Recruiting is Completely Overrated

Fontana 52

Fontana 52

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On the 1990 Team, GT had several no stars, some with 2 stars, and maybe two with three stars....the result: unbeaten for 17 straight games. Guys its about direction ...Great Coaching that trickles down to the players that want to be there.

Example

Marco Coleman 1star

Jerelle Williams no star

Calvin Tiggle no star

Willie Clay 1 star

Mike Mooney 1star

Joe Siffri 1 star

Darryl Jenkins no star

Jerramiah Mclary 1star

Shawn Jones 1star

Ken Swilling 3 star

William Bell 1star

Gary St. Clair 2 stars

Emmitt Merchant 1star

Tom Covington 1star

Steffan Scotton no stars

Chris "beast" Simmons no stars

Scott Sisson 1star

Thomas Balcolm no stars

Coleman Rudolph 2stars

Tom Johnson 1star

Marlon Williams 2stars

Curley Day 1 star
 
Fontana 52 said:
On the 1990 Team, GT had several no stars, some with 2 stars, and maybe two with three stars....the result: unbeaten for 17 straight games. Guys its about direction ...Great Coaching that trickles down to the players that want to be there.

Example

Marco Coleman 1star

Jerelle Williams no star

Calvin Tiggle no star

Willie Clay 1 star

Mike Mooney 1star

Joe Siffri 1 star

Darryl Jenkins no star

Jerramiah Mclary 1star

Shawn Jones 1star

Ken Swilling 3 star

William Bell 1star

Gary St. Clair 2 stars

Emmitt Merchant 1star

Tom Covington 1star

Steffan Scotton no stars

Chris "beast" Simmons no stars

Scott Sisson 1star

Thomas Balcolm no stars

Coleman Rudolph 2stars

Tom Johnson 1star

Marlon Williams 2stars

Curley Day 1 star
Click to expand...

I love your attitude, but that was twenty years ago---light years in college recruiting and in building a major college program---that wants to win championships. Yes 1990 was a good year and a good team. But not a dominating, overpowering team. Probably not even the best team of that year, and we were exposed the following year---probably because of our recruiting.
 
Not dominating?...no touchdowns allowed in the first 18 quarters of the season...Bottom line is whether it was 20 years ago or last year... is that so much emphisis is put on the rating system today and not on character of kid....
 
This post is complete horse ****. They didn't have star ratings back then and the only recruiting publishings were super prep and Parade. The 1990 team was littered with guys who were SuperPrep All Americans and some were Parade. Other than that, they were listed by the main state newspapers like the Atlanta Journal Top 50.

Star ratings didn't come out until Border Wars started doing it in 1996 or 1997.
 
No, I agree (I think).

The stars represent potential. High School kids are usually a step away from their true potential. Few are automatic all-stars.
 
BarrelORum said:
This post is complete horse ****. They didn't have star ratings back then and the only recruiting publishings were super prep and Parade. The 1990 team was littered with guys who were SuperPrep All Americans and some were Parade. Other than that, they were listed by the main state newspapers like the Atlanta Journal Top 50.

Star ratings didn't come out until Border Wars started doing it in 1996 or 1997.
Click to expand...

thank you.
 
Fontana 52 said:
On the 1990 Team, GT had several no stars, some with 2 stars, and maybe two with three stars....the result: unbeaten for 17 straight games. Guys its about direction ...Great Coaching that trickles down to the players that want to be there.

Example

Marco Coleman 1star

Jerelle Williams no star

Calvin Tiggle no star

Willie Clay 1 star
Willie Clay was a USA Today Honorable Mention

Mike Mooney 1star

Joe Siffri 1 star
Joe Siffri was AJC Top 30, Lindy's 1st Team All South (1986)

Darryl Jenkins no star

Jerramiah Mclary 1star
Jeremiah McClary was ACJ Top 30 (1986)

Shawn Jones 1star
Shawn Jones was AJC Super 11 Sporting News Top 100, Poop Sheets Top 175.

