For Everyone Who Thinks the Defense is Better This Year

Status
Not open for further replies.
johncu said:
I really don't want to get into this argument again. Clemson whipped our asses - no bones about it. Lots of people were talking about how they always lose in BDS, and they were ready for us. That was embarrassing.

But no, both sides do not take care of business against teams of similar or lesser talent, and that is not my opinion. It is a fact that is supported by stats, which is the whole point of this thread. Factoring in strength of opponent, style and pace of play, and anything else you could bring up, our offense is again outperforming our talent level, while our defense is performing a below average. It has been consistently that way since 2008, and if you really wanted people to take you seriously with your incessant ranting to fire CPJ, that is what you should be focusing on.
Click to expand...

I've not call for CPJ to be fired and it's not fiscally viable to do so anyway. Since I think he'll be here as long as he wants, I'd like him to stop making excuses, recruit better, and be more creative in his play-calling.

That said, our defense kept us in the game vs BC (a team that has proven to be much worse than Johnson fans like you claimed it to be) and we won that game because we threw the damn ball at the end (the way Syracuse did today for 435 yards against their vaunted defense). Our offense repeatedly doesn't perform well against the good teams we face, which IMO shows it's not the magical cure-all...field-leveler...that some fans still claim it to be.

Our D played well against Clemson and had nothing to be embarrassed about. They played well enough to win against Miami but the offense crapped the bed there too. Neither team played great against PITT. Southern, Mercer, and Vandy are shitty cupcakes - who gives a crap about beating them. Had the offense moved the ball as well as mighty NC State did last week, we beat Clemson. Had the offense not handed 14 pts to the U, we beat those cocksuckers too.

You can post all sorts of numerical wizardry but here are the only numbers that really matter: 2 wins vs ACC opponents since the end of 2014.

And if you didn't want to get into this argument again, why'd you make this Tech-Defensive-Student-Athlete-bashing post in the first place?
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
Had the offense moved the ball as well as mighty NC State did last week, we beat Clemson.
Click to expand...

Clemson had four turnovers against NC State. Of the 17 points NC State scored, 7 was on a pick six. So the offense scored 10 points with three turnovers to work with.
 
AE 87 said:
A lot of posts in this thread. Many defend our D/DC, but none actually respond to this data.

The issue raised by this data is not simply O>D, but D is really bad for a pwr5 team. The challenge for those of us.who like Roof is defending bottom 30 when O is top 30.
Click to expand...

The only "top 30" the O is ranked is 15th in Team Rushing
and
Team Rushing Yds/Game (We're 21st).

We're 65th in Points Scored.
We're 79th in Points/Game.
We're 85th in Total Yards
We're 106th in YDS/Game
We're 124th in Pass Yds/Game

I don't defend Roof but our D certainly can't shoulder all the blame for our record, as so many people here want to do. Our offense is plodding along by all measurements. Given how many Rushing attempts we have, those Rushing stats aren't terribly impressive.


http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
And they would've won had they had a Butker on their team.
Click to expand...

And we very well would have won if Clemson turned it over four times and we had a pick six on an interception rather than a safety. To laud NC State's offense when they scored 10 points all game with three turnovers to work with is silly.

It's not really that difficult: per game and total stats will always look better for the defense and look worse for the offense when the offense is more run-based, especially with drives of several runs. The per possession or per play stats have consistently shown the offense much higher ranked than the defense.
 
floridajacket said:
And we very well would have won if Clemson turned it over four times and we had a pick six on an interception rather than a safety. To laud NC State's offense when they scored 10 points all game with three turnovers to work with is silly.

It's not really that difficult: per game and total stats will always look better for the defense and look worse for the offense when the offense is more run-based, especially with drives of several runs. The per possession or per play stats have consistently shown the offense much higher ranked than the defense.
Click to expand...

We're scoring 26.7 PPG. That's 79th in the country. As 78 other teams are outscoring us, perhaps we need to increase our Points Per Possession? I mean, this offensive scheme is supposed to be the Great Equalizer. The Field Leveler. It's clearly not that now and hasn't been for almost 2 years. Perhaps CPJ could add a few wrinkles rather than repeating the same plays and expecting different results? If the offense continues its numerous missed assignments, etc...then perhaps it's time for ol CPJ to coach to the talent we have...rather than the talent we wished we had?
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
We're scoring 26.7 PPG. That's 79th in the country. As 78 other teams are outscoring us, perhaps we need to increase our Points Per Possession? I mean, this offensive scheme is supposed to be the Great Equalizer. The Field Leveler. It's clearly not that now and hasn't been for almost 2 years. Perhaps CPJ could add a few wrinkles rather than repeating the same plays and expecting different results? If the offense continues its numerous missed assignments, etc...then perhaps it's time for ol CPJ to coach to the talent we have...rather than the talent we wished we had?
Click to expand...

