Prediction Contest Helpful Hints.....

gtfan

gtfan

Sith Lord
Staff member
Joined
Oct 15, 2001
Messages
1,185
If you look at the top 3 from last year (here is the link of the stats and scroll to the right to see the bowl and odds stats) http://www.stingtalk.com/predictions/weekly.html

Dore-Dawg 248
2ndgenjacket 247
GT Adamni 244

You can see the race was VERY tight! This was after 133 games over 16 weeks and the bowls. The winner won with a 62.1% accuracy rating.

Keep in mind that if you pick with the favored team to win and not cover you are guaranteed at least 1pt.

Staying away from 0 pts is the key. If you received 14pts (out of 21) every week you would have won the contest.

For those who participated I think all were pleased but for the humbling experience of understanding how difficult it can be to pick against the spread.

if you have any ?'s just email me
gtfan@stingtalk.com
 
It is actually the opening line. I have a few different sites that I look at but the spread is usually w/in .5 on all the sites.

It really does not matter whether the line starts at say 4 then closes to 3.

Because even if the line is skewed either High or Low the advantage is for everyone since everyone uses the same line.

I imagine the "better" pickers can spot a favorable line and possilby take more advantage of it.

But I will say that every line that I used was available on SOME online gambling site when it was posted on the contest.

If you look at the stats (on the prediction site) you will see the HUGE deviation from week to week. As the post indicates the winner had ~62%. I think most were surprised at how difficult it was to pick against the spread. And that 62% was giving 1/3 credit for JUST picking the winner of the game which is something Vegas does not do.

I would be interested to hear if the top finishers have any particular strategies.
 
I'm curious about the spread data that is used in the Prediction Contest.

Which betting "line" is used (USA Today, AJC, some casino, etc... )?

Also, Since spreads adjust throughout the week as bets are placed, the final spread is usually the most accurate. So is the Prediction Contest spread based on the first one released on Monday, the spread Saturday prior to game time, or do the players in the contest "lock-in" to a spread at the time they make a prediction?

I'm looking forward to playing this year. Watch out Dore-Dawg, you're going down bigtime!

Thanks.
 
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