Schedule's Out

I want these Bobby Bowden bastids NOW!
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qft

We could have easily whooped them the past few years, and our losing streak to FSU really bugs me.
 
hiveredtech said:
...Miami has everyone back plus some talent...they will not be down forever.
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They actually lose quite a few players this year including a couple to early departure. Pluse, who knows how many of them will be in jail for the first few games. OR, there may be another fight before our game with half the team suspended. Then a gain the new coach might actually set them straight.

They're losing:
PK/P - Both with any experience (remaining PK/P worked with scout team only)
TE - Greg Olson - to early departure.
LB - Jon Beason - early departure
DE - Baraka Atkins - has started since 2003 (played DT until last year)
DT - Kareem Brown - Started last year only. Played in all but two games since 2003
WR - Darnell Jackson - Played in every game since 2003
S - Brandon Merriweather - Huge loss for UM
WR - Ryan Moore - One of the their top WR's
DE - Bryan Pata - Starting DE since late 2004.
C - Both starting and backup C are gone this year.

We should be able to handle them pretty well - not easily, but not a 10-7 game.
 
beej67 said:
Here's how I predict seasons. I assign each game a value between zero and one, indicating the chance we win, and I add the chances all up to get the expected number of wins. I do it every year around this time.


9/1 - at ND - 0.6
9/8 - Samford - 0.9
9/15 - BC - 0.7
9/22 - at UVA - 0.7
9/29 - Clemson - 0.6
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.6
10/13 - at Miami - 0.7
10/20 - Army - 0.9
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.2
11/10 - at Duke - 0.9
11/17 - UNC - 0.6
11/24 - UGA - 0.4

7.8 = 8 wins
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Read this yesterday, didn't have time to comment. Nice method for predicting a season - I like it and I think I'm going to steal it. Props beej.

:thumbup:
 
Read this yesterday, didn't have time to comment. Nice method for predicting a season - I like it and I think I'm going to steal it. Props beej.
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So lets see your numbers.

The reason I do it is I always see people saying "no less than 9 wins is unacceptable!" .. but then if they actually go game by game, and do the math, they only add up to 7 or 8 wins. It helps to add clarity to discussion.

Also, I don't ever give any game higher than a 0.9, or lower than a 0.1, because I believe the inherent variability of football will give even the worst team one win in ten. If you play ten games that you "should win handily," you'll still probably lose one or two just on fumbles or freak acts of nature.
 
gnats67 said:
Where are the semenholes?

I want these Bobby Bowden bastids NOW!

I thought we were supposed to get them this year.
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:laugher: They come here in 2008 and then we are there in 2009.
 
beej67 said:
9/1 - at ND - 0.6
9/8 - Samford - 0.9
9/15 - BC - 0.7
9/22 - at UVA - 0.7
9/29 - Clemson - 0.6
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.6
10/13 - at Miami - 0.7
10/20 - Army - 0.9
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.2
11/10 - at Duke - 0.9
11/17 - UNC - 0.6
11/24 - UGA - 0.4

7.8 = 8 wins
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OK, here's my best shot.

9/1 - at ND - 0.6
9/8 - Samford - 1.0
9/15 - BC - 0.6
9/22 - at UVA - 0.4
9/29 - Clemson - 0.8
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.5
10/13 - at Miami - 0.6
10/20 - Army - 0.95
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.6
11/10 - at Duke - 0.95
11/17 - UNC - 0.95
11/24 - UGA - 0.5

8.45 = 8 wins
 
beej67 said:
So lets see your numbers.
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You got it, applying your rules of no ones or zeros:

9/1 - at ND - 0.6
9/8 - Samford - 0.9
9/15 - BC - 0.7
9/22 - at UVA - 0.7
9/29 - Clemson - 0.7
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.5
10/13 - at Miami - 0.5
10/20 - Army - 0.9
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.4
11/10 - at Duke - 0.9
11/17 - UNC - 0.7
11/24 - UGA - 0.4

Total: 7.9 = 8 wins
ACC: 5.1 = 5 wins

My prediction is 8-4 overall, 5-3 ACC. It looks like the realistic consensus around here is 8 wins. Anybody disagree or going to go crazy if we don't win 10?
 
