The Road To 7 or 8 Wins Is Mighty Tough Without A W Against UL …

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GoldenIsle

Damn Good Rat
Joined
Dec 17, 2017
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If we lose to UL, forget 8 wins and we have to sweep the three Carolina schools and VT to get 7. Of course I’m not counting any wins against Miami, ND, & UGA which two of those teams have shown they are vulnerable the last two weeks. We just need to take care of business against UL … rush for 200+, pass for 200+, win TOP & TO battle, and the D has to get off the field some on 3rd down plays. Sounds simple enough
 
I continue to believe Syracuse is much better than given credit for. I fully expect to beat Louisville this coming weekend. Maybe by double digits. Our team looks pretty good. I think we will have a bunch of wins. To me GA State was a good measuring stick. We beat them pretty handily at the end of the day. I think we are a top 25 team and the results will bear out. 9-3 if we play clean games all the way through. 10-2+ if we get some really good luck. 7-5 if we have bad luck.
 
Ga State's win over Vandy has me feeling a lot better about where we are. State controlled the game for 3 quarters, let Vandy come back in the 4th (likely due to difference in depth), but pulled it out at the end.

I think we beat Louisville. After this week's action, the only game that scares me is Miami, but being in November, I hope they're in their typical late season meltdown.
 
Duke, Carolina, VT, NC State, and one of three from Miami, Notre Dame, Ugag gets us to 8. But we’ll beat Louisville.
 
gojkts said:
Duke, Carolina, VT, NC State, and one of three from Miami, Notre Dame, Ugag gets us to 8. But we’ll beat Louisville.
Click to expand...
If we beat Louisville and get to the first Bye at 4-1, then the only remaining game in any question whatsoever is Notre Dame, but that's just because we don't know yet whose side Sheamus is on. With him on our side, we will win a very tough, tight game. If he sides with Notre Dame, we win by 50+.
 
7-5 with the schedule remaining in place is still a very good year. That said, NCSU looks like a paper tiger right now. If GT loses to UofL Saturday, 8-4, 7-5 is still in play. ND isn’t as good as people thought. VT lost to Vandy. Enough said.

After week 3, the 3 toughest games right now are UofL, Miami, uga. Not really concerned with the rest of the schedule. GT is better than everyone else.
 
Win probability for the rest of the games on GT’s schedule, according to ESPN Analytics:
Path to a bowl runs through wins vs. Duke, @ VT and vs. NC State....

L’ville: 20.6%
Duke: 72.4%
UNC: 48.5% - Toss Up
ND: 28.7%
VT: 50.3%
Miami: 38.1%
NC State: 77.9%
Athens: 7.4%
 
Help me understand an analytical model that gives us a ten percentage points better chance of defeating Miami than Notre Dame, with both games in Atlanta.
 
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