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- Oct 18, 2009
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In last week's thread the predictor went 9-6 ATS, 13-3 ML, and correctly predicted 2 upsets (Vanderbilt and Nebraska). Earlier today I found an enormous error in the code introduced over the offseason and corrected it, so you can expect all of these picks to be awful, I guess!
The prediction prior to me fixing the error was 34-15 good guys. That's what prompted me to look for an error in the first place.
Some other big games:
The broken prediction had Buffalo as well. I want to believe!
That is ugly.
This weekend is going to be a slow one.
Warning, Hoke stats still present and in healthy force.
Yeah I think I broke it.
Predictor said:TULN vs GT(-28.5)
Week 2 of 2015
TULN - Offense
Yardage: 327 ypg
Performance: -8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 11
Efficiency: 28 (lower is better)
Performance: -72 (higher is better)
TULN - Defense
Yardage: 428 ypg allowed
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
Scoring: 30
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 5 (higher is better)
GT - Offense
Yardage: 481 ypg
Performance: 46 (higher is better)
Scoring: 41
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
GT - Defense
Yardage: 340 ypg allowed
Performance: 28 (higher is better)
Scoring: 17
Efficiency: 19 (higher is better)
Performance: 51 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: TULN 5 (228 yards), GT 52 (614 yards)
TULN best case: TULN 8 (300 yards), GT 39 (485 yards)
GT best case: TULN 4 (193 yards), GT 61 (710 yards)
TULN talent: 2861
GT talent: 5051
TULN talent of schedule: 3763
GT talent of schedule: 7416
Suggested talent adjustment: 29% towards GT best case
Final: TULN 5 (218 yards), GT 54 (642 yards)
The prediction prior to me fixing the error was 34-15 good guys. That's what prompted me to look for an error in the first place.
Some other big games:
Predictor said:BUFF vs PSU(-21)
Week 2 of 2015
BUFF - Offense
Yardage: 393 ypg
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 35
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 24 (higher is better)
BUFF - Defense
Yardage: 314 ypg allowed
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: -22 (higher is better)
PSU - Offense
Yardage: 265 ypg
Performance: -30 (higher is better)
Scoring: 14
Efficiency: 18 (lower is better)
Performance: -14 (higher is better)
PSU - Defense
Yardage: 256 ypg allowed
Performance: 40 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: BUFF 21 (218 yards), PSU 13 (162 yards)
BUFF best case: BUFF 25 (259 yards), PSU 10 (111 yards)
PSU best case: BUFF 15 (156 yards), PSU 15 (217 yards)
BUFF talent: 1506
PSU talent: 6984
BUFF talent of schedule: 1612
PSU talent of schedule: 6056
Suggested talent adjustment: 49% towards PSU best case
Final: BUFF 18 (187 yards), PSU 14 (189 yards)
The broken prediction had Buffalo as well. I want to believe!
Predictor said:LSU vs MSST(+4.5)
Week 2 of 2015
LSU - Offense
Yardage: 299 ypg
Performance: -17 (higher is better)
Scoring: 10
Efficiency: 27 (lower is better)
Performance: -47 (higher is better)
LSU - Defense
Yardage: 262 ypg allowed
Performance: 71 (higher is better)
Scoring: 12
Efficiency: 20 (higher is better)
Performance: 59 (higher is better)
MSST - Offense
Yardage: 477 ypg
Performance: 31 (higher is better)
Scoring: 32
Efficiency: 14 (lower is better)
Performance: -1 (higher is better)
MSST - Defense
Yardage: 393 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 21 (higher is better)
Performance: 46 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: LSU 7 (289 yards), MSST 8 (225 yards)
LSU best case: LSU 10 (319 yards), MSST 4 (118 yards)
MSST best case: LSU 5 (236 yards), MSST 16 (338 yards)
LSU talent: 11816
MSST talent: 7015
LSU talent of schedule: 10268
MSST talent of schedule: 6577
Suggested talent adjustment: 42% towards LSU best case
Final: LSU 8 (302 yards), MSST 6 (179 yards)
That is ugly.
Predictor said:WAKE vs SYR(-4.5)
Week 2 of 2015
WAKE - Offense
Yardage: 303 ypg
Performance: -7 (higher is better)
Scoring: 18
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -5 (higher is better)
WAKE - Defense
Yardage: 352 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 14 (higher is better)
Performance: 7 (higher is better)
SYR - Offense
Yardage: 252 ypg
Performance: -27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 15
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -12 (higher is better)
SYR - Defense
Yardage: 278 ypg allowed
Performance: 46 (higher is better)
Scoring: 20
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: WAKE 12 (174 yards), SYR 13 (233 yards)
WAKE best case: WAKE 18 (257 yards), SYR 10 (179 yards)
SYR best case: WAKE 9 (127 yards), SYR 15 (254 yards)
WAKE talent: 4432
SYR talent: 4185
WAKE talent of schedule: 5517
SYR talent of schedule: 5111
Suggested talent adjustment: 3% towards WAKE best case
Final: WAKE 12 (177 yards), SYR 13 (231 yards)
This weekend is going to be a slow one.
Predictor said:ORST vs MICH(-16.5)
Week 2 of 2015
ORST - Offense
Yardage: 392 ypg
Performance: -2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 16 (lower is better)
Performance: -17 (higher is better)
ORST - Defense
Yardage: 443 ypg allowed
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Scoring: 34
Efficiency: 12 (higher is better)
Performance: -6 (higher is better)
MICH - Offense
Yardage: 343 ypg
Performance: -9 (higher is better)
Scoring: 19
Efficiency: 17 (lower is better)
Performance: -22 (higher is better)
MICH - Defense
Yardage: 321 ypg allowed
Performance: 23 (higher is better)
Scoring: 23
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 0 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: ORST 23 (287 yards), MICH 22 (348 yards)
ORST best case: ORST 25 (316 yards), MICH 19 (296 yards)
MICH best case: ORST 21 (240 yards), MICH 25 (389 yards)
ORST talent: 5207
MICH talent: 9049
ORST talent of schedule: 6443
MICH talent of schedule: 6815
Suggested talent adjustment: 21% towards MICH best case
Final: ORST 22 (277 yards), MICH 23 (356 yards)
Warning, Hoke stats still present and in healthy force.
Predictor said:BSU vs BYU(+2.5)
Week 2 of 2015
BSU - Offense
Yardage: 474 ypg
Performance: 28 (higher is better)
Scoring: 44
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 36 (higher is better)
BSU - Defense
Yardage: 327 ypg allowed
Performance: 27 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 13 (higher is better)
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
BYU - Offense
Yardage: 466 ypg
Performance: 8 (higher is better)
Scoring: 39
Efficiency: 11 (lower is better)
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
BYU - Defense
Yardage: 382 ypg allowed
Performance: 11 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 15 (higher is better)
Performance: 24 (higher is better)
Prediction:
Pure statistical: BSU 40 (492 yards), BYU 25 (325 yards)
BSU best case: BSU 49 (582 yards), BYU 21 (260 yards)
BYU best case: BSU 31 (421 yards), BYU 29 (367 yards)
BSU talent: 4527
BYU talent: 4102
BSU talent of schedule: 3599
BYU talent of schedule: 4163
Suggested talent adjustment: 0% towards BYU best case
Final: BSU 40 (492 yards), BYU 25 (326 yards)
Yeah I think I broke it.
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