More than one week to prepare: myth or reality?

State shut our offense down tremendously in the first half.

You need to ask yourself the opposite question, ncjacket. If LSU only had a week of prep time, and wasn't able to fire their DC and temporarily hire an option defense guru for a month (which they did), would we have beaten them? I think quite possibly. Adrian Clayborne was quoted before the Iowa game saying, "I pity the guys in the ACC who have to prepare for this in a week. I don't know how they do it." do we beat Iowa on one week layover? Maybe we do.

What would our record be the past few years if we were running a Chan on O?
 
cyptomcat said:
I am pretty sure you favored us against LSU just like rest of us and like the rest of the country. All this is after the fact posting, show me a post where you said LSU should be favored.
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I can't show you a post because I never predict games. But whether we were favored or not, once we were on the field, you're telling me you thought we were the better team? And I don't mean after the game...I mean when it started. The reason we were favored was because LSU had such a surprisingly bad year. In the bowl, they did do a decent job against us, but more importantly they actually played well for a change. If memory serves they changed QBs as well. If they had played like that over the course of the year they wouldn't have been playing us.
 
beej67 said:
State shut our offense down tremendously in the first half.

You need to ask yourself the opposite question, ncjacket. If LSU only had a week of prep time, and wasn't able to fire their DC and temporarily hire an option defense guru for a month (which they did), would we have beaten them? I think quite possibly. Adrian Clayborne was quoted before the Iowa game saying, "I pity the guys in the ACC who have to prepare for this in a week. I don't know how they do it." do we beat Iowa on one week layover? Maybe we do.

What would our record be the past few years if we were running a Chan on O?
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Listen, if you read my posts I didn't say that extra tim doesn't help. But I think you guys are overselling the impact. Extra time should help any team against any offense. Yes, our offense is different so it probably helps more, but it doesn't mean the offense shouldn't be effective anyway.

On the LSU thing, you're mixing in a lot of variables that have nothing to do with extra time per se. The DC change was only one thing that changed at LSU over that month. They were basically a different team than they were at the end of the year. What I'm saying is if they had played to their potential all year, like they did in the bowl game, they would have been in a bigger bowl. But we did actually move the ball in that game until it got out of hand. Our STs and D really cost that game.
 
ncjacket said:
I can't show you a post because I never predict games. But whether we were favored or not, once we were on the field, you're telling me you thought we were the better team? And I don't mean after the game...I mean when it started. The reason we were favored was because LSU had such a surprisingly bad year. In the bowl, they did do a decent job against us, but more importantly they actually played well for a change. If memory serves they changed QBs as well. If they had played like that over the course of the year they wouldn't have been playing us.
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no, Jefferson already started several games in a row for them

sorry man, you are just arguing without facts and yes we were favored when the game started. In fact we had many many posters argue for last two years that we had a lot of yards in that game and only lost because of bad breaks. -3 in turnovers etc.

I have already shown this statement by you is wrong for extra preparation: "overall we've won most of the games we would have been expected to"

ncjacket said:
Listen, if you read my posts I didn't say that extra tim doesn't help. But I think you guys are overselling the impact. Extra time should help any team against any offense. Yes, our offense is different so it probably helps more, but it doesn't mean the offense shouldn't be effective anyway.
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bolded statement has been my whole point, so we actually agree. That's why I have cited the adjusted yards per play, bolded statement is exactly what it says.
 
Yes, our offense is different so it probably helps more
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Glad we agree.

Now, how much more?

I would say on average a team has a 30% better chance of beating us after a layover than they would with only a week to prepare.
 
cyptomcat said:
no, Jefferson already started several games in a row for them

sorry man, you are just arguing without facts and yes we were favored when the game started. In fact we had many many posters argue for last two years that we had a lot of yards in that game and only lost because of bad breaks. -3 in turnovers etc.

I have already shown this statement by you is wrong for extra preparation: "overall we've won most of the games we would have been expected to"


bolded statement has been my whole point, so we actually agree. That's why I have cited the adjusted yards per play, bolded statement is exactly what it says.
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Just curious, what was our yds/play in the first vs second Clemson game in '09? When u play someone twice in a short time frame it's a much greater advantage than just a few days extra prep for one game---hence, why you hear so often how hard it is to beat a team twice. If there's an ounce of extra prep advantage truth, it should show dramatically in this comparison (and no I don't know the figures).

Another interesting comparison would be that of ugag in '08 vs ugag in '09. Didn't ugag have extra prep time in '08, but not in '09?
 
