In response to the win count prediction thread

Lay em down & smackem Jackets

Lay em down & smackem Jackets

Flats Noob
Joined
Nov 19, 2003
Messages
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At the point that I stopped reading I felt the average was around 7 wins. I agree with this expectation.

However, I am guessing that we win 8 (or 9?). I know that we have a lot of questions. On paper one would think that this is improbable to say the least. I would like to put forth the argument that Paul Johnson will win a couple of games he shouldn't on pure will, alone.

Why am I more optimistic?
  • Paul Johnson is getting paid way too much to come in and have a "rebuilding year". I think he know this, too. Therefore, I refuse to expect one.
  • Chan Gailey left the cupboard full of talent.
  • PLAY MAKERS - Nesbitt, Dwyer, Donley, & Burnett
  • A defensive line that returns Walker, Richard, Johnson and remains coached by a star in the making, Giff Smith. We've got Morgan in there, as well, who has talent and a little bit of experience. However, there is a downside in that we don't have too much depth.
  • Charles Kelly coaching the DBs that include Burnett and, I am predicting, Donley. I have to think Kelly's success on special teams will transfer to the DBs.
  • We have a winner as our head coach now. He's feisty, honest, and has a strong history.
Why will we lose games next year?
  • Linebackers. This will be a weak spot. However, the bright side is that Jean-Mary is still here to coach them. If anyone will be rebuilding, it will be this position and I'm glad they retain someone who is familiar with the current personnel. I am looking forward to seeing Brad Jefferson play.
  • Secondary. Although, I see a bigger bright spot with this unit. The main reasons being Burnett and Kelly.
  • OLine. If someone who knows more about football can please color this point further as I know little about it. My gut feeling is that this is where the most crucial adjustment takes place on the entire team. We lose Tuminello, Rhodes, and McManus. We keep Lonowski, Howard, and Gardner. Also, we have Claytor, Yandell, and Voss coming up. Again, we have the talent, experience, and depth. However, our personnel is in for a big change.
  • Special teams - we lose a bunch o' talent. However, I think we have a coaching staff in place that can try and maintain the level of success. At the very least, we have a safety net in Charles Kelly that had success with this personnel.
In summation, I think Paul Johnson has the tools he needs on hand to maintain our current level of performance. I think he has the ability to find ways to win games he shouldn't. Maintain Current Performance (7) + CPJ's winnertude (1 or 2) = 8 or 9 wins.
 
Lay em down & smackem Jackets said:
  • Paul Johnson is getting paid way too much to come in and have a "rebuilding year". I think he know this, too. Therefore, I refuse to expect one.
Click to expand...

You do know that the first salary quote to come out was incorrect, right?

Either way, I don't think "rebuilding year" is in Paul Johnson's vocabulary.
 
Paul Johnson isn't being paid 'way too much' by any rational standard. We got him on the cheap. And that cupboard full of talent (including those playmakers) just got wasted by Fresno State and loses a whole lot more starters to graduation.
 
7 wins would be a remarkable achievement. I don't think it's realistic with a change of coaches.
 
" We keep Lonowski, Howard, and Gardner. Also, we have Claytor, Yandell, and Voss coming up. Again, we have the talent, experience, and depth. However, our personnel is in for a big change. "

You forgot about AJ Smith who started a number of games for us this while struggling with injuries.

You also forgot to list Trey Dunmon who was part of the rotation in every game this year.

Dan Voss started at left guard in the last 6 games.

Gilbert is another up and comming Red shirt freshmen

Jason Hill & David Brown have also had some limited playing time.

Although there will be changes, there is talent & experiece there
 
Joseph Gilbert was brought in primarily as an Offensive Guard. He also started learning the Center position as well.

70 Joseph Gilbert OL6-4 280 9/11/1988 FR Cartersville, GA (Cartersville HS)

This what was said when he was recruited. " He’s got the feet to play tackle. He played tackle at Cartersville. He’s got the size of an interior lineman. He’ll play guard and he can really move. I can see him being one of those mobile offensive linemen that pulls a lot. And then he’s very strong locking onto guys too, so he’ll be an asset in the running game or passing game. Very good pickup.” "
 
GEETEELEE said:
7 wins would be a remarkable achievement. I don't think it's realistic with a change of coaches.
Click to expand...

Gailey did it, right? why not the "much better coach" Paul Johnson? if we fired a guy with no losing seasons, then we better not be willing to settle for a losing season due to something like 'transition'. Gailey had that, lost 10 players, and scholly reductions each year too.

if we are 'moving forward' then LESS than 7 wins is a FAILURE
 
Just like we have had for quite some time we have enough built in wins that .500 is almost a gimme. We have a surplus of crappy teams on the schedule.
 
