Preseason Analysis and Probabilities

artesian jacket said:
Have your codes figured in the following facts:
1. Our offensive line is still not able to blow people off the ball
2. Our defensive line was decimated by graduation
3. Special teams play, to be charitable, is mediocre
4. Teams with issues on both lines and special teams rarely win 10 games much less championships.
5. Rednecks like good ol boys in south Georgia tend to know a little bit about winning football.
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You say "is" about these items like they are facts in 2009.

But they aren't. They're just your opinions. And on all three of them, in 2009, your opinion diverges from that of the only relevant good ole boy who knows a little something about winning football.

Especially on the subject of the O-line.
 
I haven't even looked at the code, but I can guarandamntee you all something. If he's got comment lines in there at all, it puts the ghetto VBA programming I've done for work to shame, and my programs have generated thousands of dollars in time savings.

#1) Does it work?
#2) Who cares about anything else?
 
beej67 said:
I haven't even looked at the code, but I can guarandamntee you all something. If he's got comment lines in there at all, it puts the ghetto VBA programming I've done for work to shame, and my programs have generated thousands of dollars in time savings.

#1) Does it work?
#2) Who cares about anything else?
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I took programming classes from both the EE school and ICS school and noticed a major difference in philosophy between them.

The EE programs were graded automatically by the computer. They ran my program against a bunch of test data and checked my answer. My grade was the percentage of test data that my program calculated a correct answer. (You did not have access to the test data before the grading run.)

The ICS class also checked if the program worked, but not as rigorously. (The EE class tried to trip us up with edge case test data to find common incorrect assumptions.) But correct results only got you a C. The rest of the grade was subjective on the elegance of the design, documentation, and maintainability. (Even if the program didn't work at all you could still pass, in theory.)

I guess it comes down to whether the program is a tool to solve a given problem just for you or an asset that may be used and maintained by others.
 
beej67 said:
I haven't even looked at the code, but I can guarandamntee you all something. If he's got comment lines in there at all, it puts the ghetto VBA programming I've done for work to shame, and my programs have generated thousands of dollars in time savings.

#1) Does it work?
#2) Who cares about anything else?
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+1

It only takes a few years in the real world to realize these are the two basic questions of corporate life. (Stipulated that "work" includes "makes money.") The only ones who care how "pretty" it is are those who have no higher objective - ie: ICS majors.
 
stinger78 said:
+1

It only takes a few years in the real world to realize these are the two basic questions of corporate life. (Stipulated that "work" includes "makes money.") The only ones who care how "pretty" it is are those who have no higher objective - ie: ICS majors.
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That depends.

In the "real world", it also doesn't work if you are the only one who understands it yet someone else will be expected to maintain it at some point.

Engineers who would sneer at a sloppily designed piece of hardware have no problem with inefficient code that is not reusable or maintainable.

If no one other than you will ever see your duct tape and bailing wire code other than you, then it has served its purpose.
 
GTKyle said:
The phrase is "I couldn't care less." You just sound like moron for saying it wrong.

Minus well leave stingtalk now.
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MINUS well leave stingtalk now?

Speaking of morons who say things wrong (yes I got the sarcasm).
 
Yukonwreck said:
It's the probability of winning the BCS championship ONCE WE ARE ALREADY IN THE GAME. It is an entirely separate event GETTING to the point where we have qualified for the game.

Scanning the week by week point spreads from Golden Tornado I would advise not using this as a betting guide. To suggest that we will be favored in all but the FSU game is not realistic.
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I guess I wasn't clear in the excel sheet because that is exactly what I meant. The line under it that says "Probability of going undefeated" multiplies the probablility of going undefeated through the ACC championship with the probability of winning the one game of the BCS championship.
 
GoldenTornado said:
I did that for the 07 UGA game.

What's your point?
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Well you answered your own question when you said this:
GoldenTornado said:
You're entitled to your opinion, of course, and I ain't claiming to be Nostradamus. :p But I can promise you those numbers didn't come out of my ass. I really doubt anyone else has wasted as much of his life doing quantitative analysis of GT, PJ and the ACC going into this season. :ugh:
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The guys who wear yellow wigs and paint their faces and chests at games, are a different breed. There's a side of me that says: "Hey, I kind of dig it, but at the same time, don't stand near me and please don't make a fool of yourself on camera for fear of embaressing the rest of us who don't want to be associated with you.":p
 
GoldenTornado said:
As long as we're handing out grades for no good reason, you get F's on today's quizzes in basic adult politeness and reading comprehension.... :laugher:

Line 3:

# ... I don't care if you can make better or more efficient version
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Amen.
 
BarrelORum said:
Dude, you came out of lurking to post this? During your time at GT did you ever paint your chest yellow and your face black, and wear a yellow wig?

Just curious.
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No but these guys get my highest respect. Especially when its 35 degrees.
 
GoldenTornado said:
You're entitled to your opinion, of course, and I ain't claiming to be Nostradamus. :p But I can promise you those numbers didn't come out of my ass. I really doubt anyone else has wasted as much of his life doing quantitative analysis of GT, PJ and the ACC going into this season. :ugh:

If you think GT is gonna go 9-3 or 10-2, then you can only be quibbling over tiny differences. The point spreads I posted set the regular-season over-under at only 9.0.