GoldZ said:
Just curious, what was our yds/play in the first vs second Clemson game in '09? When u play someone twice in a short time frame it's a much greater advantage than just a few days extra prep for one game---hence, why you hear so often how hard it is to beat a team twice. If there's an ounce of extra prep advantage truth, it should show dramatically in this comparison (and no I don't know the figures).

Another interesting comparison would be that of ugag in '08 vs ugag in '09. Didn't ugag have extra prep time in '08, but not in '09?
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just looking at one game is not a good approach, I looked at 3 seasons of yards per play stats. I can tell you Clemson did much better defensively last year though.
 
This would cover 4 games. Two in one season about a month apart.
 
GoldZ said:
This would cover 4 games. Two in one season about a month apart.
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I have all the data at the link below, feel free to look at it. Just to help, here are the numbers for those 4 games (first number YPP GT got, second number what Clemson gave overall that season)

08 Clemson: 4.66 - 4.5
09 Clemson: 6.53 - 4.6
09 Clemson: 5.66 - 4.6
10 Clemson: 4.79 - 4.8

When you open the link, click on the tabs at the bottom of the page to move between the sheets/pages:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ENBQk1fRTYyRDFIVTdOa1Q0cXNrbGc&hl=en_US#gid=2
 
Many Thanks cyptomcat! The 4 games I was referencing were the 2 vs Clemson in '09 and the '08 and '09 ugag games. So:

In Clemson's first game we gained 418 yards and in the second game (when Clemson should have had an advantage even greater than 10-14 days prep time) we gained 469 yards...hmmm. Yeah I know why you emphasize yds/play but this can be impacted a lot by how many 3rd and shorts we faced (and Nesbitt seemed to face several vs Clemson). At any rate, this doesn't bode well for the all powerful xtra prep time theory. Plus the fact that we actually won both games!

The '08 ugag game when they had 2 weeks of prep we gained 6.91 yds/play and then in '09 with 1 week prep we gained 5.31 yds/play...hmmm. Again, not favorable to the theory. Plus the fact that we won in '08 and lost in '09.

I can see now why these match-ups mentioned in my previous posts were sidestepped by the xtra prep HWFO crowd.

Look, there's simply a lot more to this than the surface stats.
 
GoldZ said:
Many Thanks cyptomcat! The 4 games I was referencing were the 2 vs Clemson in '09 and the '08 and '09 ugag games. So:

In Clemson's first game we gained 418 yards and in the second game (when Clemson should have had an advantage even greater than 10-14 days prep time) we gained 469 yards...hmmm. Yeah I know why you emphasize yds/play but this can be impacted a lot by how many 3rd and shorts we faced (and Nesbitt seemed to face several vs Clemson). At any rate, this doesn't bode well for the all powerful xtra prep time theory. Plus the fact that we actually won both games!

The '08 ugag game when they had 2 weeks of prep we gained 6.91 yds/play and then in '09 with 1 week prep we gained 5.31 yds/play...hmmm. Again, not favorable to the theory. Plus the fact that we won in '08 and lost in '09.

I can see now why these match-ups mentioned in my previous posts were sidestepped by the xtra prep HWFO crowd.

Look, there's simply a lot more to this than the surface stats.
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Actually HWFO is what you just did by picking and choosing.

This is a trend on average, doesn't apply to every single game, every single DC or every single defensive group.

If you want to look at yards, look at it for 3 years, and you will find we do worse when opponents have extra time.
 
Dec. 31, 2009 Texas Bowl-Navy 35, Missouri 13

Dec. 20, 2008 EagleBank Bowl-Wake Forest 29, Navy 19

Dec. 20, 2007 Pointsettia Bowl-Utah 35, Navy 32

Dec. 30, 2006 Meineke Bowl-Boston College 25, Navy 24

Dec. 22, 2005 Poinsettia Bowl-Navy 51, Colorado St. 30

Dec. 30, 2004 Emerald Bowl-Navy 34, New Mexico 19
 
GoldZ said:
Dec. 31, 2009 Texas Bowl-Navy 35, Missouri 13

Dec. 20, 2008 EagleBank Bowl-Wake Forest 29, Navy 19

Dec. 20, 2007 Pointsettia Bowl-Utah 35, Navy 32

Dec. 30, 2006 Meineke Bowl-Boston College 25, Navy 24

Dec. 22, 2005 Poinsettia Bowl-Navy 51, Colorado St. 30

Dec. 30, 2004 Emerald Bowl-Navy 34, New Mexico 19
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Interesting it looks like couple teams with good defensive coaching made good use of the extra prep time. :biggthumpup:

btw you missed this one too: Poinsetta Bowl San Diego State 35 - Navy 14
 
AFA Bowl Record with TO---and the hits just keep on coming!

