Predictor Week 8

johncu said:
Saw that after I posted. Maybe we'll finish the season like Arkansas did last year? Rattle off a few wins and end up 6-6 almost getting into the Top 25?
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Honestly, it could happen. Our deficiencies in execution are definitely fixable. Our deficiencies in depth, perhaps less so.
 
johncu said:
I just had a thought...

Are we the new Arkansas? Overrated as hell, loses almost every game in conference, but computers love us and we get credit for losing to good teams.
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This can happen when a team plays a meat grinder of a schedule like the ACC Coastal. Are the teams that beat us ranked? Do they pass the eye test? You have described our situation perfectly where you have a talented team without a good record to show for it. In other words, all of our losses have been quality losses. A little better game control and we'd have some quality wins.
 
coit said:
No because if we won those games those teams wouldn't be ranked.
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Not so fast my friend. Look at players like Jeremy Cash and Marquise Williams. They certainly pass the eye test and will be playing on Sundays. So far, this year has been the year of ACC strength and ACC speed. If I had to
pick who's in the CFP, right now my four would be:

1. Clemson
2. FSU
3. Duke
4. Utah

I may have to readjust Monday.
 
TIA, what does your predictor think of the UTAH/USC game this weekend? UTAH is GETTING 3.5
 
Predictor said:
UTAH vs USC
Week 8 of 2015

UTAH - Offense
Yardage: 410 ypg
Performance: 2 (higher is better)
Scoring: 39
Efficiency: 10 (lower is better)
Performance: 22 (higher is better)
UTAH - Defense
Yardage: 361 ypg allowed
Performance: 13 (higher is better)
Scoring: 20
Efficiency: 18 (higher is better)
Performance: 43 (higher is better)

USC - Offense
Yardage: 483 ypg
Performance: 26 (higher is better)
Scoring: 35
Efficiency: 13 (lower is better)
Performance: 8 (higher is better)
USC - Defense
Yardage: 407 ypg allowed
Performance: 6 (higher is better)
Scoring: 24
Efficiency: 16 (higher is better)
Performance: 33 (higher is better)

Prediction:

Pure statistical: UTAH 25 (403 yards), USC 24 (428 yards)
UTAH best case: UTAH 32 (418 yards), USC 19 (366 yards)
USC best case: UTAH 20 (389 yards), USC 29 (521 yards)

UTAH talent: 5955
USC talent: 11961
UTAH talent of schedule: 5745
USC talent of schedule: 7302

Suggested talent adjustment: 75% towards USC best case
Final: UTAH 21 (392 yards), USC 28 (499 yards)
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Statistically, it likes Utah by a point. USC then gets 8 points on talent alone.

Not sure I'd touch that line, myself, but if I did, I'd probably bet on Utah. That is why you can expect USC to win, because I'm so very bad at this you could easily be convinced I have a real life magical curse.
 
Statistically, it likes Utah by a point. USC then gets 8 points on talent alone.

Not sure I'd touch that line, myself, but if I did, I'd probably bet on Utah. That is why you can expect USC to win, because I'm so very bad at this you could easily be convinced I have a real life magical curse.
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That's so odd to me. USC is more talented than everyone on their schedule and they're still 3-3. Maybe ND is more talented.
 
DressCheeseSideSeaboard said:
Not so fast my friend. Look at players like Jeremy Cash and Marquise Williams. They certainly pass the eye test and will be playing on Sundays. So far, this year has been the year of ACC strength and ACC speed. If I had to
pick who's in the CFP, right now my four would be:

1. Clemson
2. FSU
3. Duke
4. Utah

I may have to readjust Monday.
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I think Clemson and FSU are a guarantee, but I'm not so sure about Duke. They still have to play UNC and Pitt. I could see UNC beating both of them, but since UNC dropped an OOC game against a team from the weak SEC, they could get left out.

Also, Notre Dame is a wild card. They're playing a brutal ACC schedule and have a great loss to the #1 team.
 
johncu said:
I think Clemson and FSU are a guarantee, but I'm not so sure about Duke. They still have to play UNC and Pitt. I could see UNC beating both of them, but since UNC dropped an OOC game against a team from the weak SEC, they could get left out.

Also, Notre Dame is a wild card. They're playing a brutal ACC schedule and have a great loss to the #1 team.
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All excellent points. Notre Dame could replace Utah in my CFP picture.
 
Ish said:
That's so odd to me. USC is more talented than everyone on their schedule and they're still 3-3. Maybe ND is more talented.
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Admittedly, the talent mechanics of the predictor are a tad rudimentary. USC's average opponent is rated as about 20% more talented than Utah, while USC is rated as about 2 times as talented as Utah's average opponent. That's why it leans so far to USC.
 
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