Miami favored in Vegas early line

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yellowjacket

Varsity Lurker
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Miami 4 points over GT; Ga and Ark is pickem; Fla 25 over TN, Clemson 6.5 over BC; VPI 3.5 over Neb;
UNC 10 0ver ECU; BYU 6.5 over FSU; Miss Sou 14.5 over UVA; Kansas 20.5 over Duke.
 
Miami favored doesn't surprise me.
UNC favored by over a touchdown does. UCONN was a mid level Big East team. ECU is the defending C-USA champion.
 
I am a little mystified over being a 4 pt. road dog but nothing to get upset over. I will be more interested to see where it moves this week.
 
Remember, the line is all about getting equal totals on each side of the betting, so it is more a reflection of what the oddsmakers think the betting public thinks. If Miami shows any signs of hopefulness at all they are going to start drawing in the betting money compared to us.
 
refrigeratormover said:
I'm acutally surprised it's not more. Could be by end of week.
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Not that I bet, but I was expecting about 6 1/2 or 7. Sagarin has Miami about 1 1/2 points ahead of us on a neutral field, plus you get 3 to 5 for home field. Plus, I know a lot more people who gamble in South Florida than here.
 
It doesn't suprise me that we're a dog. i like us and the points all day.

Everyone is beatin' it to Miami after what they did to FSU. Who's to say who's good or not between the two? FSU took the lead on JSU in the last 5 minutes of the game.

That doesn't say a lot for Miami if you ask me.

Harris had time to drink a 40 oz back there. Either their line is that good or FSU's is that bad??? Who the hell knows.....it's Week 2

But that's the BSness (yeah, I made that word up) of the polling at this point in the season.

With the exception of a handful of teams, there's NO WAY to accurately tell who's legit and who isn't.
 
gthog61 said:
Remember, the line is all about getting equal totals on each side of the betting
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This is such a poorly understood concept of how gambling lines work.

There are LOTS of times that Vegas sets lines that it knows will not get 50/50, but it sets an unfair line that will get more money in on the worse end.

Take, for instance, the USC/Texas NC game where USC was a 7 point favorite and probably deserved to be about 4. Vegas will gladly take > 50% on the USC side of the action because they know they set an "unfair" line but the public is too dumb to catch on for various reasons.

Also, internet gambling lines have exponentially grown the opportunities for them to play with the vig rather than the line to fiddle with payout structures.

Usually it doesn't happen on a game as big as the USC one just because there's so much money coming in, but they were super overhyped going in to that game as I'm sure everyone remembers.
 
gthog61 said:
Remember, the line is all about getting equal totals on each side of the betting...
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Miami is attracting more betting $$ than GT for two reasons: their victory over F$U and our 2nd half collapse against Clemson. Bettingwise, a team that can't protect a 24 point lead can't be better than a team that beat F$U.

But I have gotten a lot of betting mileage factoring in the idea that good teams who play poorly in a given game usually play much better in their next game and that teams who score upsets (even mild ones) are usually a little off in their next game. Both factors point in GT's direction this week so take GT to cover.

Remember you aren't betting for or against either team but against everyone else who is placing a wager.
 
The fallacy of this line is that Clemson is a better team than FSU.
 
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