The Odds are Against Kirby Smart

ScionOfSouthland

ScionOfSouthland

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https://www.dawgnation.com/football...-head-coaches-have-fared-in-their-first-years

Head coaches whose team’s record worsens in their debuts don’t tend to go on to win titles. In fact, since the SEC expanded in 1992, only twice has the conference title has been won by a coach who went backwards in his first year at that school. And only once in the past 25 years has a national title been won by a coach who slid in his first year.
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Alabama is the only school to win the SEC after a coach backslides in their first year.

First Dooley...
Then Mucshamp...
Now Smart...

Is Nick Saban sabotaging the SEC East? Thanks for the hire, Georgia! Looking forward to the continued success. I hope when you hire a new one for the 2019 season you go back to the well.
 
Can you even imagine Kirby winning a national title? He just doesn't seem the type.
 
00Burdell said:
Can you even imagine Kirby winning a national title? He just doesn't seem the type.
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I can imagine CPJ winning it a lot easier than I can Kirby. Saban has sabotaged uga for a generation. He must hate them worse than Spurrier did.
 
I just dont see it with Kirby. Seems dry as melba toast. He runs around the sideline like a monkey trying to hump a doorknob with his banana fingers in the offensive huddle, defensive huddle special teams. Just doesnt look or act like a head coach.

He can recruit, but I dont think he knows how to coach or run a program.

Also, Bamas D was better this year with Pruitt than with Kirby. Saban has fooled another program because that D is his and his alone.
 
TheTaxJacket said:
Also, Bamas D was better this year with Pruitt than with Kirby. Saban has fooled another program because that D is his and his alone.
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You are correct. Saban does a LOT of the defensive coaching. It's not that Smart didn't do anything at Alabama, but Saban is very involved and it's his defense ultimately.

The offense isn't so much. That's why he has all these bright offensive guys that he's brought in.
 
EastboundJacket said:
You are correct. Saban does a LOT of the defensive coaching. It's not that Smart didn't do anything at Alabama, but Saban is very involved and it's his defense ultimately.

The offense isn't so much. That's why he has all these bright offensive guys that he's brought in.
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And Kirby hiring Cheney to develop Eason says all we need to know. Dabo is a good HC because he hires great Coordinators. Kirby hired a proven mediocre OC that UT and Razorback fans were happy to see leave. Kirby just doesnt seem to get it.
 
TheTaxJacket said:
I just dont see it with Kirby. Seems dry as melba toast. He runs around the sideline like a monkey trying to hump a doorknob with his banana fingers in the offensive huddle, defensive huddle special teams. Just doesnt look or act like a head coach.

He can recruit, but I dont think he knows how to coach or run a program.

Also, Bamas D was better this year with Pruitt than with Kirby. Saban has fooled another program because that D is his and his alone.
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So, you don't fire a coach averaging nearly 10 wins a season for a rebuilding job? ;)
 
TheTaxJacket said:
I just dont see it with Kirby. Seems dry as a monkey trying to hump a doorknob with his banana. That D is his and his alone.
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ab533cc6293b8d7046b02d7a51898718.jpg
 
Not concerned with ugag back sliding, winning any conference or other titles.

Only concerned with us beating them.

THAT should be our only concern.
 
If your criteria is a national title, the odds are always against you, by a lot.

Unless you are Saban.
 
TheTaxJacket said:
I just dont see it with Kirby. Seems dry as melba toast. He runs around the sideline like a monkey trying to hump a doorknob with his banana fingers in the offensive huddle, defensive huddle special teams. Just doesnt look or act like a head coach.

He can recruit, but I dont think he knows how to coach or run a program.

Also, Bamas D was better this year with Pruitt than with Kirby. Saban has fooled another program because that D is his and his alone.
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That shot of him completely and totally confused and unawares when their safety went out with an injury was as telling as anything I saw. He had no idea what was going on. Just no gravitas. That haircut doesn't help.
 
ScionOfSouthland said:
https://www.dawgnation.com/football...-head-coaches-have-fared-in-their-first-years



Alabama is the only school to win the SEC after a coach backslides in their first year.

First Dooley...
Then Mucshamp...
Now Smart...

Is Nick Saban sabotaging the SEC East? Thanks for the hire, Georgia! Looking forward to the continued success. I hope when you hire a new one for the 2019 season you go back to the well.
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This point has been made many times, but this situation is very similar to Tennessee firing Fulmer and hiring Dooley. Both involved a school firing one of their most successful (if not the most successful) coaches of all time. Of course you will have a drop-off with a brand new coach after firing a Fulmer or Richt, even if the brand new coach turns out to be good. Then Muschamp followed a hugely successful coach who quit. Of course a new coach will backslide after Urban Meyer.

The fact that Saban didn't backslide indicates to me that a coach's record in his first season is not strongly correlated to his later success. In any case, the sample size here is too small to draw conclusions. Just an empty talking point.
 
MtownJacket said:
This point has been made many times, but this situation is very similar to Tennessee firing Fulmer and hiring Dooley. Both involved a school firing one of their most successful (if not the most successful) coaches of all time. Of course you will have a drop-off with a brand new coach after firing a Fulmer or Richt, even if the brand new coach turns out to be good. Then Muschamp followed a hugely successful coach who quit. Of course a new coach will backslide after Urban Meyer.

The fact that Saban didn't backslide indicates to me that a coach's record in his first season is not strongly correlated to his later success. In any case, the sample size here is too small to draw conclusions. Just an empty talking point.
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I think the article makes a case for the opposite - that a coach's first season record is indicative of long-term success. If a first year coach does better than the predecesssor they are more likely to be competitive in-conference and nationally. I don't know the size of the population, but they went back over 30 years. Saban's tree may not have a large sample size, but the only ones that have had success aren't in the SEC. Maybe it is coincidence, maybe it isn't.
 
I don't think Saban has any special sauce with coaching outside recruiting. The real key to Saban's success was his recruiting, and that was mostly due to Saban's ability and tenacity himself. The NCAA created a rule to limit how much coaches can travel to high schools in the spring because of Nick Saban. Nick Saban is also probably the best pure salesman in the living room of any coach in the NCAA.

http://www.campusrush.com/nick-saban-alabama-college-football-recruiting-1340326030.html#

And this was included in the 2008 class, which came from his extensive visits.

Of course that was the year that Saban signed his famous 2008 recruiting class, which included the likes of Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, Marcell Dareus, Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw.
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After 2008 and then the national championships, the success at Alabama fed in on itself. I wonder if Saban himself would have had as much success at Texas, with the new recruiting restrictions. Certainly Kirby Smart and McElwain can't sell Florida and Georgia like Saban can sell Alabama.
 
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