What are our chances of winning the Coastal?

cajunjacket

cajunjacket

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What are the scenarios that must take place? Is there a real chance that we could win the division?

I know we have to win against Miami. But who has to lose and what are the remaining opponents of those teams that have to lose?

Thanks
 
The way I understand it:

We have to win against Miami
AND
UNC has to lose to EITHER NC State OR Duke
AND
Virginia Tech has to lose to Duke OR Virginia
AND
Virginia has to lose to Clemson OR Virginia Tech.

So if VT/UVA doesn't win next weekend(or we lose to Miami), the dream dies.
 
That's right.

Simply, we just have to beat Miami and have UNC/UVA/VPI all lose one more to avoid the tie-breaker situation.

UVA or VPI will lose one since they are playing each other as rivals at the end of the regular season. So What we would like to see is UVA lose to Clemson then beat VPI since I don't see VPI losing to Duke. NC State just beat Wake so that gives us a better chance although I don't see UNC losing to either NCSU or Duke.
 
Just for the sake of figuring it out since it is still a mathematical possibility, the most likely scenario would be:

GT wins v. UM
UNC loses v. NCSt
VT loses v. UVA
UVA loses v. CU and wins @ VT

Notice that you're depending on three teams losing three home games in order for this scenario to be realized.
 
I think NC State upsets UNC next weekend. The Wolfpack know if they win out they go to a bowl. Then all we will have to do is beat Thug U and pull for Clemson over UVA and then UVA over VPI the following week. It seems like a little much to overcome, but damn I'm excited to see it unfold!
 
GT65_UGA89 said:
Just for the sake of figuring it out since it is still a mathematical possibility, the most likely scenario would be:

GT wins v. UM
UNC loses v. NCSt
VT loses v. UVA
UVA loses v. CU and wins @ VT

Notice that you're depending on three teams losing three home games in order for this scenario to be realized.
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yep
slim to none
are the chances
but we can still go 9-3, 8-4, not a bad season at all
 
Yellow_Jacket said:
I think NC State upsets UNC next weekend. The Wolfpack know if they win out they go to a bowl. Then all we will have to do is beat Thug U and pull for Clemson over UVA and then UVA over VPI the following week. It seems like a little much to overcome, but damn I'm excited to see it unfold!
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Clemson could easily beat UVA, but I'n not sure UVA will win over VPI in turkey-land (it's still very possible though). The longer shot right now is UNC losing to NC State (Duke ain't gonna happen - though stranger things have happened).
 
GTWannaBee said:
Clemson could easily beat UVA, but I'n not sure UVA will win over VPI in turkey-land (it's still very possible though). The longer shot right now is UNC losing to NC State (Duke ain't gonna happen - though stranger things have happened).
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NCSU over UNC is a bit of a long shot, but it's just one of those rivalry games. UNC is 7-3 and NCSU is 4-6 and are faced with the same scenario they had last year, win and you're in. The only problem is they lost their last game to Maryland 30-0 and finished 5-7. I'm keeping my fingers crossed!
 
If we beat Thug U and the nad lickers, go to the Peach Bowl and beat a good SEC team there, I'd be just as happy as winning the ACC and playing Utah in the Orange.
 
gth816f said:
The way I understand it:

We have to win against Miami
AND
UNC has to lose to EITHER NC State OR Duke
AND
Virginia Tech has to lose to Duke OR Virginia
AND
Virginia has to lose to Clemson OR Virginia Tech.

So if VT/UVA doesn't win next weekend(or we lose to Miami), the dream dies.
Click to expand...

Whatever our chances were, they increased dramatically this weekend with UNC's loss. I tend to think they increased with Duke's loss as well, because now they have to win out to get bowl eligible, and Duke winning out really helps us.

I'd say they're higher than 1 in a hundred, but probably not higher than 15 in a hundred. Maybe 30% if we beat Miami.
 
Even if we beat Miami, I'd say there would be close to a 12-15% chance of us making the ACCCG.

Still can't believe we're favored by 3.5 vs Miami.
 
georgia_tech_swagger said:
1 in 100.

And frankly... I could give a rat's arse about the ACC title.

BEAT GEORGIA. Period.
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while i want to beat UGA in the worst way, why not care about winning the conference? that gets us a BCS bowl.

it is that kind of mentality that will for ever make us a step child of UGA, instead of a program in our own right, in our own conference.
 