 Ken Swilling 3 star
Ken Swilling was a Parade AA, USA Today Hon. Men., Sporting News Top 100

 William Bell 1star

Gary St. Clair 2 stars

Emmitt Merchant 1star
Emmett Merchant was Sporting News Top 100, Super Preps Top 35 in NE.

Tom Covington 1star

Steffan Scotton no stars
Stefen Scotton was USA Today Hon. Mention, Knoxville News Top 25 in TN.

Chris "beast" Simmons no stars

Scott Sisson 1star

Thomas Balcolm no stars

Coleman Rudolph 2stars
Coleman was AJC Top 30

Tom Johnson 1star

Marlon Williams 2stars
Marlon was USA Today Honorable Mention

Curley Day 1 star
Click to expand...

Gosh, not sure where to start on that one, so I started with the text in red above. You're also missing:

Bobby Rodriguez - Super Preps A.A., USA Today Hon Men.
Antonio Moore - Super Prep A.A., USA Today Hon Men., Sporting News Top 100
Woody Milam - USA Today Hon Men., Poop Sheets Top 175
John Lewis - AJC Top 35, Sporting News Top 100 Hon. Men.

And about 7 other guys from the 1988 class that were USA Today Hon. Men. or Sporting News Top 100 Hon. Men. We signed 26 in that class, and 14 were AA or Honorable Mention on a national list. That was probably one of our best recruiting classes ever.
 
We need to put the "Stars are meaningless" meme to bed: First relates stars to All-Americans, second relates stars to team wins.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ighborhood-recruiting-rankin?urn=ncaaf,137439

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ighborhood-recruiting-rankin?urn=ncaaf,137146

He's also done work that shows a similar relation between stars and high NFL Draft picks, but I think it was on his old site. The fact is that the sites now do a pretty good job of identifying talent, and the top staffs do the best job of bringing in top talent.
 
a5ehren said:
We need to put the "Stars are meaningless" meme to bed: First relates stars to All-Americans, second relates stars to team wins.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ighborhood-recruiting-rankin?urn=ncaaf,137439

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ighborhood-recruiting-rankin?urn=ncaaf,137146

He's also done work that shows a similar relation between stars and high NFL Draft picks, but I think it was on his old site. The fact is that the sites now do a pretty good job of identifying talent, and the top staffs do the best job of bringing in top talent.
Click to expand...
How many times has a guy magically gained a star or two b/c USC, Notre Dame, or Michigan showed up on his schools of interest list?

I'm not saying it's total BS...but the slope of that line from the second link, in reality, is not as steep.
 
Fontana 52 said:
On the 1990 Team, GT had several no stars, some with 2 stars, and maybe two with three stars....the result: unbeaten for 17 straight games. Guys its about direction ...Great Coaching that trickles down to the players that want to be there.

Example

Willie Clay 1 star

Ken Swilling 3star

Shawn Jones 1star

Emmitt Merchant 1star
Click to expand...

Fontana

These numbers are made up...I am not even going to bother checking all of them.

Lets just start with Ken Swilling who you claim as a 3-star. He was the #3 player in Georgia out of high school and was a Parade All-American. He was rated on everyones Top 100 players in the nation list.

Willie Clay was also a top recruit. He made 1st team All-State for Pennsylvania...and was honorable mention USA Today All-American.

Emmett Merchant was rated one of the top 100 players in the nation by The Sporting News.

Last example....Shawn Jones was rated in the AJC Super 11 for the state of Georgia....top 11 players in the state.
 
a5ehren said:
We need to put the "Stars are meaningless" meme to bed: First relates stars to All-Americans, second relates stars to team wins.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ighborhood-recruiting-rankin?urn=ncaaf,137439

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footba...ighborhood-recruiting-rankin?urn=ncaaf,137146

He's also done work that shows a similar relation between stars and high NFL Draft picks, but I think it was on his old site. The fact is that the sites now do a pretty good job of identifying talent, and the top staffs do the best job of bringing in top talent.
Click to expand...

