Stunned at the line on the game

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gatorbuzz

Varsity Lurker
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Aug 1, 2005
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Getting 3.5 points? Wow. Honestly I was expecting double-digits (11.5-14.5 range). Though I've had a terrible year picking.

What's the angle?
- dawgs overlooking us?
- our run d?
- home field adv?
- autocorrelation across recent years' outcomes?

I can't make sense of it. I want to believe it. An expectation of 3.5 means a turnover and another break our way and we get the W.

I've got to believe they are looking at the recent games, and how close they've been (which I think is not the way to go when figuring a pick ats).

Thoughts?
 
They always leave rivalry games close, especially given home-field advantage.
 
Well I'd look at two factors.

1) It's a home game for Tech
2) It's a rivalry game

Those two things will usually push a spread closer to a push.
 
I thought the number would be about a touchdown.

But I've never been able to pick ATS.
 
The last three games have been 7-6, 7-7 and 16-13 going into the fourth quarter --I'm a bit surprised at the line --but not all that much.

Da**it --we should have at least won one of those!
 
kirbee said:
I thought the number would be about a touchdown.

But I've never been able to pick ATS.
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I think it'll end up at about 6.5 - 7. I'm shocked it's so low. It sayd more about Uga than us as we know we're not that great. I'm not sure how the line can stay under a TD unless they think UGA will be busier watchign the TN/UK game than ours.

BTW, UK is a 3 pt fav over UT.
 
the odds makers are not trying to pick winners as much as they are trying to entice more bets -- a hard concept for amature betters to grasp.... hence all the luxurious hotel lobbys in vegas.
 
It is one of those games where if they score 50+ on us I'll say, "man, I could see that coming." But if we hold them to <20, then I'll say "wow, Tenuta's d really stepped up like I knew they could."

Given the uncertainty implied above, I can feel certain that my (though not easily communicated or quantified)
expectation was more than two std errors away from 3.5. Can't say what the std error is, but 3.5 wasn't within the range of expectation.

More than most of the time I'll see the line and say, "yeah, I was expecting that" b/c the outcome is at least close. The combination of Moreno, their dump screens to the flats, and the qb's deep throw accuracy has me worried.

All said, I think I'm really glad to see it 3.5. Gives me hope. Turnovers and special teams!
 
wreckingball said:
the odds makers are not trying to pick winners as much as they are trying to entice more bets -- a hard concept for amature betters to grasp.... hence all the luxurious hotel lobbys in vegas.
Click to expand...

Actually they're trying to entire more bets on both sides of the line. This is a very important distinction. If Vegas just wanted to entice more bets they'd post GT -10. You can guarantee there'd be more bets in that case.

Bottom line is If there is an inefficiency in the line the gamblers will exploit it. Vegas doesn't make money on gambling, Vegas makes money on the fees they collect for providing a service to gamblers.
 
kirbee said:
Actually they're trying to entire more bets on both sides of the line. This is a very important distinction. If Vegas just wanted to entice more bets they'd post GT -10. You can guarantee there'd be more bets in that case.

Bottom line is If there is an inefficiency in the line the gamblers will exploit it. Vegas doesn't make money on gambling, Vegas makes money on the fees they collect for providing a service to gamblers.
Click to expand...

I guess I was saying the same thing just not with the deatail...my bad.
 
#2 on Kyle's list would be the only reason. Not to mention that this year has showed college football fans that anything is possible.

Lets be honest, it's not really a home game for Tech. It's more like a 50/50 bowl game at best. The red finds a way to get in and we don't attempt to stop them.

I'm surprised the line is not larger considering all UGA has to play for. They have no control over the SEC right now, but if they lose their hopes of an at large BCS game are over. I worry that if we don't keep it close they could attempt to run up the score to impress voters.


GTKyle said:
Well I'd look at two factors.

1) It's a home game for Tech
2) It's a rivalry game

Those two things will usually push a spread closer to a push.
Click to expand...
 
kirbee said:
Actually they're trying to entire more bets on both sides of the line. This is a very important distinction. If Vegas just wanted to entice more bets they'd post GT -10. You can guarantee there'd be more bets in that case.

Bottom line is If there is an inefficiency in the line the gamblers will exploit it. Vegas doesn't make money on gambling, Vegas makes money on the fees they collect for providing a service to gamblers.
Click to expand...
I think GT -3.5 will entice plenty of bettors....
 
don't be surprised. Vegas has been so off on tech this year; they are 2-8 (we covered duke and army)

THAT is stunning.
 
Vegas isn't off on us if they get anywhere near an equal number of bets on both sides. They don't care anything about how close the line is to what ends up happening.
 
33jacket said:
don't be surprised. Vegas has been so off on tech this year; they are 2-8 (we covered duke and army)

THAT is stunning.
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Not sure if you are just saying random stuff or if you're going to some messed up site for your odds, but we covered against Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Army, and Duke. That makes us 5-5 against the spread, which is not so stunning.
 
gth816f said:
Not sure if you are just saying random stuff or if you're going to some messed up site for your odds, but we covered against Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Army, and Duke. That makes us 5-5 against the spread, which is not so stunning.
Click to expand...

:laugher:
 
law_bee said:
:laugher:
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All I know is we have beat 1 team with a winning record, and the 2 teams that remotely look like UGA made us look like Duke. Oh, we were favored against VA Tech and if that doesnt say it all...Again, if this is low scoring and we win or beat the spread then Gailey definitely deserves that NFL HC job because it would be a heck of an achievement with what he has put together. Perfect place for Gailey would be GA STATE- he and Reeves could tag team the running game there...
 
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