Even if we beat Miami, I'd say there would be close to a 12-15% chance of us making the ACCCG.
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I was thinking in terms of coin flips earlier. If you use 'real' estimates of who might win, it's closer to your number, but still higher than I thought it'd be. Here's the math, FWIW..

UNC has to lose to EITHER NC State OR Duke
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Say UNC is 70% on both these games, which I'm not so sure they are. That's only a 49% they win out, a 42% of winning one and losing the other, and a 9% UNC loses out.

Virginia Tech has to lose to Duke OR Virginia
AND
Virginia has to lose to Clemson OR Virginia Tech.
Click to expand...
These two scenarios aren't in a vacuum. Either VT or UVA wins the VT/UVA game, so lets look at that. Call that 60/40 VT. Chance VT beats Duke is probably 80%, and I think the Clemson/UVA game is 50/50.

That leaves us with a 48% chance of VT winning out, and a 20% chance of UVA winning out, for a net of 32% that neither wins out, which is what we want.

So it's 51% that UNC goes our way, and 32% that the state of Virginia goes our way, for a net chance of making the ACCCG of 16.3%


Now personally, I think UNC is less than 70% on both those games, because they're state rivalries and UNC has gotten lucky a lot this year already - I don't think they're as good as their record indicates. I'm also unconvinced that VT is as good as the numbers I put in above. Run the math with coin flips and we've got a 38% chance of going to the ACCCG if we beat Miami.
 
beej67 said:
Whatever our chances were, they increased dramatically this weekend with UNC's loss. I tend to think they increased with Duke's loss as well, because now they have to win out to get bowl eligible, and Duke winning out really helps us.

I'd say they're higher than 1 in a hundred, but probably not higher than 15 in a hundred. Maybe 30% if we beat Miami.
Click to expand...

The needed win over Miami is a pretty bit matzo ball out there.
 
beej67 said:
Whatever our chances were, they increased dramatically this weekend with UNC's loss. I tend to think they increased with Duke's loss as well, because now they have to win out to get bowl eligible, and Duke winning out really helps us.

I'd say they're higher than 1 in a hundred, but probably not higher than 15 in a hundred. Maybe 30% if we beat Miami.
Click to expand...

You have the insight that few have noticed. Everyone is focused on the teams we need to receive another loss (VPI, UNC, UVA ) but the drama going on with these teams' opponents is a factor as well. Duke has become a bigtime player in our fortunes --NCST as well. Before the past week, we needed a set of six specific losses out of 11 games.
We got 2 out of 2 Thursday and Saturday. We control the Tech-Miami game, so, win against Miami, and we are down to needing 3 specific losses. One of those losses is guaranteed since UVA and VPI play each other. So two losses out of six games, I think is all we need. Again, I overstate the obvious: nice to be calculating chances in mid November. Never thought we'd be doing that this season. :fingersx:
 
wesleyd21 said:
Still can't believe we're favored by 3.5 vs Miami.
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Why not?

I'm not buying the hype --Miami is the latest ACC media "flavor of the week" --CU, WF, VT, FSU, GT, MD, UNC and now UM have all been placed on the ACC perch at one time or another this season.

By the numbers, conference rank, all games:

Scoring O: 3.UM (28.4), 6.GT (22.8)
Scoring D: 1.GT (16.1), 9.UM (21.1)

Rush O: 1.GT (250), 6.UM (133)
Pass O: 9.UM (181), 12.GT (107)

Rush D: 3.UM (106), 6.GT (121)
Pass D: 3.GT (165), 4.UM (176)

Total O: 2.GT (358), 9.UM (314)
Total D: 3.UM (283), 4. GT (287)

Turnover margin: GT +3, UM -5

Miami is potent in the red zone, scoring in 36-38 attempts --this IS a concern. GT is 22-28. On the flip side of this, GT has allowed 22-30 scores in the red zone, UM 27-28.


Head-to-head ACC competition:

Duke: GT 27-0, UM 49-31
FSU: GT 31-28, UM 39-41 L
UNC: GT 7-28 L, UM 24-28 L
UVA: GT 17-24 L, UM 24-17 (OT)
VT: GT 17-20 L, UM 16-14

...other ACC competition:

GT: BC 19-16, CU 21-17
UM: WF 16-10

GT is at home and should, IMO, be favored. UM has won five games in a row by +2, +7(ot), +6, +2, +6. If GT can get a handle on the turnovers, we should have a good chance of coming out on top.
 
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