The point of per game versus per possession really went over your head. The goal of a team is not to score the most points possible, but to score more than the other team. When your team has 7 drives rather than 15 drives, then you will score less but the other team also scores less.

You're really fixated on points per game being the end goal of an offense. I understand how that makes sense, but it's just not correct. If an offense scores TD's on 5 out of 7 drives, that's MUCH better than 6 out of 15 drives. But focusing solely on points per game makes the 6/15 team better than the 5/7 team. That's completely wrong.
 
floridajacket said:
The point of per game versus per possession really went over your head. The goal of a team is not to score the most points possible, but to score more than the other team. When your team has 7 drives rather than 15 drives, then you will score less but the other team also scores less.

You're really fixated on points per game being the end goal of an offense. I understand how that makes sense, but it's just not correct. If an offense scores TD's on 5 out of 7 drives, that's MUCH better than 6 out of 15 drives. But focusing solely on points per game makes the 6/15 team better than the 5/7 team. That's completely wrong.
Click to expand...

Right - so maybe we need to score more PPG.

The fact that 26.7 PPG is 79th shows that we're not scoring enough pts.

We aren't scoring TDs on 5 of 7 drives. We only scored 3 against PITT - the Special Teams ran one back. Not sure what is what for Clemson? 1 of X game drives? We only scored 3 of X game drives against Miami too.

And if the opposition scores 35 pts, it's much much better to score 6 of 15 game drives than 5 of 7 game drives, since that would result in a 42-35 victory.

A few years ago, proponents of this offense would laud our Team Rushing stats as proof of how great the scheme is, while making excuses for the poor passing #s. I guess the new tactic is to use PPP rather than the other stats, since those are all down now.
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
I've not call for CPJ to be fired and it's not fiscally viable to do so anyway. Since I think he'll be here as long as he wants, I'd like him to stop making excuses, recruit better, and be more creative in his play-calling.

That said, our defense kept us in the game vs BC (a team that has proven to be much worse than Johnson fans like you claimed it to be) and we won that game because we threw the damn ball at the end (the way Syracuse did today for 435 yards against their vaunted defense). Our offense repeatedly doesn't perform well against the good teams we face, which IMO shows it's not the magical cure-all...field-leveler...that some fans still claim it to be.

Our D played well against Clemson and had nothing to be embarrassed about. They played well enough to win against Miami but the offense crapped the bed there too. Neither team played great against PITT. Southern, Mercer, and Vandy are ööööty cupcakes - who gives a crap about beating them. Had the offense moved the ball as well as mighty NC State did last week, we beat Clemson. Had the offense not handed 14 pts to the U, we beat those cocksuckers too.

You can post all sorts of numerical wizardry but here are the only numbers that really matter: 2 wins vs ACC opponents since the end of 2014.

And if you didn't want to get into this argument again, why'd you make this Tech-Defensive-Student-Athlete-bashing post in the first place?
Click to expand...

I find it humorous that you consider Vandy a bad team and not giving us credit for crushing a team that beat UGA.
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
Right - so maybe we need to score more PPG.

The fact that 26.7 PPG is 79th shows that we're not scoring enough pts.

We aren't scoring TDs on 5 of 7 drives. We only scored 3 against PITT - the Special Teams ran one back. Not sure what is what for Clemson? 1 of X game drives? We only scored 3 of X game drives against Miami too.

And if the opposition scores 35 pts, it's much much better to score 6 of 15 game drives than 5 of 7 game drives, since that would result in a 42-35 victory.

A few years ago, proponents of this offense would laud our Team Rushing stats as proof of how great the scheme is, while making excuses for the poor passing #s. I guess the new tactic is to use PPP rather than the other stats, since those are all down now.
Click to expand...
I kinda hear what you're saying but...
Brian-Fantana-Easy-Champ-Anchorman.gif
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
Right - so maybe we need to score more PPG.

The fact that 26.7 PPG is 79th shows that we're not scoring enough pts.

