I started the thread over on the Hive with my original post, and since Bugbuy brought it over here, I do think it is a very good discussion for the off-season. Since posts roll off the Hive so quickly, I am going to re-post my original here first, and then add additional comments:
With the stadium expansion now taking shape in two seperate phases, I thought it might be good pre-season/off-season fodder to discuss the expansion. The time is almost near that we will need to fill 55,000 for every home game. We all agree that attendance and enthusiasm for the program has been at a 30/35 year high the past 5 years. That being said, the new task is to sell 12,000 more season tickets over the next 18 months. What is everyone's opinion of our ability of selling more? How difficult is this going to be?
A couple of things to consider are first the schedule, the second being where the new seats are located. Let's start with the additional seats first. The majority of the new seats will be the Upper North stands to be ready for 2003. In essence, "quality" season ticket seats are NOT increasing with the expansion. We will have the same or less seats between the 20s (preferred seating as a season ticket holder) in 2002 and beyond as 2001. So, will 12,000 new season ticket holders want to sit in the Upper North, even if the demand is there for 12,000 additional season tickets?
Another aspect of the additional seating is the lack of parking on campus for the additional fans. Parking space has decreased over the past few years on campus, and like it or not, football fans want to park on campus and tailgate, and do NOT like taking mass transit (Marta). What can be done to increase parking on campus? I know there has been a movement on campus to eliminate parking and add "green" space", which will not help.
Another driving factor in our future football attendance is the schedule. The following is our home schedule (not counting Auburn at Ga. Dome in 2003) for 2002-04:
2002
Vandy
BYU
Wake
UVa
FSU
Duke
2003
UNC
NC State
Maryland
Clemson
Georgia
2004
UConn
Duke
Wake
UVa
FSU
Auburn
I am concerned about the 2002 and even more so, the 2004 home schedules. What will our attendance be for Duke & Wake this coming year? Neither are homecoming and neither school will bring more than 100 or so fans. Will we get 38,000 for either of those in 2002? What about 2004, when the stadium holds 55,000? Will we have 38,000 in a 55,000 seat stadium for Duke in 2004? You have 3 games in '04 that have the making for sub-40,000 crowds. Does this warrant a 55,000 seat stadium? I am just asking the question not meaning to knock what we are doing.
My question I guess is: Do we definitely expand to phase II after the 2002 season or do we wait until demand for season tickets continue to increase? I feel that the "renovation" was most certainly needed and will make BDS@HGF a beautiful place for a football game. But are we ready for Phase II now? I wonder if we don't need to upgrade the schedule more and make the campus more fan friendly (parking) first.
Anyway, I wanted to get the thoughts from you Five and see what everyone thinks. Hopefully, we'll add many more season ticket holders in 2003, when the stadium goes to 55,000, and it'll be full every game.
Now, for some additional comments:
For those that feel we will draw 50,000+ immediately vs UNC, Md. and NCSU, I ask where are these sudden 10,000 or so folks gonna come from? If you start with the premise with these three opponents that the games will NOT be a homcoming game, how can we say we'd have 50,000+ right now? Last year the stadium held right at 42,000 and though the games were announced as sellouts (wink wink), there were still small pockets of seats vacant, which had not been sold (maybe 500 to 1,000 total). So, my question is: Where do we suddenly get an extra 10,000 for those games? Not only that, but they must be willing to sit in the Upper North. Granted, with continued winning, our fan base will grow each year, but that may take 10 years to grow by 10,000 more season tickets. Plus, neither of those schools ever bring more than 4,000-5,000 to a game here. Maryland may not even bring 2,000.
So, continuing with my premise of none of the games being homecoming, here is my take on our attendance vs these schools over the next couple of years with our 55,000 seat stadium:
Georgia 55,000
Florida State 55,000
Clemson 55,000
Auburn 55,000
BYU 42,000 (capacity for 2002)
Virginia 42,000
North Carolina 42,000
NC State 42,000
Maryland 40,000
Duke 38,000
Wake forest 38,000
What have the ACC schools historically drawn in games here? How many other than vs Clemson or FSU truly have been a sellout? UVa in 1991 (first game after NC) not UVa in 1998 nor UVa in 2000 were sellouts. Plus, remember those announced crowds of 44,000+ prior to 2001 were actually less than 40,000 most likely as the AA had been overstating attendance and BDS@HGF capacity by more than 4,500.
Open to more "fodder" and "theories".
Anyway, not saying we can't do it, just that it ain't gonna be easy and we gotta keep pushing for ticket sales. It is a LARGE task!!