+1 I posted this same EDSBS article on another posting here. Good relation between rankings and overall wins. But hey, why stop a ridiculous argument with facts? ;)
 
Just for kicks, here's an attempt to suss out how these players might have been ranked in the current Scout/Rivals star system based on TechPhi's info and my memory from the hype those players received back then:

Marco Coleman 2* (IIRC, he was kind of a sleeper)
Jerelle Williams ? (wasn't he a JUCO?)
Calvin Tiggle ? (same ? as Williams)
Willie Clay 4*
Mike Mooney 2*(he was kind of a sleeper)
Joe Siffri high 3* (fairly well heralded local recruit IIRC)
Darryl Jenkins 2*
Jeremiah McClary low 3*
Shawn Jones high 4*
Ken Swilling high 4*/maybe even 5*
William Bell 3* (the Miami area was a lot less scouted then)
Gary St. Clair 2*
Emmitt Merchant 4*
Tom Covington 2*
Steffan Scotton 3*
Chris Simmons 3* (IIRC there was some samll hype on Simmons as a local prospect)
Scott Sisson 2*
Thomas Balkcom 2/possibly 3*(wasn't he another Miami area guy?)
Coleman Rudolph 4*(there was some hype behind this guy out of HS)
Tom Johnson 2/maybe 3*(I seem to remember Johnson having some freakish athletic abilities- 38" vj or something)
Marlon Williams 3*/maybe 4 (he was one of those big SWD recruits we were getting back then)
Curley Day 2*
Bobby Rodriguez high 3*(there was some recruiting hype around him)
Antonio Moore 4*(don't remember him but the accolades listed are impressive)
Woody Milam 3*
John Lewis 3*

7 4 stars and possibly 10 3 stars. That would be fairly comparable to what we did with our 2007 class.
 
TechinItEasy said:
How many times has a guy magically gained a star or two b/c USC, Notre Dame, or Michigan showed up on his schools of interest list?

I'm not saying it's total BS...but the slope of that line from the second link, in reality, is not as steep.
Click to expand...


Don't know. But it isn't totally without merit for a scout to look more closely at a recruit when the top schools are looking at him.

That is, maybe the scouts looked a little closer because of the interest rather than simply assigning extra stars because of the school.
 
GTLiebs said:
But if we're leaving out facts in the argument about stars, we should also leave out the facts on some of these pages as well:

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/tech/entries/2009/02/03/some_food_for_r.html

http://cfn.scout.com/2/615853.html
http://cfn.scout.com/2/726003.html
Click to expand...


The first link asks questions and provides no answers. No more evidence is provided than elsewhere in this thread. It is just a typical list of anecdotal counter-examples. There will always be examples of low rated players who excel and high rated players who bust. Those examples prove nothing unless you can prove there is no correlation.

The second and third links are interesting, but they don't pretend to refute the long term accuracy or meaning of initial talent assessments. Again, they have just reevaluated after the fact, subjectively however. (In other words, the corrected the scatter graph to line up the classes with their actual success.)

There is no getting around raw objective correlations.

P.S.
We hear the same thing about the NFL players and draft order. Someone trots out Ryan Leaf vs. Tom Brady as evidence that draft position means nothing. But, on the whole, draft order is a pretty good predictor of performance. The scouts aren't THAT wrong THAT often. A few counter-examples does nothing to refute that fact.
 
I bet I could write an algorithm that accurately predicts the number of 'stars' a recruit is going to get based purely on who's offered him. I could probably be a 'recruiting guru' without ever leaving my office.
 
lonestarjacket said:
Don't know. But it isn't totally without merit for a scout to look more closely at a recruit when the top schools are looking at him.

That is, maybe the scouts looked a little closer because of the interest rather than simply assigning extra stars because of the school.
Click to expand...
And round and round we go ;)
 
I think the main argument some on here are making is that there are enough examples of scouts being wrong on the whole "stars" thing to question whether they are accurate measures of recruits talent. Yeah over a wide range they might come out as accurate overall, but I think they would have to get it right At Least 75% of the time for it to be valuable.

Either way I think it would be better if someone used ESPN's form of ranking recruits to find some statistical analysis. They go like 40-100 rather than 1 through 5 like the stars system.
 
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