We aren't scoring TDs on 5 of 7 drives. We only scored 3 against PITT - the Special Teams ran one back. Not sure what is what for Clemson? 1 of X game drives? We only scored 3 of X game drives against Miami too.

And if the opposition scores 35 pts, it's much much better to score 6 of 15 game drives than 5 of 7 game drives, since that would result in a 42-35 victory.

A few years ago, proponents of this offense would laud our Team Rushing stats as proof of how great the scheme is, while making excuses for the poor passing #s. I guess the new tactic is to use PPP rather than the other stats, since those are all down now.
Click to expand...

The offense can do better, but it's not as bad as the PPG stat shows. It's #36 in points per drive, versus #78 in points per game. That's a big difference and there's simple math for why per drive is the better stat.
 
coit said:
I find it humorous that you consider Vandy a bad team and not giving us credit for crushing a team that beat UGA.
Click to expand...

The fact that you seem to think Vandy is good explains a lot about your football opinions. Vandy lost to the Lamecocks. Vandy is garbage.

uga is complete crap btw.
 
floridajacket said:
The offense can do better, but it's not as bad as the PPG stat shows. It's #36 in points per drive, versus #78 in points per game. That's a big difference and there's simple math for why per drive is the better stat.
Click to expand...

I think the Defense today is playing much, much better than it's played in years past. Let's be honest- we were BRUTAL for awhile there (2010-2013). Our D is not Brutal anymore though they're not world-beaters either. Another observation: Most Defenses in college today aren't very good. Most aren't Alabama.

The biggest difference is that our offense is no longer moving the ball as it did from 2008-2014. I don't understand why so many fans refuse to acknowledge this when our stats across the board are down for a 2nd year in a row. We aren't scoring 50+ like we used to against the crappy teams like Mercer. Our Team Rushing is down. Our PPG is down.

The Defense is arguably not playing as poorly as it used to and is keeping us in games like it hasn't before (BC, Clemson). I don't think it's fair that some 'fans' throw our D under the bus while continuing to give the offense a free pass because they like the scheme. And no, I'm not referring to you, FloridaJacket. I'm enjoying our discussion even as I disagree.
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
I think the Defense today is playing much, much better than it's played in years past. Let's be honest- we were BRUTAL for awhile there (2010-2013). Our D is not Brutal anymore though they're not world-beaters either. Another observation: Most Defenses in college today aren't very good. Most aren't Alabama.

The biggest difference is that our offense is no longer moving the ball as it did from 2008-2014. I don't understand why so many fans refuse to acknowledge this when our stats across the board are down for a 2nd year in a row. We aren't scoring 50+ like we used to against the crappy teams like Mercer. Our Team Rushing is down. Our PPG is down.

The Defense is arguably not playing as poorly as it used to and is keeping us in games like it hasn't before (BC, Clemson). I don't think it's fair that some 'fans' throw our D under the bus while continuing to give the offense a free pass because they like the scheme. And no, I'm not referring to you, FloridaJacket. I'm enjoying our discussion even as I disagree.
Click to expand...
Almost all of this is wrong. Just flat out wrong.

Our PPG ranking is down because we are slowing down the game on both sides of the ball, which the vast majority of CFB is speeding it up. We are dead last nationally in number of plays run, so of course we aren't scoring as much. And no, that is not a problem, because it also means our opponent has fewer opportunities to score. I don't know how many different ways someone can explain that to you in this thread. I specifically used efficiency because it shows how well we move the ball, rather than simply total points or yards. Here are our Offensive FEI rankings over the years:

2008: 24
2009: 2
2010: 64
2011: 16
2012: 11
2013: 39
2014: 3
2015: 88
2016: 13

The stats don't lie. We are quite consistent with how good we are offensively, and there is no downward trend. I won't lie...we were awful on offense last year. But if you look at the numbers, it makes sense. We were bad in 2010 because we graduated a ton of good players and had some key injuries (Nesbitt). We were terrible in 2015 because we graduated a ton of good players and had even more key injuries.
 
Here are our DFEI rankings:

Wommack:
2008: 71
2009: 100

Groh:
2010: 84
2011: 85
2012: 74

Roof:
2013: 77
2014: 70
2015: 62
2016: 97

Again, pretty consistent. As I've tried to say, this year's D is not better than years past. In Roof's defense, I would argue that our defensive talent was actually pretty good under Wommack, and decent under Groh, while Roof did not inherit much, especially on the DL. Perhaps the fact that he has achieved equivalent results with less talent is a point in his favor?

