I was afraid of VpissU yesterday...

MtownJacket

MtownJacket

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But today I actually feel very good about this game.

Statistically they haven't done much better this season than we have:

GT O: 426.27 YPG
GT D: 385.12 YPG
VT O: 387.67 YPG
VT D: 316.33 YPG

We make the assumption that the GT O vs VT D and GT D vs VT O will balance out by averaging the yards per game allowed and gained:

GT expected yards: (426.67+310.53)/2 = 368.50
VT expected yards: (387.67+385.17)/2 = 386.42
Which gives VT a 17.92 yard advantage.

But that doesn't tell the whole story. How do the strengths of GT match up with the strengths of VT? How about ball control? How about Rush vs Pass tendencies?

GT rush O: 318 plays, 5.23 YPC
GT pass O: 75 plays, 11.97 YPA
GT rush D: 4.19 YPC
GT pass D: 8.01 YPA
GT plays allowed: 381
GT total plays: 393
VT rush O: 266 plays, 4.7 YPC
VT pass O: 109 plays, 9.86 YPA
VT rush D: 3.59 YPC
VT pass D: 6.07 YPA
VT plays allowed: 393
VT total plays: 375

First we find the average YPC and YPA by averaging allowed and gained yards.
Then we find the ratio of pass and rush plays to total plays a team uses.
Then you multiply the ratios by their respective expected values per play and add the results.
This gives you the expected yards per play by each team.
Then you find the average of the number of plays allowed and executed by opposing O vs D to establish ball control.
Finally, divide that by the number of games and you get your answer:

GT expected yards:
[(318/393)(5.23+3.59)/2+(75/393)(11.97+6.07)/2](393+393)/(2*6) = 348.48

VT expected yards:
[(266/375)(4.70+4.19)/2+(109/375)(9.86+8.01)/2](375+381)/(2*6) = 362.25

which gives VT a 13.77 yard avantage.
(ironically GT actually helps VT by allowing more plays than VT normally executes)

Then you have to throw strength of schedule in there courtesy of the Sagarin ratings:

The Sagarin rankings give VTs SOS a .7894 (#2 in the nation) value and GTs SOS a .7449 value (#15 in the nation).

So not really knowing how these values were computed I will try to apply them in some way that makes sense...

So I will normalize the rankings so that the average is 1 and see what the result is:

GT multiplier = .7447*2/(.7894+.7447 ) = .9709
VT multiplier = .7894*2/(.7894+.7447 ) = 1.0291
GT expected yards = 338.34
VT expected yards = 372.81

Which gives VT a 34.47 yard advantage.

I would say that home field advantage covers this alone, but throw in emotion, revenge, and what's at stake and I think GT could win handily.

Thoughts?
 
Both teams have improved over the course of the season, so I don't think the stats mean that much as far as Saturday's game goes. Our offense will get a great test against VT. I think we will look much better than we did against Miami. It has been widely stated that Taylor has become a much better passer recently, but what happened with Duke? Anything can happen. The stats don't look very scary.
 
Nice job putting that together, but you throw stats out the window this game. They are pretty much meaningless.
 
Thank god someone did the math. Now I don't have to watch the game at all.
 
Good analysis. I do feel good about this game. I was more worried about FSU at the beginning of the season and I was really worried when all of the drama happened. It's never easy to overcome that and as we all saw they definitely gave us their best shot. But we weathered the storm and it worked out.

VT showed me that they were vulnerable against the run and their corner's particularly this Chancellor guy haven't been the VT D of the past.

Those stats you show only show a 34 yard difference in D allowed and I really like that one now.

GO JACKETS!
 
If our offense was consistent over the past however many games, then I would take that into consideration. But, seeing how our offense finally "clicked" after the Miami game, the stats may be skewed a little bit. The stats from the UNC, MSU, and FSU games would be more representative of our offense now, IMHO. I could be wrong though.
 
Either you're yellowGTjackets on the ESPN blogs or a plagiarist...
 
Is it just me or does this analysis completely ignore penalties and turnovers?
 
cajunjacket said:
Yep. Exhibit A:

December 31, 2008:

GT vs. LSU

Total Offense
GT - 314
LSU - 324 (only 10 more yards)

Final Score
LSU 38 GT 3
Click to expand...

This

Last year against Miss State, they had close to our yardage total. This year they out-gained us yardage wise, and we were in control the entire game.

Even last week we were out-gained offensively.

See if someone can dig up these numbers: Red Zone offense (TD/FG ratio, scoring percent, total opportunities), Penalties per game, Turnovers per game. If we add these numbers in with the original set, we have a better indication of how well the teams play.

Also....god we're some nerdy people...haha
 
Lionheart said:
This

Last year against Miss State, they had close to our yardage total. This year they out-gained us yardage wise, and we were in control the entire game.

Even last week we were out-gained offensively.

See if someone can dig up these numbers: Red Zone offense (TD/FG ratio, scoring percent, total opportunities), Penalties per game, Turnovers per game. If we add these numbers in with the original set, we have a better indication of how well the teams play.

Also....god we're some nerdy people...haha
Click to expand...

Be my guest, I would be very interested to see a second opinion.
 
beej67 said:
Thank god someone did the math. Now I don't have to watch the game at all.
Click to expand...

Wait a minute, I have to jump in here and say something. My feeling is that you have put far too much stock in these numbers and calculations. Football is a game of young men, emotion, and human error to be sure! It cannot be boiled down to numbers and projuections and statistics. The idea that you would not watch a game because of a complex mathematical projection is absurd, if you ask me. Consider all the upsets we have seen over the years, games decided by blocked field goals, bad calls, amazing catches, freakish turnovers. I find it just, well, I hate to say this, and I mean no offense, but downright silly that someone would actually choose not to watch a game because of the faith they put in numbers and analysis to predict what several young men will do on the gridiron. Why, youngsters might as well not suit up and take the field at all if number crunching could predict the outcome!

Sincerely,

People who still can't detect "TIC" without a label.​
 
GiveEmHellJackets said:
Wait a minute, I have to jump in here and say something. My feeling is that you have put far too much stock in these numbers and calculations. Football is a game of young men, emotion, and human error to be sure! It cannot be boiled down to numbers and projuections and statistics. The idea that you would not watch a game because of a complex mathematical projection is absurd, if you ask me. Consider all the upsets we have seen over the years, games decided by blocked field goals, bad calls, amazing catches, freakish turnovers. I find it just, well, I hate to say this, and I mean no offense, but downright silly that someone would actually choose not to watch a game because of the faith they put in numbers and analysis to predict what several young men will do on the gridiron. Why, youngsters might as well not suit up and take the field at all if number crunching could predict the outcome!

Sincerely,

People who still can't detect "TIC" without a label.​
Click to expand...

Now you're just trying to anger me. :angryfire:
 
Lionheart said:
See if someone can dig up these numbers: Red Zone offense (TD/FG ratio, scoring percent, total opportunities), Penalties per game, Turnovers per game. If we add these numbers in with the original set, we have a better indication of how well the teams play.

Also....god we're some nerdy people...haha
Click to expand...

Red Zone Stats

VT
20 Drives
17 Scores
98 Points
12 TDs
5 FGs
85%

GT
27 Drives
20 Scores
116 Points
14 TDs
6 FGs
74%

Aside: Amazingly, UVA is one of 3 teams with 100% red zone scoring.
 
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