Recruiting: CPJ vs CCG

[coit]

It doesn’t fit your narrative. That’s why it’s BS to you. You’d rather evaluate recruiting based on stars, which is like saying if I buy CD’s only on the Rolling Stone 100 list, then I have good taste in music.

How a player performs in college is the ONLY way to evaluate recruiting. Some say NFL draftees, but that only measures how good you recruit for the next level - not your own. I don’t care how well the Broncos do with Thomas only how he benefitted us. Stephen Hill got drafted and paid by the NFL, but Orwin Smith did at least as much as a receiver and never made a practice squad.

I like CPJ, but he isn’t close in the recruiting department. He’s a dick, and if Gailey could have been half the dick as CPJ, he would have retired here n

I don’t have a narrative here. I was just crunching the numbers. I’ve been asking all day for someone to explain the recruiting scores but no one has done it. And I’ve since posted additional information that shows that CCG may have had better recruits. I guess you didn’t see that.

 

[originalwombat]

I thought that was how you evaluated whether the staff could "coach 'em up" or not?

If you want try to measure that one, knock yourself out. I don’t put much stock in coaching guys up. It happens, but all-conference guys are already pretty damn good before the coaches hand them a playbook.

 

[coit]

So then post the number of 1st and 2nd team all-acc guys recruited by Gailey and Johnson. If there is no narrative, then grow a pair and post a relevant stat besides the one that you naively think makes your point.

öööö off asshole. You want the data, you get it yourself. As if you would even know how to do it.

 

[18in32]

If you want try to measure that one, knock yourself out. I don’t put much stock in coaching guys up. It happens, but all-conference guys are already pretty damn good before the coaches hand them a playbook.

That's bizarre. There are countless examples of players who were unheralded as recruits but who ended up being all-conference performers. Sean Bedford comes to mind right off the bat.

Whatever there is about "coaching them up" that makes you think it's unmeasurable, applies also to recruiting. Ain't none of it measurable, on that view.

 

[JRJacket]

Also, CCG developed players.

Reggie Ball says hello

 

[coit]

I've updated the OP text with the following observations, and the spreadsheet has the updated pivot data...

EDIT 9/25 AM: I've added an additional pivot table to the data that shows the average for each coach by position. This data uses the recruit's rank by position in their class, which would remove any year over year bias or inflation in the results. By this measure, CCG clearly outrecruits CPJ. We all expect this on the offensive side, but it is easy to see that he fairly well recruits CPJ on the defensive side as well, with the most significant difference is in the DE position. So, by this measure, I think it is easy to understand why we have not been able to put strong defenses on the field in the past 10 years.
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Anyone that thinks I was using this data to defend CPJ is not understanding the point. I was trying to find a quick and easy measure to compare each coach's recruits. I thought comparing the scores and relative rankings of the recruits would work, but I see now that these scores don't compare well over time. The relative rankings of each player to their peers seems to be the best measure.

One other thing that might play in CPJ's defense here is that I assume that more players are being tracked and ranked now than was the case 12+ years ago. That would cause recruits' ranks to be pushed downward relative to their peers. I'm not sure if there is a good way of determining that.

 

[Akinji07]

We use "I crunched some numbers.." in the office to basically say no matter what my opinion is you will accept it because youre not going to go through those numbers.

Most sane people dont want Chan Gailey back. But they do want a team who doesn't ruin football for us before September is over. Get that shit done, I dont care what it takes.

 

[rfripp68]

I've updated the OP text with the following observations, and the spreadsheet has the updated pivot data...

EDIT 9/25 AM: I've added an additional pivot table to the data that shows the average for each coach by position. This data uses the recruit's rank by position in their class, which would remove any year over year bias or inflation in the results. By this measure, CCG clearly outrecruits CPJ. We all expect this on the offensive side, but it is easy to see that he fairly well recruits CPJ on the defensive side as well, with the most significant difference is in the DE position. So, by this measure, I think it is easy to understand why we have not been able to put strong defenses on the field in the past 10 years.
​

Anyone that thinks I was using this data to defend CPJ is not understanding the point. I was trying to find a quick and easy measure to compare each coach's recruits. I thought comparing the scores and relative rankings of the recruits would work, but I see now that these scores don't compare well over time. The relative rankings of each player to their peers seems to be the best measure.

One other thing that might play in CPJ's defense here is that I assume that more players are being tracked and ranked now than was the case 12+ years ago. That would cause recruits' ranks to be pushed downward relative to their peers. I'm not sure if there is a good way of determining that.

Been thinking this for a long time. Thank you for doing the work I was too lazy to do.

Take a look at CPJ's top 10 vs CCG's in terms of what their national ranking was...

So interestingly enough Tobias Oliver (according to the rankings) is the best player CPJ has recruited, and he was 110th. This does not take into account year to year talent fluctuations obviously, but at a big picture standpoint it's pretty telling...CCG had 6 guys better than that (again, from a national ranking standpoint).