Sidenote: That dumbass Dave Wommack had Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett, in addition to some other really solid defensive players. 100th in total defense is an absolute joke. Can you imagine if we added those two players to our current defense?
 
johncu said:
Almost all of this is wrong. Just flat out wrong.

Our PPG ranking is down because we are slowing down the game on both sides of the ball, which the vast majority of CFB is speeding it up. We are dead last nationally in number of plays run, so of course we aren't scoring as much. And no, that is not a problem, because it also means our opponent has fewer opportunities to score. I don't know how many different ways someone can explain that to you in this thread. I specifically used efficiency because it shows how well we move the ball, rather than simply total points or yards. Here are our Offensive FEI rankings over the years:

2008: 24
2009: 2
2010: 64
2011: 16
2012: 11
2013: 39
2014: 3
2015: 88
2016: 13

The stats don't lie. We are quite consistent with how good we are offensively, and there is no downward trend. I won't lie...we were awful on offense last year. But if you look at the numbers, it makes sense. We were bad in 2010 because we graduated a ton of good players and had some key injuries (Nesbitt). We were terrible in 2015 because we graduated a ton of good players and had even more key injuries.
Click to expand...

Then what's the explanation for 3 TDs against Miami? Pitt? Less than 40 against Mercer? Why did we need 11+ play drives against basically a high-school defense?

Our OL in 2015 was a veteran OL with an experienced QB. The injury bug didn't hit us until mid-season on the OL. Long after the losing streak began.

Your explanation still fails to address the fact that we're getting outscored by the good teams on our schedule. So at minimum, it's a stupid strategy if it results in us losing, which it has against everyone we've played with a pulse this year.

It's also stupid to play a team like Pitt, whose pass D was ranked 125th in the nation when we played 'em, and only throw it 10 times (completing 7 for 130...so clearly, we had success there). It's stupid to not take advantage of glaring weaknesses like that. It's certainly not something an Offensive Genius would do.

And yes, Vandy ööööing sucks. So does Mercer and Ga Southern. No one should hang their hat on beating those clowns.

So does Duke. The UVA Cadavers crushed 'em and so should we.
 
johncu said:
Here are our DFEI rankings:

Wommack:
2008: 71
2009: 100

Groh:
2010: 84
2011: 85
2012: 74

Roof:
2013: 77
2014: 70
2015: 62
2016: 97

Again, pretty consistent. As I've tried to say, this year's D is not better than years past. In Roof's defense, I would argue that our defensive talent was actually pretty good under Wommack, and decent under Groh, while Roof did not inherit much, especially on the DL. Perhaps the fact that he has achieved equivalent results with less talent is a point in his favor?

Sidenote: That dumbass Dave Wommack had Derrick Morgan and Morgan Burnett, in addition to some other really solid defensive players. 100th in total defense is an absolute joke. Can you imagine if we added those two players to our current defense?
Click to expand...


And yet...the D was why we had a chance to beat BC (which we did when we started throwing the ball). The D was the only reason we had a shot vs Clemson, holding a top-5 offense to 3 pts in the 2nd half while our offense continued to sputter. The D limited Miami to 21 pts, which should have been enough to win, given our 27 PPG average.
 
@RamblinWreck92
Don't listen to them! Points per game is absolutely the most important stat.

We should ask the NCAA to make the game a cool 100 minutes. Then we'd probably score EVEN more. You're awesome!
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
The only "top 30" the O is ranked is 15th in Team Rushing
and
Team Rushing Yds/Game (We're 21st).

We're 65th in Points Scored.
We're 79th in Points/Game.
We're 85th in Total Yards
We're 106th in YDS/Game
We're 124th in Pass Yds/Game

I don't defend Roof but our D certainly can't shoulder all the blame for our record, as so many people here want to do. Our offense is plodding along by all measurements. Given how many Rushing attempts we have, those Rushing stats aren't terribly impressive.


http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/totalPointsPerGame
Click to expand...

I was referring to the data in the OP using advanced stats.

As has been shown/discussed, your use of per game stats is sloppy and misleading. I'm surprised you doubled down on it.

As the opponent adjusted FEI stats posted by @johncu show, this disparity is not new under Roof. It's just not significantly better.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top