Remaining games

THWG247 said:
I have a bad feeling their defense will give us fits but nothing about their boring and unimaginative offense scares me, shoddyheimer sucks, Lambert sucks plus we've beat him before, Chubbs is gone, their other backs are clearly a level below him
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In 2009 we weren't expecting them to just line it up and play power football against us, but they did. I would expect UGA to be overly prepared for us. Here is to Georgia Southern giving them a lot of bruises and aches and pains and chop blocks the week before
 
This season will be a success if we beat Georgia, bowl streak intact or not.
 
Opponent FPIWin% TeamRankings.Ccom
@UVA 79.4% 86.1%
VT 69.3% 75.9%
@UM 64.2% 67.5%
UGA 46.9% 59.9%
Expected Wins: 2.6 2.9

I think the FPI is probably more realistic, especially on UGA. But I think a coaching change at UM helps us way more than other offenses. So I think that puts our bowls streak at greater than 50%.
 
beej67 said:
Do we need 3 wins or 4 for bowl eligibility?
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Looks like 3, with an outside shot at getting in with 2.

Wikipedia said:
If a bowl has one or more conferences/teams unable to meet their contractual commitments and there are no available bowl-eligible teams, the open spots can be filled – by the particular bowl's sponsoring agencies – as follows:[10]
  1. Teams finishing 6-6 with one win against a team from the lower Football Championship Subdivision (FCS), regardless of whether that FCS school meets NCAA scholarship requirements. Until now, an FCS win counted only if that opponent met the scholarship requirements—specifically, that school had to award at least 90% of the FCS maximum of 63 scholarship equivalents over a two-year period. In the 2012 season, programs in four FCS conferences cannot meet the 90% requirement (56.7 equivalents)—the Ivy League, which prohibits all athletic scholarships; the Patriot League and Pioneer Football League, which do not currently award football scholarships; and the Northeast Conference, which limits football scholarships to 38 equivalents.
  2. 6-6 teams with two wins over FCS schools.
  3. Teams that finish 6-7 with loss number seven in their conference championship game (that has been eliminated by the conference championship waiver rule).
  4. 6-7 teams that normally play a 13-team schedule, such as Hawaii's home opponents. Although Hawaii normally plays a 13-game schedule, it only played 12 games this season.
  5. FCS teams who are in the final year of the two-year FBS transition process, if they have at least a 6-6 record.
  6. Finally, 5-7 teams that have a top-5 Academic Progress Rate (APR) score. This was later adjusted to allow other 5-7 teams to be selected thereafter—in order of their APR. [11]
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Here's a bowl eligibility tracker. Looks like 32 teams have qualified for the 80(!!!) slots. If you think about it logically, it's going to be hard for 80 teams to meet the required criteria, opening the door for us.

LINK
 
GTWannaBee said:
Never knew there was a rule for 5-7 teams to get to a bowl. Guess they had to add that since there are so many bowls now.
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If there is sponsorship money to be made, W/L probably doesn't matter
 
ESPN FPI got posted earlier, but I'll also add Sagarin here.

Opponent -- FPI GT win chance -- Sagarin line
@ Virginia -- 79.4% -- GT -13
vs Virginia Tech -- 69.3% -- GT -8
@ Miami (FL) -- 64.2% -- GT -7
vs #19 Georgia -- 46.9% -- GT -3

something interesting, GT and uga has the exact same Sagarin predictor rating, so 3 point line is just the home field advantage

some past numbers:
http://www.stingtalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=85451
 
Of our conference games Miami has concerned me the most since before the season started and that hasn't changed. Too many times I've seen us forsake our senses and get our asses kicked by that team.

I haven't seen a ton of Virginia's play, can't really make an informed prediction there. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, I've seen enough of to think that we could end up shellacking the gobbling castrati.

Georgia, no idea. No outcome would surprise me right now but it's not their quality as a team that scares me, it's our tendencies against them especially in Atlanta.
 
I agree with the thoughts on UGA...the last time we beat them at home was the "Miracle on North Ave" in 1999. We always fall on our faces in Atlanta.
 
Not one person has mentioned that we always have a hard time winning in Charlottesville. CPJ has only done it once. 2009.
 
[QUOTE\]Ug 20% It’s a home game, & they own us in Atlanta, so there’s that. And it’s Ug, so even if we wildly outplay them, we usually still need a small act of god to overcome their depth & our internal clenching.[/QUOTE]

You forgot to mention shenanigans by the zebras.
 
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