Some statistics through 3 games that aren't so wretched:

GTKyle said:
you obviously don't know what "progress" means then.
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When watching your weight, you weigh yourself at the beginning of each day, or at the end, but you always measure at the same time every day, because your weight tends to fluctuate based on your routine.

If any statistic is fair for determining "progress" it would be stats through 3 games this year vs stats through 3 games last year. Which would show a dramatic improvement in offense, btw.

I qualified my apples and oranges comparison in the top post though, when I said this:

If we assume that (Clem+Miami+JaxSt)/3 = average for our opponents for last year, then we're on track to improving offensively.
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You just aren't reading, Kyle.
 
WracerX said:
Yeah, we were really unbalanced last year too. We are running a home run offense for sure. It kills me to hear the anouncers talking about the "ball control" and "three yards and a cloud of dust" option offense. Our O doesn't look like that at all.
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The thing is, we won't be truly successful until we do have those 'ball control' drives. It's one thing to have explosive plays, but what happens when those aren't there? We've got to be able to drive the field on 12-15 plays, 4-5 yards a pop. Like Florida vs. Tennessee last week; the big play wasn't there for Florida, but they were still able to drive the length of the field on most drives.
 
Ish said:
The thing is, we won't be truly successful until we do have those 'ball control' drives. It's one thing to have explosive plays, but what happens when those aren't there? We've got to be able to drive the field on 12-15 plays, 4-5 yards a pop. Like Florida vs. Tennessee last week; the big play wasn't there for Florida, but they were still able to drive the length of the field on most drives.
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If opponents are loading 10 players within 5 yds of the line of scrimmage, taking the chance that we'll break a big one in order to stop us from gaining a first down, well then we'll simply have to break the big ones.

We will have longer drives vs opponents who are giving us short plays and taking the long ones away. This is how football works.
 
beej67 said:
If any statistic is fair for determining "progress" it would be stats through 3 games this year vs stats through 3 games last year. Which would show a dramatic improvement in offense, btw.
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I stand corrected. I thought our O looked worse this year. But I guess it just looked worse than I had hoped it would look.

Our D has been craptacular though.
 
Our offense definitely looks a lot worse than I'd hoped it would look. But that's a comparison to stats in my brain, so it's not exactly fair.
 
GTKyle said:
you obviously don't know what "progress" means then.
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so if i show you two games in succession that show improvement but we were actually statistically better in the three games prior to the first one you counted you would think that sound, even though in reality performance would have not progressed at all.

dumbass
 
WracerX said:
I stand corrected. I thought our O looked worse this year. But I guess it just looked worse than I had hoped it would look.

Our D has been craptacular though.
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I think this is a misconception that a lot of people are jumping to because of 2 things:

1.) Our defense is so bad that we're still playing close games. The natural assumption is that if we had a better offense we'd win by more points.

2.) How good we looked in the games before the LSU game. There was an expectation that we were going to be amazing in year two.

While we aren't amazing, I'd say we're still better than where we were last year at this point. Now if we can keep the trend of being better than where we were at 'any point' the rest of the year then I expect we'll have a very good season (regardless of our porous defense).

I'd say the first three games are very similar to the opponents we played last year (defense wise). JSU = JSU. BC similar to Clemson, big DLine and athletic DLine. VPI similar to Miami, very fast and athletic.

We've scored more points each game 'comparatively'. I know it's apples and oranges, but the oranges are a reddish orange.
 
I get what you are saying here beej. However, I think your points per game stat is a little misleading. While it is true that we are averaging 28 points per game this season overall, 21 of the 84 total points were scored on special teams plays. When those are removed the O is only averaging 21 points per.
 
It's much better to compare the same time period. Our first 3 last year were against similar opponents, Jax St, BC and VT.
 
If you guys are going to continue to whine about how trend analysis works, your time would be better spent doing some excel graphs with our published stats.
 
Here's a helpful task, should you all choose to accept it: Go back to the Miami game on ESPN360, now that you know the outcome and your emotions are in check, and watch the game again.

You will see how we played well at times on offense, and just how close we were to being a good offensive team. Near as I can tell, we gave up about 85 yards (and 6 points) due to 5-6 stupid penalties/plays, and in that was at least 3 more first downs - which would have netted us at least 9 more plays.