BuzzCzar said:
Gailey did it, right? why not the "much better coach" Paul Johnson? if we fired a guy with no losing seasons, then we better not be willing to settle for a losing season due to something like 'transition'. Gailey had that, lost 10 players, and scholly reductions each year too.

if we are 'moving forward' then LESS than 7 wins is a FAILURE
Click to expand...
Gailey isn't gone because of any one year. While I don't expect less than 7 wins, the point of making a change is for the long term, not next year. This is not about having no losing seasons, it's about competing for championships. I'm willing to suffer through some transition for a better program in the long term.

Oh, and Gailey didn't really have a transition to go through. He kept the OC and had a veteran team returning.
 
BuzzCzar said:
Gailey did it, right? why not the "much better coach" Paul Johnson? if we fired a guy with no losing seasons, then we better not be willing to settle for a losing season due to something like 'transition'. Gailey had that, lost 10 players, and scholly reductions each year too.

if we are 'moving forward' then LESS than 7 wins is a FAILURE
Click to expand...

1. Because of the transition we will lose recruits and players. This is a short term thing, but will affect the upcoming season.

2. We lose a lot of starters to graduation. Yes, we still have decent talent, but some will take a few games to get up to speed.

3. PJ will be installing a 100% new offense. It will take at least a year to get it fully functional and the players up to speed.

I really don't expect 7 wins this year, but by gawd, I can't wait until the next!
 
GEETEELEE said:
1. Because of the transition we will lose recruits and players. This is a short term thing, but will affect the upcoming season.

2. We lose a lot of starters to graduation. Yes, we still have decent talent, but some will take a few games to get up to speed.

3. PJ will be installing a 100% new offense. It will take at least a year to get it fully functional and the players up to speed.
I really don't expect 7 wins this year, but by gawd, I can't wait until the next!
Click to expand...

AND
add the fact that we don't have a QB at this point
SO- lucky to be 6-6 (not even knowing the 12 th game
 
As has been alluded to, I see the biggest change and challenge to our immediate success being the installation of the new offense.

When Gailey came in he started with a very limited, grade school playbook and held a very conservative notion to change during his entire tenure. Johnson's "new" offense is going be a 180 from what we've been doing and what Gailey did in transition. I feel like next season will depend on how well we pick up the new O. It's going to be a major change without a whole lot of practices. CPJ and staff have their hands full if next season is to be more than one giant learning curve (see Johnson's first year at Navy).

I'm hoping for the best. I think Johnson is a genius and will pull it off. :fingersx:
 
my point is not saying anything bad about Paul Johnson or trying in any way to defend Gailey

... but..

Gailey had all the same problems when he came in and won 7 games in a tougher league (ACC has declined in last 2-3 years, IMO). we also had no QB, that is why he ended up starting a true freshman. we also had a transition to a new offense. the way Gailey handled it led to a limited playbook, but 7 wins.
why should we not expect the same of a guy that is making more $$ than the guy we fired that did it?

also, if you actually look at the numbers this would have been the first year that Gailey's record was not better to or equal to the year before. so we were actually improving in the results area.

i still dont hear a reason why we should not expect 7 wins from this guy
 
We did not transition into a new offense. Gailey retained Bill O'Brien because:

"I’m smart enough to know when Georgia Tech’s been winning football games doing what they’re doing, I’m not going to change. I don’t have a name for my offense. You can call it imaginative, you can call it conservative. I don’t care what you call it, as long as we win. To me, they’ve done an excellent job at Georgia Tech, and I don’t want that to change. I want that to continue. I’m not going to take on the offensive coordinator’s role. I’m going to take on the head coaching role." - Gailey

The rest, as they say, is history.
 
BuzzCzar said:
my point is not saying anything bad about Paul Johnson or trying in any way to defend Gailey

... but..

Gailey had all the same problems when he came in and won 7 games in a tougher league (ACC has declined in last 2-3 years, IMO). we also had no QB, that is why he ended up starting a true freshman. we also had a transition to a new offense. the way Gailey handled it led to a limited playbook, but 7 wins.
why should we not expect the same of a guy that is making more $$ than the guy we fired that did it?

also, if you actually look at the numbers this would have been the first year that Gailey's record was not better to or equal to the year before. so we were actually improving in the results area.

i still dont hear a reason why we should not expect 7 wins from this guy
Click to expand...

My expectations are lower for next season (and possibly the year after). This is an extreme change in offensive philosophy and if you believe some of the things that have been posted since Chan was fired, an extreme change in management style. This is not a seemless transition.
 
knoxjacket said:
We did not transition into a new offense. Gailey retained Bill O'Brien because:

"I’m smart enough to know when Georgia Tech’s been winning football games doing what they’re doing, I’m not going to change. I don’t have a name for my offense. You can call it imaginative, you can call it conservative. I don’t care what you call it, as long as we win. To me, they’ve done an excellent job at Georgia Tech, and I don’t want that to change. I want that to continue. I’m not going to take on the offensive coordinator’s role. I’m going to take on the head coaching role." - Gailey

The rest, as they say, is history.
Click to expand...

That's pretty funny. The way I remember it is - we (the fans) wanted to retain (errr...forced his hand into retaining) the Fridge protege.
 
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