Odds of future wins...

If Chanesque was 14 points on O, we would have beaten U[sic]GA
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What year?

Come on Beej, Chanesque? Dwyer had over 100 yards.
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Tashard averaged over 100 yards how many times?

The Garner Webb game was Chanesque too.


Bold prediction: The next game we play this year, where our O doesn't produce at least 17 points, we lose. Any takers?
 
If you look at everyone's percentages, they all put us at about 8.5 wins, so 8 or 9 wins is reasonable.
 
beej67 said:
What year?
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2006. I honestly think that team had national title talent and potential. I don't need to tell you about the types of players we had on that team(Calvin, Tashard, Wheeler, etc). The Notre Dame game was INCREDIBLY winnable(take your pick of reasons we lost it), and if we had won that we would have been top 10 going into the Clemson game. We got destroyed in that game, but Reggie hurt himself before it and tried to play anyway. We then proceeded to lose to U[sic]GA and Wake, both of which could have been won with any respectable offensive performance(offense generating more points than D in U[sic]GA, offense getting a single touchdown against Wake). That puts us, assuming the Clemson game was still a loss(to me it would have been a tossup without Reggie being hurt), at 12-1 and ACC champions.
 
No team with Reggie Ball at QB is a national title contender.
 
beej67 said:
...snip....

Bold prediction: The next game we play this year, where our O doesn't produce at least 17 points, we lose. Any takers?
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You could be proven wrong this weekend! I'm not willing to put money on it, but I can definitely see a scenario where we hold UVA under 14 points.
 
beej67 said:
And it almost came true on Saturday!

lol.

We have to score more than 14 points on offense the rest of the season to have a prayer of going to the ACCCG, or to have a prayer vs UGA, both of which mean winning out.

Yall are going to hate me saying it, but our offensive performance this past game was nothing if not Chanesque.

14 points on O. How many 3 and outs?
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No, a Chanesque performance would not have included a game winning TD in the 4th quarter. We all knew this offense was not going to click this year. Are you just now figuring that out? The difference is this year's team has been doing what it takes to win whether it's on offense or defense.
 
The difference is this year's team has been doing what it takes to win whether it's on offense or defense.
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Folks said exactly that after our win over UNC in 2006.


I'm much happier with our offense today than back then, because our offense today has personality. It has a reason to watch. It's entertaining. But I'd be happier still with Navy's offense, because it's got everything we've got, plus it works..
 
beej67 said:
In 2006 UGA scored 17 points.

...hence my point, about how our offense has to score at least 17 in every game going forward or we'll lose.
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In 2006 U[sic]GA scored 15 points, seven of them off of a fumble return for a TD. Our offense put up a big 12, and 3 of those came from a -5 yard scoring drive thanks to a turnover from our defense. Never underestimate the offensive deficiency of that team starting with the Clemson game. It was absolutely pitiful, and it was a damn shame given the quality overall of our defense and the fact that we had the ACC's leading rusher and the best receiver in the nation.

I see your point about needing to score 17 a game this year to win, but starting with the Clemson game, the '06 was less likely than not to put up 14 points a game, and had almost zero chance without major help from the D.
 
No team wins 12 blow-out games. Too much parity, too much luck involved. The top teams win most of their games because they prepare well and make adjustments during the game. Some of that is coaching and some of it is having playmakers on the field. It's silly to predict how we will do next week based on how many 3-and-outs we had or how many points we scored last week. That was a crazy environment to play in on Saturday with tremendous emotion against us. Good coaching and good playmakers won the game and will be called on again the rest of the season. I like our chances.
 
stinger78 said:
What are yours?

My thoughts are as follows:

UVA - 65% chance of a win
FSU - 55% chance of a win (35% chance of winning these 2)
UNC - 55% chance of a win (20% chance of winning these 3)
Miami - 60% chance of a win (12% chance of winning all 4 remaining ACC games)

UGAG - 25% chance of a win (3% chance of winning out)

That's just 4 very tough games back to back in November. Very small chance of winning out in conference, and that's about the only way we get to ACC CG. I'd say we're odds on for Music City or Champs, with a possibility for the Gator. I doubt the CFA/Peach would take us if there is another viable team, which there will be. Gator may, knowing thyat we'll be well represented there this year when most everyone thought we may not even go bowling.
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I like these odds, stinger. And with our OL as bad as it is, I would be more than glad to get them.
 
beej67 said:
Folks said exactly that after our win over UNC in 2006.


I'm much happier with our offense today than back then, because our offense today has personality. It has a reason to watch. It's entertaining. But I'd be happier still with Navy's offense, because it's got everything we've got, plus it works..
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To tell the truth, I don't remember that from 2006. Most of what I remember is excuses for why we didn't score more. Today, we know our offense isn't working like it's designed, but it's still capable of the big strike when it's needed. Back then, I don't know of anyone who felt we had a chance to win once we got behind in the 4th quarter. Not saying it never happened, just that's how I felt.
 
stinger78 said:
What are yours?

My thoughts are as follows:

UVA - 65% chance of a win
FSU - 55% chance of a win (35% chance of winning these 2)
UNC - 55% chance of a win (20% chance of winning these 3)
Miami - 60% chance of a win (12% chance of winning all 4 remaining ACC games)

UGAG - 25% chance of a win (3% chance of winning out)
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So you think the probability of each win is independent of the other?
 
this would have been cute if we did this pre-season

right now we'd be at the 1.5%

geeks and their math....gonna be so mad when the odds are defied.
 
this would have been cute if we did this pre-season

right now we'd be at the 1.5%
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We did do this preseason, and 1.5% was about the chance of winning out in ACC play.
 
Well...not to put a damper on things, but we have a 0% chance of actually winning all the ACC games, so those predictions were all right.... It makes sense though. If you gave us a 50% chance of winning in each game, the odds of winning out would be .4%. Anyone who gave us a 1.5% chance of winning out in the ACC was being ridiculously optimistic.
 
GTBlazer said:
this would have been cute if we did this pre-season

right now we'd be at the 1.5%

geeks and their math....gonna be so mad when the odds are defied.
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How can the odds be defied if we already lost?

EDIT: Posted while the above post was being posted. I hit post second.
 
gatorbuzz said:
So you think the probability of each win is independent of the other?
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Well, you do have a point. From our vantage point today they are. However, with each win, they rise. How would you set it up?
 
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