Odds of future wins...

stinger78

stinger78

Jacket by the grace of God.
Joined
Apr 18, 2008
Messages
12,542
What are yours?

My thoughts are as follows:

UVA - 65% chance of a win
FSU - 55% chance of a win (35% chance of winning these 2)
UNC - 55% chance of a win (20% chance of winning these 3)
Miami - 60% chance of a win (12% chance of winning all 4 remaining ACC games)

UGAG - 25% chance of a win (3% chance of winning out)

That's just 4 very tough games back to back in November. Very small chance of winning out in conference, and that's about the only way we get to ACC CG. I'd say we're odds on for Music City or Champs, with a possibility for the Gator. I doubt the CFA/Peach would take us if there is another viable team, which there will be. Gator may, knowing thyat we'll be well represented there this year when most everyone thought we may not even go bowling.
 
I think you're giving UVA, Thug U and even UGA too much credit. I'm not sold on Free Shoes yet either, but after watching our game this weekend, I'm not entirely sold on us.
 
I don't understand why you guys think we're going to take a nose-dive the end of the season. Sure, you might say that we've played our easier games already, but you weren't saying that at the beginning of the season. Nobody on here was saying we'd be 6-1 after Clemson, nobody. I'm sticking with my prediction that we'll go undefeated at home this year. The North Carolina game is a ?
 
I don't expect anything worse than 3-2. Come on guys, trust in CPJ, he can even win when the team is missing they key guys and even when the team is playing bad. He is a GREAT coach.

And the ACC teams we are playing? None of them has played BC or GT, which have been the best teams in the ACC in the last couple of years.

Do I even have to mention that out two best QBs are finally healthy and getting practice now? And remember, practice is what makes or breaks this offense.
 
GTHooligan said:
I don't understand why you guys think we're going to take a nose-dive the end of the season. Sure, you might say that we've played our easier games already, but you weren't saying that at the beginning of the season. Nobody on here was saying we'd be 6-1 after Clemson, nobody. I'm sticking with my prediction that we'll go undefeated at home this year. The North Carolina game is a ?
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I think there is a huge pessimism remaining from the Gailey era on the GT community. Not too much blame on the community.

Well, not to forget the fact that most of us are cold odds-computing engineers or managers that look at worst case scenarios.
 
UVa - 75% (they are 0-2 on the road)
FSU - 80% (their defense gang tackles just like MSU)
UNC - 50% (they are a good team at home)
Miami - 75% (defense is built liek FSU, offense plays to our defensive strengths)
Uga - 30% (they have the most balanced offense we will face all year)

6.75% chance of winning out.
 
I'm being more of a realist than a pessimist. I agree with BOR about the OL, they stink. Yes, they are giving the effort but they just aren't getting it done. Don't blast me, I talk with the OL coach weekly and he agrees.

It's comforting to know that they are working hard weekly and who knows it may pay off in the next few weeks and get us that 9th or 10th win.

I predicted 9-3 at the beginning and got laughed at, I'm predicting 8 wins now and apparently I have no faith in CPJ.
 
Allen Koholic said:
I think you're giving UVA, Thug U and even UGA too much credit. I'm not sold on Free Shoes yet either, but after watching our game this weekend, I'm not entirely sold on us.
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After our OL performance this past game, I think he's giving those three plenty of credit relative to us. Tech is a reasonably good football team this year, but we're not what I'd call great. We were better in 2006. Our offense is really not good at all.

The option has definitely not clicked. I'd rather have Navy's offense.

Stinger's got us at 8.6 regular season wins, which seems about right to me.
 
I agree with stinger, fridgemover,and others...these last five are really a toss=up.

Just as we would like to get the VT game back because we gave it away on one or two plays...we won a couple by equally close margins.

Our two most dominant performaces offensively were Miss St and Duke....other than that it has been "just in time winning".

