Preseason Coaches Poll (GT #28th)

wesleyd21 said:
Tech fans need to quit being such pussies about starting a season ranked high. A lot of fans get worried:turbonoes:ashell about being ranked in the Top 25.
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Bingo. If you're a top 10 team and you lose in any fashion associated with the expectations of your ranking, you don't belong in the top 10.
 
I was at the Sun Bowl. And let's not pin the L on just one group. It was a complete bed wetting by everybody. The coaching staff didn't keep players in check to make sure they would be able to play. Special Teams was as special (ed) as they had been all season. The defense was unable to stop 4th and long when a stop was a win several times. The Utah playbook looked like something out of the Sun Belt ... an avalanche of short passes and off tackle runs. And it was still marginally effective. The offense couldn't convert when it mattered. Fail all around. (That being said, going was great. I am sold on the Sun Bowl as a great tie-in for the ACC. Tremendous local support. Scenic Drive is amazing. The food is great. And I know tons of UTEP fans so I get free booze! I even spoke to the Sun Bowl director at ELP.)

The other thing the Sun D'oh sold me on is that UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE, CPJ cannot reliably win games against teams with a pulse if they have more than a week to prepare. The sheer relentless validation of what shouldn't matter has converted me from skeptic to believer. Just look at last year's results ....

Teams with more than 1 week to prepare:
Western Carolina (W, 63-21)
NC State (W, 45-35 ... NCST with 14 pts in the last 60 seconds)
Virginia (L, 21-24)
Virginia Tech (L, 26-37)
Utah (L, 27-30)

They were 1-3 against FBS against teams with more than a week. If you go back to previous seasons -- you find similar at or below .500 horror.

I'm not advocating firing CPJ or anything ... but the following REALLY needs to start happening pronto:
1) Win the !#$^!#$^!#$EYT BOWL GAME. Any bowl. Against any one. WIN IT.
2) Beat U(sic)GA. 1-3 makes me a sad panda.
3) Recruit better. Chan's best class still easily bests PJ's best. The 2009 team was carried in large part by Chan's best players.
4) Beat teams who have had time to prepare. I don't want to believe ... but dammit the numbers have made me believe.
 
facepalm.jpg
 
georgia_tech_swagger said:
I was at the Sun Bowl. And let's not pin the L on just one group. It was a complete bed wetting by everybody. The coaching staff didn't keep players in check to make sure they would be able to play. Special Teams was as special (ed) as they had been all season. The defense was unable to stop 4th and long when a stop was a win several times. The Utah playbook looked like something out of the Sun Belt ... an avalanche of short passes and off tackle runs. And it was still marginally effective. The offense couldn't convert when it mattered. Fail all around. (That being said, going was great. I am sold on the Sun Bowl as a great tie-in for the ACC. Tremendous local support. Scenic Drive is amazing. The food is great. And I know tons of UTEP fans so I get free booze! I even spoke to the Sun Bowl director at ELP.)

The other thing the Sun D'oh sold me on is that UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE, CPJ cannot reliably win games against teams with a pulse if they have more than a week to prepare. The sheer relentless validation of what shouldn't matter has converted me from skeptic to believer. Just look at last year's results ....

Teams with more than 1 week to prepare:
Western Carolina (W, 63-21)
NC State (W, 45-35 ... NCST with 14 pts in the last 60 seconds)
Virginia (L, 21-24)
Virginia Tech (L, 26-37)
Utah (L, 27-30)

They were 1-3 against FBS against teams with more than a week. If you go back to previous seasons -- you find similar at or below .500 horror.

I'm not advocating firing CPJ or anything ... but the following REALLY needs to start happening pronto:
1) Win the !#$^!#$^!#$EYT BOWL GAME. Any bowl. Against any one. WIN IT.
2) Beat U(sic)GA. 1-3 makes me a sad panda.
3) Recruit better. Chan's best class still easily bests PJ's best. The 2009 team was carried in large part by Chan's best players.
4) Beat teams who have had time to prepare. I don't want to believe ... but dammit the numbers have made me believe.
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So, if I have this right, your argument is that our kickers are more likely to miss field goals and--to go back to last year--our punt returners are more likely to fumble punts when teams have more than a week to prepare. And that's CPJ's fault. OK.
 
AE 87 said:
So, if I have this right, your argument is that our kickers are more likely to miss field goals and--to go back to last year--our punt returners are more likely to fumble punts when teams have more than a week to prepare. And that's CPJ's fault. OK.
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You got him all wrong, AE. It's the numbers. The numbers made believe.

The numbers.
 
GTLiebs said:
I bet all of Chan's other classes easily lose to all of PJ's other classes.
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THIS. Everybody harps on that '07 class and forgets how many big names that made the class as big as it was just completely washed out and had ZERO impact on the field. Also, '07 was a massive anomoly for us recruiting-wise. Chan didn't do anything like that previously. Last but not least, you can't really credit Chan with that class, you have to credit the recruiting coordinator Giff Smith. He had 10 times more to do with landing that class than Gailey.
 
what scares me more than the 1 week is the idea that the acc just sucks against decent competition.
 
