Since we talk about the NFL now to recruits

18in32 said:
I'm one of those people who think recruiting rankings are overblown. That said, this link demonstrates that there's a decent correlation between recruiting rankings and origin-of-NFL-players. The correlation to W/L's is a bit weaker.
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wrong

Most of the teams that have made the CFP have 4 yr rolling averages of 5 or less to let you know how good your recruiting has to be to have a shot to win it all

In other words if you have 4 straight Top10 recruiting classes, but they are all ranked exactly #10, you have NO SHOT of winning it all, and only a slim shot to make the CFP, and that slim shot is usually a blowout in the Semis (Mich St, ND, U-Dub, etc)
 
NotTomNotPhilButGCollins said:
wrong

Most of the teams that have made the CFP have 4 yr rolling averages of 5 or less to let you know how good your recruiting has to be to have a shot to win it all

In other words if you have 4 straight Top10 recruiting classes, but they are all ranked exactly #10, you have NO SHOT of winning it all, and only a slim shot to make the CFP, and that slim shot is usually a blowout in the Semis (Mich St, ND, U-Dub, etc)
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You can prove anything with a small enough sample size
 
NotTomNotPhilButGCollins said:
wrong

Most of the teams that have made the CFP have 4 yr rolling averages of 5 or less to let you know how good your recruiting has to be to have a shot to win it all

In other words if you have 4 straight Top10 recruiting classes, but they are all ranked exactly #10, you have NO SHOT of winning it all, and only a slim shot to make the CFP, and that slim shot is usually a blowout in the Semis (Mich St, ND, U-Dub, etc)
Click to expand...

That's not how statistics work.
 
Geoff Collins and his coaching staff will recruit better than any coach in modern day at Georgia Tech. Within the next 5-6 years GT will be routinely sending 3-5 guys every year to the NFL that will actually play.
 
Tampa Jacket said:
Geoff Collins and his coaching staff will recruit better than any coach in modern day at Georgia Tech. Within the next 5-6 years GT will be routinely sending 3-5 guys every year to the NFL that will actually play.
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Joined board....Thursday. Probably right
 
Tampa Jacket said:
Geoff Collins and his coaching staff will recruit better than any coach in modern day at Georgia Tech. Within the next 5-6 years GT will be routinely sending 3-5 guys every year to the NFL that will actually play.
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Yeah! I can't wait. Move over NC State, here we come.
 
I've thrown together some quick numbers based on the 247 recruiting rankings from 2015-2018. Here's the top 15 or so teams based on the average rankings of the 4 years.

Alabama
Ohio State
Georgia
USC
Florida State
LSU
Auburn
Clemson
Texas
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Penn State
Tennessee
Florida
Texas A&M

What's notable here to me is that USC, FSU, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee are significantly underperforming their recruiting rankings. Even more impressive is that Clemson and Oklahoma are significantly overperforming their recruiting rankings.

Using the CFP final rankings as a measure, other teams that have overperformed (by virtue of not being in the Top 15 recruiting list above) are:

Michigan
UCF
Washington
Washington State
Kentucky

I think the worth of the rankings of recruiting classes is a mixed bag. Clearly, Bama has the best classes up to the past year, and their results on the field match. Clemson has had class rankings of 9, 11, 16 and 7, but they've contended in the past 3-4 years. And what about UCF, who has done amazing things the past 2 years with recruiting classes that don't even hit the radar.

It seems that having a Top 10 class every year is important. But not as important as having the right coaching staff.
 
coit said:
I've thrown together some quick numbers based on the 247 recruiting rankings from 2015-2018. Here's the top 15 or so teams based on the average rankings of the 4 years.

Alabama
Ohio State
Georgia
USC
Florida State
LSU
Auburn
Clemson
Texas
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Penn State
Tennessee
Florida
Texas A&M

What's notable here to me is that USC, FSU, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee are significantly underperforming their recruiting rankings. Even more impressive is that Clemson and Oklahoma are significantly overperforming their recruiting rankings.

Using the CFP final rankings as a measure, other teams that have overperformed (by virtue of not being in the Top 15 recruiting list above) are:

Michigan
UCF
Washington
Washington State
Kentucky

I think the worth of the rankings of recruiting classes is a mixed bag. Clearly, Bama has the best classes up to the past year, and their results on the field match. Clemson has had class rankings of 9, 11, 16 and 7, but they've contended in the past 3-4 years. And what about UCF, who has done amazing things the past 2 years with recruiting classes that don't even hit the radar.

It seems that having a Top 10 class every year is important. But not as important as having the right coaching staff.
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It's all about the QB. You can have 21 4 or 5 star players on both sides of the ball, but if you don't have a good QB, it's hard to beat good competition.

UCF, Oklahoma and Clemson --- have had excellent QBs
The underperformers (Miami, UF, Tennesee, LSU) have had mediocre QBs.

Recruiting classes rankings should be adjusted by multiplying the QBs rating by a factor of 10 and adding it to the rest.
 
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