Can we keep doing it? Absolutely...I like PJ's chances in a chess match. There is just not a game left that is a guaranteed victory...they are all hard.
 
cyptomcat said:
I think there is a huge pessimism remaining from the Gailey era on the GT community. Not too much blame on the community.

Well, not to forget the fact that most of us are cold odds-computing engineers or managers that look at worst case scenarios.
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Yes, I completely agree. It's about time for a Georgia Tech football paradigm. This means not going to the game next weekend assuming we're going to lose because we just got ranked. Not assuming we can't put together a win-streak. Not assuming we can't win on the road. I've been to every game (except Boston College) this year. Yes, we aren't the best offensive team, but we've scored enough to win. How many points has Georgia been winning by lately? College football isn't a science. We are leaving out the rejuvenated heart of this football team.
 
Seriously folks what is the reason having such pessimism in our team after all they have done. Michael Johnson said in an article earlier this year that we are the only thing that can make us lose a game remaining on our schedule. I am going to listen to the prospective #3 draft pick over a bunch of pessimistic fans. As fans we are supposed to be the positive supporting unit behind our team. We should expect to win every game. That is what champions do. Losers are the ones who sit down with their calculator and statistically determine the odds of losing/winning. If you behave like the bully's punching bag on the playground, you will end up being the bully's b****. Winners have the mindset of champions before becoming champions. Just like in golf ... you have to envision a good shot before your swing or else you are going to be hooking, slicing, hitting fat, and hitting thin all day.

Stop with all this overly negative thinking. These guys deserve positive fans because they have been playing like champions out there.
 
refrigeratormover said:
I predicted 9-3 at the beginning and got laughed at, I'm predicting 8 wins now and apparently I have no faith in CPJ.
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I also predicted 9 wins start of the season, so I didn't laugh at you.

I had faith in CPJ from the start of the season, but now I also have faith in our offense after they had winning drives in the 4th quarter against strong defenses of BC and CU even though they struggled during the game. That's something very different from previous years. In Chailey games, we would get most big wins by defending established leads.

I think this team has given us enough to expect 3-2.

None of this matters, only Saturdays matter!
 
refrigeratormover said:
I predict 2-3 to finish up the season with 8 wins and a bid to the Congressional Bowl against Navy.
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Don't know about the bowl bid, but 2-3 seems about right. We have been winning with smoke and mirrors and it's bound to catch up with us as we go against not only tougher teams, but teams that have "played" their way into respectability. Injuries are a big concern for us too. We aren't very deep yet.
 
Yukonwreck said:
Don't know about the bowl bid, but 2-3 seems about right. We have been winning with smoke and mirrors and it's bound to catch up with us as we go against not only tougher teams, but teams that have "played" their way into respectability. Injuries are a big concern for us too. We aren't very deep yet.
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Duke >= UVa
@VT > @UNC
@BC > FSU
@Clemson >= Miami

We have played our way into respectability. We have won by playing a full 60 minutes. We have an erratic big play offense and a great defense.

Don't let the team names fool you. We have played the tougher half of our ACC schedule. We are 3-1 (2-1 on the road).

Nesbitt looked as good against Clemson as he did against VT. He isn't starting over in his learning curve. A few better option reads and better timing on his game passes and we will be good. Our Oline will hopefully pull it back together like they did against MSU. If that happens, we are the best team in the ACC.
 
Michael Johnson said in an article earlier this year that we are the only thing that can make us lose a game remaining on our schedule.
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And it almost came true on Saturday!

lol.

We have to score more than 14 points on offense the rest of the season to have a prayer of going to the ACCCG, or to have a prayer vs UGA, both of which mean winning out.

Yall are going to hate me saying it, but our offensive performance this past game was nothing if not Chanesque.

14 points on O. How many 3 and outs?
 
Come on Beej, Chanesque? Dwyer had over 100 yards.

How many times did Chan come back in the 4th half to score a go-ahead TD? 7 plays for 60 yards!
 
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