 

[ee8384]

Does CPJ also handle recruiting for his security team? Is it compatible to Gailey?

Nice camera you got there, @coit

 

[coit]

Been thinking this for a long time. Thank you for doing the work I was too lazy to do.

Take a look at CPJ's top 10 vs CCG's in terms of what their national ranking was...

So interestingly enough Tobias Oliver (according to the rankings) is the best player CPJ has recruited, and he was 110th. This does not take into account year to year talent fluctuations obviously, but at a big picture standpoint it's pretty telling...CCG had 6 guys better than that (again, from a national ranking standpoint).

The interesting thing I see from your tables is that if you take Calvin out, the numbers really aren't that much different, especially if you think that there are more kids being tracked now than 15 years ago like I mentioned earlier. The one difference to me would be that CPJ has had more years, and therefore should have more higher ranking kids in his Top 10.

 

[gtgtgt1]

Nice camera you got there, @coit

Didnt even notice it, but this pic confirms the demographics....along with New Balance

 

[OmnipoTech]

So in the left column we have 1 success, 2 serviceable players, 2 unknowns and 5 busts. In the right we have a slew of NFL talent and 1 bust that was a kicker... Yea Paul isn't very good at this recruiting thing.

 

[coit]

So in the left column we have 1 success, 2 serviceable players, 2 unknowns and 5 busts. In the right we have a slew of NFL talent and 1 bust that was a kicker... Yea Paul isn't very good at this recruiting thing.

How many ACC championships did those CCG studs win?

 

[rfripp68]

How many ACC championships did those CCG studs win?

Well Morgan, Burnett, Dwyer, Nesbitt, and Peters won 1...but the coach was CPJ ;)

I firmly believe CPJ is a better coach than CCG hands down. However I also believe CPJ's time is coming to an end soon because he hasn't been able to recruit like CCG did.

 

[OmnipoTech]

How many ACC championships did those CCG studs win?

I never said he was good at using it.

 

[Dirty Jacket]

So, you spent a lot of time proving what most of us know. The biggest problem is the coach, not the players. Next table figure please.

 

[h-wade]

Been thinking this for a long time. Thank you for doing the work I was too lazy to do.

Take a look at CPJ's top 10 vs CCG's in terms of what their national ranking was...

So interestingly enough Tobias Oliver (according to the rankings) is the best player CPJ has recruited, and he was 110th. This does not take into account year to year talent fluctuations obviously, but at a big picture standpoint it's pretty telling...CCG had 6 guys better than that (again, from a national ranking standpoint).

Where are these rankings from? I don't see anywhere Oliver was even ranked as a 4 star let alone the 110th best player in the country. But I may have overlooked something.

 

[JelloYacketDeleted062020]

That's a BS stat in my opinion. In 2014 we had zero first-team representatives but took FSU to the wire and won the OB.

If you want to measure performance, we can measure by conference championships and Orange Bowl appearances if you want.

It should just come down to winning. Conference Winning %, and Championships. The reason recruiting matters is because you want to understand why. But that's a fools errand.

 

[rfripp68]

Where are these rankings from? I don't see anywhere Oliver was even ranked as a 4 star let alone the 110th best player in the country. But I may have overlooked something.

I had just pulled the data from @coit 's first post in the embedded google sheet. But you're right about Oliver - that's an error on his ranking. Went back to the data page that coit pulled from and looks like some lines got shifted...that 110 rating was actually for Desmond Branch so the lines shifted in row 124 on the sheet (@coit ). Michael Peterson should be down at the bottom so something got shifted when you pulled your data.

Moreover, that looks to be for his national ranking for JuCo players, so it's not the same as a regular recruit. When I fixed it and took the 2 JuCo guys out this is the result (added their actual rating and class year as well):

Result takes Oliver and Gary Brown out (his was matched w Kenderius Whitehead's 145 JuCo rating), and adds Anthony Williams and Jaylon King.

So only 2 of CPJ's recruits would have made the top 10 list for CCG's (looking at national ranking).

 

[coit]

I had just pulled the data from @coit 's first post in the embedded google sheet. But you're right about Oliver - that's an error on his ranking. Went back to the data page that coit pulled from and looks like some lines got shifted...that 110 rating was actually for Desmond Branch so the lines shifted in row 124 on the sheet (@coit ). Michael Peterson should be down at the bottom so something got shifted when you pulled your data.

Moreover, that looks to be for his national ranking for JuCo players, so it's not the same as a regular recruit. When I fixed it and took the 2 JuCo guys out this is the result (added their actual rating and class year as well):

Result takes Oliver and Gary Brown out (his was matched w Kenderius Whitehead's 145 JuCo rating), and adds Anthony Williams and Jaylon King.

So only 2 of CPJ's recruits would have made the top 10 list for CCG's (looking at national ranking).

Weird, I thought I double checked all of that. I'll review it tonight and fix it.