Gloom and doom speculation

johncu said:
I just find that so hard to envision. This question is obviously from a place of ignorance, but will the virus not have run its course for the most part by then? At least in terms of overwhelming the healthcare system?
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Also, a summer of good ol' global warming should help mitigate things too. Plus, there'll be literal millions of people who've gotten it and recovered by then and thus are immune.

Don't get me wrong - TV ratings will almost surely be record-setting this fall!
 
RamblinWreck92 said:
Also, a summer of good ol' global warming should help mitigate things too. Plus, there'll be literal millions of people who've gotten it and recovered by then and thus are immune.

Don't get me wrong - TV ratings will almost surely be record-setting this fall!
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This was my thought. I'm awaiting test results myself... I think I'm actually on the upswing from the illness, so it would be pretty nice to have immunity.
 
johncu said:
This was my thought. I'm awaiting test results myself... I think I'm actually on the upswing from the illness, so it would be pretty nice to have immunity.
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Do we have a ST lottery winner here?
 
OldGold1968 said:
The Fun Police are killing my buzz. I may be only person that thinks this whole shut down everything to Flatten the Curve just doesn't make total sense to me.
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What doesn't make sense? I have a handful of friends that I graduated from GT with that are now doctors that are recommending this. In all seriousness, what about it is confusing?
 
xenoabe said:
What doesn't make sense? I have a handful of friends that I graduated from GT with that are now doctors that are recommending this. In all seriousness, what about it is confusing?
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Just because someone is a medical doctor (expert in individual health), doesn't mean they understand public health (expert in health of large groups). Also, even if someone is an expert in public health, that doesn't make them an expert in macro economics. You would need experts in both public health and macro economics to assess the tradeoff in both areas from a quarantine.
 
xenoabe said:
What doesn't make sense? I have a handful of friends that I graduated from GT with that are now doctors that are recommending this. In all seriousness, what about it is confusing?
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Well let's see. In a matter of a few weeks we have shut down all sports, bars , nightclubs concerts, churches & so on. In another few weeks unemployment will hit 30%. All of this to "Save Lives" & keep hospitals from over crowding. Folks get ready for a 5000% increase in suicides & violent crimes. I am not sure this thing is any more contagious then common flu. It may seem to spread faster since unlike the flu half the people may have no symptoms so they continue to socialize. This makes me skeptical of the mortality rate that gets reported. Also the people that die seem to have "Underlying health conditions ". Well be specific & report EXACTLY what they had so those people can quarantine. Since we won't have a LEGAL vaccine this year push hard for testing. If & it's a big IF we can get convenient testing with speedy results & drugs to minimize the severity of the virus we MAY have some sort of Football this fall. Right now I give it about 10% chance.
 
OldGold1968 said:
Well let's see. In a matter of a few weeks we have shut down all sports, bars , nightclubs concerts, churches & so on. In another few weeks unemployment will hit 30%. All of this to "Save Lives" & keep hospitals from over crowding. Folks get ready for a 5000% increase in suicides & violent crimes. I am not sure this thing is any more contagious then common flu. It may seem to spread faster since unlike the flu half the people may have no symptoms so they continue to socialize. This makes me skeptical of the mortality rate that gets reported. Also the people that die seem to have "Underlying health conditions ". Well be specific & report EXACTLY what they had so those people can quarantine. Since we won't have a LEGAL vaccine this year push hard for testing. If & it's a big IF we can get convenient testing with speedy results & drugs to minimize the severity of the virus we MAY have some sort of Football this fall. Right now I give it about 10% chance.
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Staying on topic I see... (gloom, doom, and speculation)

It's the uncertainty about things that lead to this viewpoint. I get it. My wife works at the hospital. It's like nothing that has been seen in our lifetimes. That being said, the American spirit is alive and well-- fighting the good fight. There are plenty of inspirational stories of courage, selflessness, giving, and fortitude in these trying times. That spirit, coupled with the technology and innovation available in today's world, makes me think that we will be in a much certain outlook by the end of June. I'm hopeful for the best July 4th ever.
 
