One pictured Johnson, O’Leary and Chan Gailey with the program’s cumulative record from 1997-2018: 169-112 (.601) and 20 bowl appearances. The other pictured Collins and his record and bowl appearances (zero) since 2019.
Not the branding Stansbury was seeking when he made this hire.
If the stands at Bobby Dodd Stadium are filled for the Georgia game, it will be only because the stadium off North Avenue had again morphed into Athens West, with a significant number of fans wearing red and black.
Collins shouldn’t be faulted for the Jackets being significant underdogs in a rivalry game when the rival also happens to be the nation’s No. 1 ranked team. But there have been regrettable performances each of his seasons — a loss to The Citadel and an offensive shutout at Temple in 2019; a 73-7 loss to Clemson and accounting for Syracuse’s only win in 2020; NIU, Notre Dame among others this year.
Collins has lost the benefit of the doubt, he has lost support, and only because of economics is he likely to avoid losing his job.
