We probably should not pretend anyone can lose to Duke...and unfortunately NCState for that matter. Miami is really sitting pretty...if they beat us it should be theres as NCState will not beat them.
The only plausible scenario I see is:
1) We beat Miami
2) UVA loses to Clemson
3) UVA beats VT
4) UNC loses to Maryland...and...arrgh...either NCState or Duke. That is the part I have little faith in.