We were 5 plays away from at least another 125-150 yards of offense. Add that to our 225 or so that we had, and you end up with 350-400 of offense.

We are not that far off. I think the breakout game happens this Saturday.
 
WracerX said:
Yeah, we were really unbalanced last year too. We are running a home run offense for sure. It kills me to hear the anouncers talking about the "ball control" and "three yards and a cloud of dust" option offense. Our O doesn't look like that at all.
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Ideally, it should be a 5-10 yards and a cloud of dust offense, although we'll take the home runs of course. We've seen that on a couple of drives, like the first Miami drive, although that one stalled in the red zone and we had to settle for a field goal.
 
Yukonwreck said:
Is there data on gains on first down? I don't have any facts, but my feel is that we are getting less on first down--sometimes because we pass unsuccessfully--and that we are in tough down and distance situations relative to last year. Might just be my imagination.
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cfbstats.com has splits.

Rushing:

1D 6.40
2D 5.00
3D 3.86
4D one for -23 (we should have

Passing: Tech has completed 17 passes and 15 of them were for first downs or touchdowns. GT is #6 nationally in yards per pass attempt and I think there are some signs of improvement even if it's not what we hoped. By quarter:

1D 5-11-133, 2 INT, 1 TD
2D 3-11-28
3D 8-18-217, 1 TD, all eight completions made first down.
4D 1-2-34, 1 TD (Blair to Bay Bay)


Rushing by quarter is the thing that really tells an interesting story. The per-carry numbers by quarter (1st to 4th) are 9.38, 5.48, 2.52 and 3.76. In 2008 they were 5.32, 5.09, 6.91 and 4.76.

We expect a PJ team to come out of the locker room for the 2nd half like gangbusters due to fresh adjustments after breaking down the opposition, and that's exactly what happened in 2008. This year, we've seen the exact opposite. The offensive story of GT's young season is terrible, terrible third quarters.

But only three games isn't very many possessions and maybe isn't enough to be really meaningful. Let's see what happens the next few weeks.
 
beej67 said:
When watching your weight, you weigh yourself at the beginning of each day, or at the end, but you always measure at the same time every day, because your weight tends to fluctuate based on your routine.

If any statistic is fair for determining "progress" it would be stats through 3 games this year vs stats through 3 games last year. Which would show a dramatic improvement in offense, btw.

I qualified my apples and oranges comparison in the top post though, when I said this:



You just aren't reading, Kyle.
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Ugh. If you want to use weight loss as an analogy. We weighed a trim 185 at the end of last season and now we weigh 215. That is negative progress.
 
stinger78 said:
Here's a helpful task, should you all choose to accept it: Go back to the Miami game on ESPN360, now that you know the outcome and your emotions are in check, and watch the game again.

You will see how we played well at times on offense, and just how close we were to being a good offensive team. Near as I can tell, we gave up about 85 yards (and 6 points) due to 5-6 stupid penalties/plays, and in that was at least 3 more first downs - which would have netted us at least 9 more plays.

We were 5 plays away from at least another 125-150 yards of offense. Add that to our 225 or so that we had, and you end up with 350-400 of offense.

We are not that far off. I think the breakout game happens this Saturday.
Click to expand...

I did that last Friday. I thought it would be horrible. Turns out it really wasn't as horrible as I thought.

(I fast forwarded through Miami's offensive series though, hehe)
 
GTKyle said:
Ugh. If you want to use weight loss as an analogy. We weighed a trim 185 at the end of last season and now we weigh 215. That is negative progress.
Click to expand...
..
beej67 said:
If you guys are going to continue to whine about how trend analysis works, your time would be better spent doing some excel graphs with our published stats.
Click to expand...
 
beej67 said:
2008:

6.01 yds/play
2.07 TOs lost per game
24.38 points/game

2009 so far:

6.35 yds/play
1.67 TOs lost per game
28 points/game

If we assume that (Clem+Miami+JaxSt)/3 = average for our opponents for last year, then we're on track to improving offensively.
Click to expand...

OK grasshoppa, now show the defensive stats...
 
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