The only one that’s not a possibility is probably the nutlickers. Every other game is winnable. Probability is low in most cases, but worst cases are Clemson and Da U at 15% The others we probably have 25% chance of winning.
Bare minimum this year is winning directional U and Dook, plus 1-2 above. We should be competitive in 5 above, have a decent showing in 2 and get boat races again where it hurts.
In summary win 4 games is likely scenario, 3 or less would be an abortion and 5 would be above expected. 6+ and he buys himself another year.