OldGold1968 said:
Well let's see. In a matter of a few weeks we have shut down all sports, bars , nightclubs concerts, churches & so on. In another few weeks unemployment will hit 30%. All of this to "Save Lives" & keep hospitals from over crowding. Folks get ready for a 5000% increase in suicides & violent crimes. I am not sure this thing is any more contagious then common flu. It may seem to spread faster since unlike the flu half the people may have no symptoms so they continue to socialize. This makes me skeptical of the mortality rate that gets reported. Also the people that die seem to have "Underlying health conditions ". Well be specific & report EXACTLY what they had so those people can quarantine. Since we won't have a LEGAL vaccine this year push hard for testing. If & it's a big IF we can get convenient testing with speedy results & drugs to minimize the severity of the virus we MAY have some sort of Football this fall. Right now I give it about 10% chance.
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Let's say we did nothing and 40% of the population got it, which is a low estimate from most experts if we went about life as normal. Let's then cut the mortality rate down to 0.5%, which again is low. That's 662K people that would die. I'm not ok just letting that many people die. I understand the unintended consequences and all of that but having that many people die around you, not to mention the people that have permanent damage even after they recover, isn't exactly good for morale either. When you factor in the economics and ancillary issues it gets complicated, I get it, but I just can't get on board with this 'let it do its damage and let's get on with life like it was' attitude I've seen from many people, including ones I know.
 
johncu said:
This was my thought. I'm awaiting test results myself... I think I'm actually on the upswing from the illness, so it would be pretty nice to have immunity.
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You got your results back yet?
 
Not ok with that many people dying? Damn, it’s called being human, we all eventually experience death. Other current variables in humanity kill many more people than this a year, many of which are self-induced. Why does fear of an unknown cause people to suddenly set immortality as their bar for acceptable outcomes?

Also, epidemics and pandemics are natures way of population regulation, and many of the same people clamoring for more action on this issue are also up in arms over global warming, lack of affordable healthcare, wealth inequality, etc, all symptoms of overpopulation.

Seems like a lot in our country forget we are, in fact, living organisms that are not exempt from natural law.
 
Do some math here. What % of Unite States has tested positive for the virus. Well US population is 327 million & currently we have 55k cases. Let's just say as my liberal friend just told me that 10 times that # are actually infected. That would be 550k. He also informed me that 3% die from this bug but I am having a hard time making 800 deaths 3% of a 550k. You see you can't have it both ways. You can't say say that for every person tested their are 10 that have it and keep the death rate 3%. I am pretty sure it has got the attention of the American people. Isolate the people that are high risk & let's get back to work.
 
GTpimp said:
Not ok with that many people dying? Damn, it’s called being human, we all eventually experience death. Other current variables in humanity kill many more people than this a year, many of which are self-induced. Why does fear of an unknown cause people to suddenly set immortality as their bar for acceptable outcomes?

Also, epidemics and pandemics are natures way of population regulation, and many of the same people clamoring for more action on this issue are also up in arms over global warming, lack of affordable healthcare, wealth inequality, etc, all symptoms of overpopulation.

Seems like a lot in our country forget we are, in fact, living organisms that are not exempt from natural law.
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You had me right up to "all symptoms of overpopulation"

But better move it to N&P if you want to discuss further!
 
Jesus Christ. Maybe we do need to let the virus go unchecked and kill off some of you dumbass boomers.

#boomerremover
 
OldGold1968 said:
Do some math here. What % of Unite States has tested positive for the virus. Well US population is 327 million & currently we have 55k cases. Let's just say as my liberal friend just told me that 10 times that # are actually infected. That would be 550k. He also informed me that 3% die from this bug but I am having a hard time making 800 deaths 3% of a 550k. You see you can't have it both ways. You can't say say that for every person tested their are 10 that have it and keep the death rate 3%. I am pretty sure it has got the attention of the American people. Isolate the people that are high risk & let's get back to work.
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1. Some of the people who currently have the disease will die but haven't yet (you aren't counting them in your math), and if we run out of hospital beds/medical supplies (the reason to flatten the curve) the death rate skyrockets (most serious cases without a ventilator will die).

2. Your point remains about the death rate being lower than advertised. Maybe it's only 0.5% (like xenoabe said above). But even then, approximately half of the entire country would become infected without shutting things down, and we wouldn't have the resources to treat them. That conservative estimate adds up to 1 out of every 400 people dying from this thing. That is way way higher than the murder rate or suicide rate by orders of magnitude. Are you arguing that murder and suicide will increase by many orders of magnitude? Doesn't seem plausible.
 
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