ThisIsAtlanta said:
You got him all wrong, AE. It's the numbers. The numbers made believe.

The numbers.
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(FCS removed)

2011: NC State (W, 45-35 ... NCST with 14 pts in the last 60 seconds)
2011: Virginia (L, 21-24)
2011: Virginia Tech (L, 26-37)
2011: Utah (L, 27-30)
2010: MTSU (W, 42-14)
2010: North Carolina (W, 30-24) <-- Highest quality ACC win listed here, and it was an ugly squeaker and the only win against a bowl opponent that year
2010: NC State (W, 45-28)
2010: Miami (L, 17-33)
2010: Virginia Tech (L, 21-28)
2010: Georgia (L, 34-42)
2010: Air Force (L, 7-14)
2009: Iowa (L, 14-24)
2008: North Carolina (L, 7-28)
2008: Georgia (W, 45-42) <-- Highest quality win overall listed here
2008: LSU (L, 3-38)

2008: 1-2
2009: 0-1
2010: 3-4
2011: 1-3
Total: 5-10 (.333)

Overall record excluding the above games: 29-9 (.763)

Tech went to the Orange Bowl the year nobody had extra time to prepare during the regular season except the FCS kickoff cupcake. Interesting on the scheduling front, 6 teams magically got extra time the following season. Wonder how THAT happened? In case you weren't already tin foil hat enough regarding Swofford and the NC mafia ... NC State got extra time every time they've played CPJ, UNC and VT get extra time 50% of the time. CCCI U(sic)GA also gets extra time 50% of the time. FSU, BC, Duke, WF, BC, UMD, Clemson, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Kansas never got extra time. Those are combined to manage just two wins against CPJ (1 Kansas, 1 Clemson).
 
Extra time makes everybody some what better nomatter the opponent. I think it helps a little more against us just because the nature of what we do is so different.

You can't say our offense is difficult to prepare for in 3 days out of one side of your mouth and say extra time doesn't matter out of the other.
 
At the risk of extending this old discussion, I think extra time helps when we are not able to pass effectively, because our opponents can focus on our running game. They can contain the offense if we do what they expect. If we could turn their preparation upside down by completing some passes, the advantage would disappear. This is probably true of any team that is effectively one dimensional.
 
jacket67 said:
At the risk of extending this old discussion, I think extra time helps when we are not able to pass effectively, because our opponents can focus on our running game. They can contain the offense if we do what they expect. If we could turn their preparation upside down by completing some passes, the advantage would disappear. This is probably true of any team that is effectively one dimensional.
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I am hopeful of this same thing. Navy had some good offensive production in bowl games, we have not.

Adding new wrinkles before a bowl game in the running game is pretty difficult. It generally is what it is. But add new passing that works off that running game can be devastating.

I am also very hopeful we have a passer with Lee or Thomas. If not, I'd be ready to move on from PJ's offense.
 
swagger, we have compiled and discussed all that data before, here you go:

(if you click on the google doc link, it has year by year look at the data, if you click on the tabs, it has game by game look at the data)

cyptomcat said:
To summarize the different stats presented, with extra time against Tech in the period of 2008-2011 BCS games:

1. GT offense does 11% worse in total offense (total yards) after adjusting for opponents' defense.
2. GT offense does 9% worse in yards per play after adjusting for opponents' defense.
3. GT win-loss record is worse. (23-8 vs. 4-11)
3a. GT win-loss record is worse when GT is favored to win. (18-3 vs. 2-6)
3b. GT win-loss record is worse when GT is not favored to win. (4-6 vs. 2-5)
4. GT win-loss record is worse against the spread. (18-11 vs. 5-9)
5. GT scoring differential is worse after adjusting for the Vegas spread differential. (doing 3.39 points better than the line vs. doing 7.66 points worse than the line)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ar8cqnkh36RRdENBQk1fRTYyRDFIVTdOa1Q0cXNrbGc&gid=3
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ae87 had a good point about the adjustments above. The adjustments are done for the performance of the defense for the whole season, and I believe he suggested doing it with home/away performance of the defense. I haven't had time to do that.
 
cyptomcat said:
swagger, we have compiled and discussed all that data before, here you go:

(if you click on the google doc link, it has year by year look at the data, if you click on the tabs, it has game by game look at the data)



ae87 had a good point about the adjustments above. The adjustments are done for the performance of the defense for the whole season, and I believe he suggested doing it with home/away performance of the defense. I haven't had time to do that.
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Fine work. :biggthumpup:

You and your stupid numbers -- haven't you heard you shouldn't believe in numbers? We should all just ignore the mountain of evidence and pull a Leslie. Move along, nothing to see here, move along.
 
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