But today I actually feel very good about this game.
Statistically they haven't done much better this season than we have:
GT O: 426.27 YPG
GT D: 385.12 YPG
VT O: 387.67 YPG
VT D: 316.33 YPG
We make the assumption that the GT O vs VT D and GT D vs VT O will balance out by averaging the yards per game allowed and gained:
GT expected yards: (426.67+310.53)/2 = 368.50
VT expected yards: (387.67+385.17)/2 = 386.42
Which gives VT a 17.92 yard advantage.
But that doesn't tell the whole story. How do the strengths of GT match up with the strengths of VT? How about ball control? How about Rush vs Pass tendencies?
GT rush O: 318 plays, 5.23 YPC
GT pass O: 75 plays, 11.97 YPA
GT rush D: 4.19 YPC
GT pass D: 8.01 YPA
GT plays allowed: 381
GT total plays: 393
VT rush O: 266 plays, 4.7 YPC
VT pass O: 109 plays, 9.86 YPA
VT rush D: 3.59 YPC
VT pass D: 6.07 YPA
VT plays allowed: 393
VT total plays: 375
First we find the average YPC and YPA by averaging allowed and gained yards.
Then we find the ratio of pass and rush plays to total plays a team uses.
Then you multiply the ratios by their respective expected values per play and add the results.
This gives you the expected yards per play by each team.
Then you find the average of the number of plays allowed and executed by opposing O vs D to establish ball control.
Finally, divide that by the number of games and you get your answer:
GT expected yards:
[(318/393)(5.23+3.59)/2+(75/393)(11.97+6.07)/2](393+393)/(2*6) = 348.48
VT expected yards:
[(266/375)(4.70+4.19)/2+(109/375)(9.86+8.01)/2](375+381)/(2*6) = 362.25
which gives VT a 13.77 yard avantage.
(ironically GT actually helps VT by allowing more plays than VT normally executes)
Then you have to throw strength of schedule in there courtesy of the Sagarin ratings:
The Sagarin rankings give VTs SOS a .7894 (#2 in the nation) value and GTs SOS a .7449 value (#15 in the nation).
So not really knowing how these values were computed I will try to apply them in some way that makes sense...
So I will normalize the rankings so that the average is 1 and see what the result is:
GT multiplier = .7447*2/(.7894+.7447 ) = .9709
VT multiplier = .7894*2/(.7894+.7447 ) = 1.0291
GT expected yards = 338.34
VT expected yards = 372.81
Which gives VT a 34.47 yard advantage.
I would say that home field advantage covers this alone, but throw in emotion, revenge, and what's at stake and I think GT could win handily.
Thoughts?
