Stunned at the line on the game

[floridajacket]

Vegas isn't off on us if they get anywhere near an equal number of bets on both sides. They don't care anything about how close the line is to what ends up happening.

I thought it was like that too, until I read an article about how the casinos really work. If you walk into a casino, you might as well be walking into the CIA's headquarters. They keep track of the faces and note the successful bettors. If a successful bettor bets heavily against that line, they'll move the line in that direction no matter how everybody else is betting.

The point is that they want more than just the vig. They want to entice a lot of rich, dumb amateur bettors with palatial suites and sucker lines to lose their grandmother's inheritance.

The article also stated that home dogs have somehow always been more likely than not to cover. I don't know, maybe the bettors are realizing that and overreacting. Thus, GT's surprising lines against VPI and UGA.

 

[thwg]

I thought it was like that too, until I read an article about how the casinos really work. If you walk into a casino, you might as well be walking into the CIA's headquarters. They keep track of the faces and note the successful bettors. If a successful bettor bets heavily against that line, they'll move the line in that direction no matter how everybody else is betting.

The point is that they want more than just the vig. They want to entice a lot of rich, dumb amateur bettors with palatial suites and sucker lines to lose their grandmother's inheritance.

The article also stated that home dogs have somehow always been more likely than not to cover. I don't know, maybe the bettors are realizing that and overreacting. Thus, GT's surprising lines against VPI and UGA.

The article was within the context of the NFL. i don't think the data on home dogs is nearly as consistent in college.

Also, while they may swing a line with a huge bet, we're talking like $100,000 bets from guys they know consistently win at a decent rate. They figure if he bets big ad ususally wins they need to move the line more than they had thought.

I think Vegas like most businesses prefers to make money without much risk.

 

[33jacket]

Not sure if you are just saying random stuff or if you're going to some messed up site for your odds, but we covered against Notre Dame, Clemson, Miami, Army, and Duke. That makes us 5-5 against the spread, which is not so stunning.

How can we cover vs ND when we weren't favored? ND was favored by 3. We won = vegas was wrong

Clemson was favored by 3. We won = vegas was wrong.

Miami was favored as well. We won = vegas was wrong.

In those three instances WE WEREN'T favored so how could we cover?

Secondly, we were favored vs MD, UVA, BC, VT and lost all of those....= vegas was wrong

so Vegas is 2-8 on GT. I am not sure why that is confusing. Maybe its my terminology or yours, but I don't think we can cover if we aren't favored and predicted to lost by Vegas. Miami, ND and Clemson were all favored when we played them.

 

[gth816f]

HAHA...how can we cover vs ND when we weren't favored? ND was favored by 3. We won = vegas was wrong

Clemson was favored by 3. We won = vegas was wrong.

Miami was favored as well. We won = vegas was wrong.

In those three instances WE WEREN'T favored so how could we cover.

...do you know how sports betting works? I'm not really sure how to respond to this. Covering just means that you win the game when taking into account the points Vegas took from or gave to you. It has nothing to do with being an underdog or a favorite. The point of the spread is to make the game even, so that there is no underdog or favorite when using it(I realize that it is also to entice people into betting both sides equally, but the two goals often coincide). Given no underdog or favorite, you would have a 50% chance of winning or losing the game, and we have gone 5-5 vs. the spread, so Vegas has been right.

 

[33jacket]

...do you know how sports betting works? I'm not really sure how to respond to this. Covering just means that you win the game when taking into account the points Vegas took from or gave to you. It has nothing to do with being an underdog or a favorite.

right...its my terminology.

What I am trying to say is THIS.

Vegas picked GT to beat MD, UVA, VT and BC...They were wrong all 4 times. They picked GT to beat UNC, they were right, but we didn't cover.

They picked clemson, miami and ND to beat GT...they were wrong there as well.

So if a person picked the favorite in each of GT's games; they would be 2-8.

Thats all i am saying...that taking the favorite in GT's games has proved disaster this year.

And no I am not a gambling guru, I am happy to say.

So, point is UGA is favored, if you take UGA, either they don't cover or GT wins the game...based on GT and vegas this year.

Personally, I am thinking UGA wins by 10-13.

I guess I should edit my post to say vegas is 2-8 vs GT when playing the favorites?