1982 8–5 4–3 (WAC) Hall of Fame vs. Vanderbilt, W, 36–28
1983 10–2 5–2 (WAC) Independence vs. Mississippi, W, 9–3
1984 8–4 4–3 (WAC) Independence vs. Virginia Tech, W, 23–7
1985 12–1 7–1 (WAC) Bluebonnet vs. Texas, W. 24–16
1986 6–5 5–2 (WAC)
1987 9–4 6–2 (WAC) Freedom vs. Arizona State, L, 28–33
1988 5–7 3–5 (WAC)
1989 8–4–1 5–1–1 (WAC) Liberty vs. Mississippi, L, 29–42
1990 7–5 3–4 (WAC) Liberty vs. Ohio State, W, 23–11
1991 10–3 6–2 (WAC) Liberty vs. Mississippi State, W, 38–15
1992 7–5 4–4 (WAC) Liberty vs. Mississippi, L, 0–13
1993 4–8 1–7 (WAC)
1994 8–4 6–2 (WAC)
1995 8–5 6–2 (WAC) Copper vs. Texas Tech, L, 41–55
1996 6–5 5–3 (WAC)
1997 10–3 6–2 (WAC) Las Vegas vs. Oregon, L, 13–41
1998 12–1 7–1 (WAC) O’ahu vs. Washington, W, 45–25
1999 6–5 2–5 (MWC)
2000 9–3 5–2 (MWC) Silicon Valley vs. Fresno State, W, 37–34
2001 6–6 3–4 (MWC)
2002 8–5 4–3 (MWC) San Francisco vs. Virginia Tech, L, 13–20
2003 7–5 3–4 (MWC)
2004 5–6 3–4 (MWC)
2005 4–7 3–5 (MWC)
2006 4–8 3–4 (MWC)
2007 9–4 6–2 (MWC) Armed Forces vs. California, L, 36–42
2008 8–5 5–3 (MWC) Armed Forces vs. Houston, L, 28–34
2009 8–5 5–3 (MWC) Armed Forces vs. Houston, W, 47–20
2010 9–4 5–3 (MWC) Independence Bowl vs. Georgia Tech, W, 14–7
 
This thread has more utterly meaningless data being passed off as relevant than a global warming thread in off topic.
 
And at the highest level of competition we have OU's bowl history:

01/02/89 Citrus Bowl
L
Clemson 13, OU 6 Orlando, Fla. 53,571
01/01/88 Orange Bowl
L
Miami 20, OU 14 Miami, Fla. 74,760
01/01/87 Orange Bowl
W
OU 42, Arkansas 8 Miami, Fla. 57,291
01/01/86 Orange Bowl
W
OU 25, Penn State 10 Miami, Fla. 74,178
01/01/85 Orange Bowl
L
Washington 28, OU 17 Miami, Fla. 56,294
01/01/83 Fiesta Bowl
L
Arizona State 32, OU 21 Tempe, Ariz. 70,553
12/26/81 Sun Bowl
W
OU 40, Houston 14 El Paso, Texas 33,816
01/01/81 Orange Bowl
W
OU 18, Florida State 17 Miami, Fla. 71,043
01/01/80 Orange Bowl
W
OU 24, Florida State 7 Miami, Fla. 66,714
01/01/79 Orange Bowl
W
OU 31, Nebraska 24 Miami, Fla. 66,635
01/01/78 Orange Bowl
L
Arkansas 31, OU 6 Miami, Fla. 69,500
12/25/76 Fiesta Bowl
W
OU 41, Wyoming 7 Tucson, Ariz. 46,315
01/01/76 Orange Bowl
W
OU 14, Michigan 6 Miami, Fla. 80,307
12/31/72 Sugar Bowl
W
OU 14, Penn State 0 New Orleans, La. 72,316
01/01/72 Sugar Bowl
W
OU 40, Auburn 22 New Orleans, La. 84,031

Between Navy, Air Force, and Oklahoma we have two different eras and two different levels of competition, and the 4 week prep time issue doesn't correlate well at all, huh?
Let's look at ours after 10 vs 3 years. Like stinger said in ref to proven...bullshit.

P.S. andrew---you may be right on!
 
GoldZ said:
Between Navy, Air Force, and Oklahoma we have two different eras and two different levels of competition, and the 4 week prep time issue doesn't correlate well at all, huh?
Let's look at ours after 10 vs 3 years. Like stinger said in ref to proven...bullshit.

P.S. andrew---you may be right on!
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I bet they have averaged a lot more points during the year compared to those low scores at the bowls after adjusting for opponents' defenses.

You do know these numbers you are posting are just meaningless by themselves without adjusting?
 
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