I just don't see why everyone is giving Miami so much love. We know who their OC will be, and THAT certainly shouldn't scare us. We also know how much talent they're losing. Lastly, we know they will have a new HC.
 
GTWannaBee said:
I just don't see why everyone is giving Miami so much love. We know who their OC will be, and THAT certainly shouldn't scare us. We also know how much talent they're losing. Lastly, we know they will have a new HC.
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I think against a good team, which I would consider Miami to be, it's fair to give a 50/50 shot to win on the road. Maybe we beat them, maybe we don't - I lean towards winning, but they never seem to run out of athletic talent. How they're coached this year is certainly the $64K question.
 
haywire83 said:
I think against a good team, which I would consider Miami to be, it's fair to give a 50/50 shot to win on the road. Maybe we beat them, maybe we don't - I lean towards winning, but they never seem to run out of athletic talent. How they're coached this year is certainly the $64K question.
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50/50 may not be a bad assessment. I'd lean closer to 60/40 maybe even 70/30. For us it depends on how our new OC handles things. I see us winning via special teams as they won't have a seasoned kicker or punter next year.
 
9/1 - at ND - 0.5
9/8 - Samford - 0.9
9/15 - BC - 0.6
9/22 - at UVA - 0.4
9/29 - Clemson - 0.5
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.4
10/13 - at Miami - 0.6
10/20 - Army - 0.9
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.4
11/10 - at Duke - 0.9
11/17 - UNC - 0.7
11/24 - UGA - 0.5

7.3 7 or 8 wins looks to me
 
beej67 said:
Here's how I predict seasons. I assign each game a value between zero and one, indicating the chance we win, and I add the chances all up to get the expected number of wins. I do it every year around this time.


9/1 - at ND - 0.6
9/8 - Samford - 0.9
9/15 - BC - 0.7
9/22 - at UVA - 0.7
9/29 - Clemson - 0.6
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.6
10/13 - at Miami - 0.7
10/20 - Army - 0.9
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.2
11/10 - at Duke - 0.9
11/17 - UNC - 0.6
11/24 - UGA - 0.4

7.8 = 8 wins
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I'll play....

9/1 - at ND - 0.55
9/8 - Samford - 1.0
9/15 - BC - 0.75
9/22 - at UVA - 0.4
9/29 - Clemson - 0.75
10/6 - at Maryland - 0.7
10/13 - at Miami - 0.6
10/20 - Army - 0.95
10/27 - Off
11/1 - Va Tech (Thursday) - 0.65
11/10 - at Duke - 0.95
11/17 - UNC - 0.9
11/24 - UGA - 0.45

9 wins with either 6 or 7 in ACC.
 
Predicting the 2007 football season this soon is a futile task. We haven't even seen spring practice yet! Nor do we know who our QB will be!!
 
GTWannaBee said:
50/50 may not be a bad assessment. I'd lean closer to 60/40 maybe even 70/30. For us it depends on how our new OC handles things. I see us winning via special teams as they won't have a seasoned kicker or punter next year.
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One can only dream about winning with ST! ;)
 
haywire83 said:
One can only dream about winning with ST! ;)
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I should have narrowed that down to punting and field position. We SHOULD also have an advantage on field goals if we can get our guy back to proper form.
 
TechGator1066 said:
Predicting the 2007 football season this soon is a futile task. We haven't even seen spring practice yet! Nor do we know who our QB will be!!
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But it's so fun!
 
TechGator1066 said:
Predicting the 2007 football season this soon is a futile task. We haven't even seen spring practice yet! Nor do we know who our QB will be!!
Click to expand...

Relax T_G, we all know that you don't want to think about '07 just yet as you are still basking in the glory of the season that was for the Gators.

:blue:
 
Even though beating Army may not be any more difficult than beating Troy, I would feel a lot better having a win over Army (or any academy) than over Troy.
Plus it will be good to have Bobby Ross back on the Flats again. I hope we make at least a somewhat of a big deal out of that.
 
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