If you think we're only gonna win 7-8 regular season games this year.... well, I just don't agree and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is. ;)
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I don't doubt that your preparation is extensive. As the least knowlegeable poster relative to football and eckspecially Georgia Tech football, my opinion isn't worth that much, but thank you for allowing me to have ownership of it anyway. I have suggested here and elsewhere that we'll be 8-4 in the regular season with an added opportunity in a non-BCS bowl. I will even give an opinion (nothing scientific or mathematical) on our losses---Clempsen, FSU, Vanderbilt and Georgia. Could just as easily include Miami, UNC, or Wake. We just seem to have a traditional allotment of four losses.
I do believe Paul Johnson will get us to the point where we win consistently, win a lot of league crowns, and beat Georgia at least 50% of the time. But just not this soon. Too many years of memories of missed chances and frankly games last year such as UVA, UNC, LSU and even Gardner-Webb indicate to me we still have work to do. I hope that you are right and make tons of $$$ on us this fall. Can't wait to see what happens.
 
BarrelORum said:
The guys who wear yellow wigs and paint their faces and chests at games, are a different breed. There's a side of me that says: "Hey, I kind of dig it, but at the same time, don't stand near me and please don't make a fool of yourself on camera for fear of embaressing the rest of us who don't want to be associated with you.":p
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That's what I figured you meant. ;)

Now, I'm proud to call myself a geek. As GTRules told me at the FridgeMover's charity golf tourney on Monday, "they call us geeks and think it's an insult, but we just revel in it."

And, like PJ with triple-option critics, I just think it's funny when someone with 4700 message board posts quotes my self-deprecation about nerdiness back at me. :laugher:

I joined the Yellow Guys Who Embarass BOR (henceforth YGWEBOR) in 2007 because my brother got me very drunk at the tailgate and convinced me to do it. He even called my wife, who was tailgating before the Iron Bowl, and got her to help him talk me into it.

Now, it's true I'm a geek. But my brother and wife aren't. My wife is an Alabama southern belle sorority girl who looks very cute in her "I heart my geek" tee shirt. My brother is a HS head football coach in a small south Georgia town, and he's all muscle at 6'3 220.

He met the YGWEBOR playing touch football with them at an earlier tailgate, when they first invited him to paint up with them. He mentioned at the time that they were all surprisingly athletic.

And you know what? He loved the whole experience, and he was just asking me a few weeks ago when we can do it again.

So, pun intended, I'd say you're painting with too broad a brush when it comes to the Goldfellas, excuse me, the YGWEBOR. They're one of the things that's right about GT football.

MTown is also absolutely right that you won't find too many Poindexters or Erkls voluntarily going shirtless for entire games in windy sub-40 weather.

Myself excepted, of course. :p
 
Yukonwreck said:
I don't doubt that your preparation is extensive. As the least knowlegeable poster relative to football and eckspecially Georgia Tech football, my opinion isn't worth that much, but thank you for allowing me to have ownership of it anyway. I have suggested here and elsewhere that we'll be 8-4 in the regular season with an added opportunity in a non-BCS bowl. I will even give an opinion (nothing scientific or mathematical) on our losses---Clempsen, FSU, Vanderbilt and Georgia. Could just as easily include Miami, UNC, or Wake. We just seem to have a traditional allotment of four losses.
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For the record, I wasn't trying to be condescending. I just felt that you were kind of dismissive of my own opinions!

You may be right, we shall see. At least you are sure not to be disappointed! :biggthumpup:

My perspective comes from these facts:

1. GT was the youngest team in the country last year, yet still won 9 games and was the ACC's best team statistically from scrimmage.

2. This year GT returns 18 starters, tied for the most in the BCS leagues. PJ has never returned 18 starters before. Hell, one year at Navy he returned 5 starters and still went 8-4.

3. GT's returning starters have far more upside for improvement than anyone else's. First of all they're all sophs and juniors, so they're younger and still have more improvement to go. And second, they're only in the second year of their new systems.

4. Every program PJ has ever been associated with improved dramatically in his second season there. On offense they imrpove by an average of 50-60 yards per game, and they turn the ball over about 40% less often. That's a HUGE difference.

5. The GT coaches and GT practice watchers, including Wes Durham and former players, are all raving about how much better GT is gonna be this year than in 2008.

6. The 2009 schedule, given who we play and that we only have 6 home games, sets up very close to ideally. We'll have our best team in 2010, but the schedule will be considerably harder.

Now it's true we won 3 net close games and got wiped out by LSU. I personally don't think those things outweigh all the above factors, although I have let them dampen my enthusiasm by a game or so.
 
GoldenTornado said:
And, like PJ with triple-option critics, I just think it's funny when someone with 4700 message board posts quotes my self-deprecation about nerdiness back at me. :laugher:
:p
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I've also been posting since this board first came online 8 years ago. Not like Kyle whose been on here just over a year. What can I say, I have an addiction and its called Stingtalk. I'm like Norm on Cheers. The chair at the corner is reserved for me.
 
BOR I respected you and many of your posts but now there's nothing to say for you but LTFD.
 
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